Comments on: More On Evan Longoria’s Contract

By: Jason Karl

Jason Karl — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:28:24 +0000

I looked up Google for articles/blogs on the Longoria contract shortly after seeing him hit two HRs inside 3 innings to take the Rays 4-3 up over the ChiSox in game 1 of the Div series.

Since April 25 2008, when this blog was written, Longoria has dominated, will be up there in BOTH the MVP and ROY voting, and could be the reason why the Rays win the pennant/Series.

$44m over six? I hope the Rays see some equity (as in fairness) and hand out some bonus money for Xmas!

By: Sky

Sky — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 21:20:25 +0000

I agree most minor leaguers tend to be overhyped. It’s like looking at all of college football and thinking everyone’s going to turn into an NFL player. But once you get to the NFL draft, even the media is able to realize there’s only seven rounds worth of talent that might contribute, and that’s with 53-man rosters. If you (or the Rays) were to only focus on the that same percentage of players that are in the minors, it’s surprising how projectable the top talent is.

http://www.tangotiger.net/MLE.html

Maybe I’ll do a post on it at some point, but check out these major league equivalencies,which take minor league stats from 2001-2003 and translate the performances into major league numbers (it’s like park-adjusting, but with leagues — oh, and there’s no regression, these aren’t projections). Most of the top names at each position are recognizable. And if you pay attention to the ages, it’s obvious the red guys aren’t prospects and the green guys outperform their rank in that list. Now, notice that MOST lwts scores (runs above average) aren’t that high, meaning it’s tough to project a minor leaguer to be a really good major leaguer. But you can pick out the ones that are the best bets, like in football. And, like in football, it could be argued that the best guys deserve some financial assurances before playing a down in the majors.

How to do that? Arbitration after the first season? Other ideas?

For more fun, scroll through the VORP ranking at BPro from 2003. How accurate is that ordering going forward? Most of those names stayed in the majors, but the quantity of their current peformance is all over the place. Not that much more in order than the MLE list.

By: Tom

Tom — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 20:51:22 +0000

Didn’t Markakis have a little hissy-fit about his contract too this winter? While MLB contracts are structured the way they are - with all that money guaranteed, unlike in the NFL - I don’t see much changing for the younger players. It is truly high-risk, high-reward for any MLB team to sign one of these guys. As we all know, there are plenty of top draft picks and MiLB stars that don’t do squat in the majors. Will be interesting to see how it plays out though. Does seem like there was more outcry among the young stars this year.