The discussion about batting the pitcher eighth has been spreading, thanks to Tony Larussa, Ned Yost, and the work done by the authors of The Book. I’m not going to try to convince you one way or the other (except to point out right here that The Book shows it can be around a two-run benefit over a full season), but I wanted to make some points related to the discussion.
First of all, the argument for batting the pitcher eighth is that you get a second leadoff hitter every time through the order except for the first. That means more runners on base for the 1-2-3 hitters to knock in. The argument against batting the pitcher eighth is two-fold: the pitcher’s spot will get about 20 additional plate appearances during the season, and the 5-6-7 hitters have a weaker hitter behind them.
Now, my points:
- Since the cost or benefit of this strategy is so small, you can’t argue its merits on intuition. Just because you think the pluses outweigh the negatives doesn’t mean anything. There are many complex variables to consider, and therefore you have to run a rigorous study to conclude anything with confidence. The authors of The Book did that. I’d like to see more people tackle it.
- Another lineup-optimization tactic is to put your best hitter second, meaning the ninth spot is closer to him than in traditional lineups. If, on the other hand, you’re batting Paul LoDuca second, putting the pitcher eighth probably doesn’t help as much.
- Batting a position player ninth, like Jason Kendall, is not a punishment for him. It’s actually a reward — instead of wasting all his times on base with the pitcher following him, he gets to score more runs by having Rickie Weeks bat next.
- Because the effect is so small, the data from one team from one season is meaningless. But that doesn’t mean USAToday won’t present it (see table at bottom). My biggest pet peeve, however, is that they listed OBP and SLG with both lineup configurations. Batting the pitcher 8th won’t increase your team’s batting line — if anything it will decrease it thanks to the pitcher spot coming to the plate more often. The benefit comes from having the positive events interact more often. Run scoring isn’t linear — clustering good things results in exponentially more runs.
- From The Book, the closer in hitting talent your pitcher is to your worst hitter, the less advantage you get from hitting the pitcher eighth. If the difference is as small as the difference between typical eighth and ninth place hitters in the American League, then you want to put your pitcher ninth (unless, of course, your pitcher is a better hitter than your worst position player.)
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
April 18th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I think the best part of this new trend (if you can call the actions of two teams a trend) is that non-traditional thinking is gaining a small foothold in baseball. Major League Baseball is so averse to anything that goes against the norm that it is refreshing to see intelligent use of the available information informing the decisions that are being made in the game.
April 18th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Larussa’s been willing to try strategies outside the box for a while, but it is nice to see another manager doing a similar thing (and it makes much more sense for high-OBP Kendall to bat ninth than overall-crappy-hitter Izturis to do it). Brian Bannister’s “coming out” story is also huge. The more that creative thinking permeates front offices and the more than MLB players grow up hearing about stats analysis, the more it will make it all accepted on the field and in the dugout. I’m not patient enough for that, though.
April 18th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Agreed. Bannister is getting a lot of press and the more success he has while saying the things he does, lends more credibility to those “new-fangled statistics.”
You are right about LaRussa and Yost, too. When TLR did it, people thought that he was over-thinking things to show that he is a ‘genius’. Now that someone else is doing it people are actually thinking it through. I’m sure the Cardinals wish they had someone besides Izturis to bat ninth, too (although he has been getting on base at a pretty good clip this year).