Rich Harden traded? Check. Joe Blanton traded? Check. A’s general manager Billy Beane now has two more bullets to fire, and there are some obvious trade partners to deal with. The trades that make the most sense almost never get done, but these look like near no-brainers:
- Mark Ellis to the Brewers — I don’t know the Brewers’ farm system well enough to predict what the A’s would get in return, but there isn’t a contender out there in need of a second base upgrade as much as Milwaukee. You see, Rickie Weeks just isn’t that good. He has the reputation as a high-ceiling guy, but his current Marcel projection is for a line of .247/.357/.409. That’s a touch above league-average. But Weeks is a really bad fielding second baseman, to the tune of at least one win below average. Yes, Brewer fans claim he’s improved this year, but three years worth of awful fielding data shouldn’t be ignored for half a year of fans’ eyes. Then you’ve got Ellis, who is also a slightly above average hitter — his .262/.335/.413 Marcel projection is actually a bit better than Weeks’ when you account for ballpark and league. And Ellis is the premiere defensive second baseman in the majors, worth two runs more than average. Putting it all together makes Ellis about 3.5 wins better over a full season, or 1.5 wins the rest of the way. That’s almost as much as the CC Sabathia upgrade.
Would the Brewers give up on Rickie Weeks? Maybe not. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this off-season, meaning he’s under team control for three more years. Ellis is only signed through the rest of this season, so maybe Milwaukee can spin the PR in some way that doesn’t totally kill Weeks’ confidence. Fake injury?
Would the A’s make this deal? Well, assuming the Brewers offer a decent package in return for Ellis, it would certainly be worth it. Beane’s trading away players still under control for more seasons, so trading a pending free agent wouldn’t be a big deal. But there’s one reason Oakland might want to hold on to Ellis — if they still hope to re-sign him this off-season. Ellis is a fantastic value, currently making $5MM and worth more like $18MM. Most teams don’t realize this fact and keeping him close to the vest probably makes it less likely anyone else figures it out.
- Huston Street to the Rays — This trade would probably include Reid Brignac and/or some young arms. Brignac’s light isn’t as bright as it was a few years ago, but if you trust the guys over at DRaysBay, he still projects to be a league-average hitter with a very good glove. Think of Jason Bartlett but six years younger. Street is arbitration eligible for two more seasons, meaning Beane really doesn’t need to trade him, although all reports point to an imminent deal. My guess at future salaries would be $6MM in 2009 and $9MM in 2010.
Why do the Rays need Street given their deep bullpen? Yes. For one, a relief ace is just as valuable as bullpen depth. But the Rays bullpen isn’t actually as good as its first half ERA. They have a number of relievers whose ERAs are hiding some question marks. Both Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival are flyball pitchers with flukily stingy homerun rates. When you look at their peripherals (like K/BB), you’d expect ERAs over 4.00 going forwad. JP Howell is probably the best guy in the pen right now (unless you put a ton of stock in Grant Balfour’s lights-out 20 IP), but even his ERA should be more like 3.50 going forward than the actual 2.75. Huston Street, on the other hand, has the skills to support a 3.00 ERA. That’s big — an upgrade of between 1 and 1.5 wins over the rest of the season. If the Rays decide they don’t want to pay Street’s salary in either of the next two years (and they might not considering the good chance of someone in their system turning into a bullpen ace down the road), he shouldn’t be difficult to trade, and they’d likely get almost as much back as they’d have to give up right now.
Popularity: 4% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Any chance Ellis could play a little shortstop? Perhaps the Dodgers could use him. I would think he could play as well as Nomar. The Rays will get a bullpen boost when both Percival and Al Reyes come off of the DL. Street would be a nice addition, if the Rays were to take on his high arbitration salary going forward.
vr, Xeifrank
July 18th, 2008 at 11:46 am
I like that you brought up Ellis playing short — I often toss out that idea when I don’t have to back up whether he’d actually be an asset there or not. Tango’s research show that on average second basemen are five runs worse at shortstop than second base. But I’m sure there’s a lot of variation between specific players and I’m sure there’s a learning curve. According to the Fans Scouting Report, Ellis’ two relative weaknesses are speed (shouldn’t matter) and arm strength, which would make a big difference shifting from second to short. Given how good he is at second (+20 runs), I don’t see how he could be worse than average at short. And that’s a solid upgrade for the Dodgers given that he’s a slightly above average hitter. Who could Beane finagle away from LA?
I like Reyes better than Percival going forward, but neither is better than an average reliever.