Not to pick on ESPN, because everyone out there choosing All-Stars has a similar list, but here are the outfield lineups their experts came up with for the Mid-Summer classic:
AL
Josh Hamilton
JD Drew
Carlos Quentin
NL
Ryan Braun
Pat Burrell
Ryan Ludwick
Granted, all six of those players are having great years, but there are clearly some better choices, especially in the National League. Let’s start with Ryan Braun, who I’m clearly not afraid to pick on. The good news is that he’s a much better fielder out in left (league average!) than he was at third base, but the bad news is that his .317 on-base percentage is lower than Bengie Molina’s. Even 20 homeruns won’t make up for that.
Instead of Braun, I’d go with Matt Holliday. Sure, his power is down (”only” 12 homeruns so far), but his slash line of .339/.425/.560 can only be touched by Pat Burrell. Adjusting for ballpark still leaves Holliday with a 150 OPS+, exactly the same as he posted in last year’s MVP campaign. Oh and he’s an above-average corner outfielder.
The other NL outfielder I have a problem with is Ryan Ludwick, who’s had about 50 PAs fewer than other full-timers, has an OBP of “only” .366, and hasn’t played well in the field. He’s definitely no Ryan Braun, but there are few more deserving options:
- Brian Giles — Yes, seriously. Sure, his slugging percentage is only .439, but thanks to a .399 OBP and playing home games in PETCO park he sports a 132 OPS+. Kosuke Fukudome, who has a very similar slash line but in a slight hitters’ park, has an OPS+ of 114. Giles has also flashed some sick leather, rating as a dozen runs better than average. He won’t win any homerun derbies, but Brian Giles is probably having the most underrated All-Star season of anyone at any position.
- Carlos Beltran — Sure, he’s got the same OBP as Ludwick and trails by .100 points of SLG. But he’s an excellent baserunner, has fifty more plate appearances, and plays Gold Glove center field. Compared to left, center is five runs more valuable over half a season. Then add in the fact that Beltran is ten runs better than the average center fielder and you’ve got a huge swing in value.
- Jason Bay — Start with Ryan Ludwick. Keep the OPS+. Add 60 plate appearances. Seems like you’ve now got something better, right? That’s Jason Bay.
The only reason I hope the starting NL outfield is Braun, Ludwick, and Burrell is that I would love to see one of them play center. And I usually root fo rthe American League.
Speaking of the American League, how about their starting outfield? I really don’t have any qualms about Josh Hamilton and JD Drew making the the cut, but Carlos Quentin is quite overrated. I’d take a few outfielders over him, but the one who clearly deserves the spot is Grady Sizemore. Like Carlos Beltran in the NL, Sizemore’s a superior center fielder whose offensive value is obscured by a low batting average. Quentin’s main claim to fame is his power, but Sizemore’s slugging percentage is actually sixteen points higher. With Sizemore’s OBP being only ten points lower, you’ve basically got the same hitter with strikingly better defensive value, since Quentin is a lousy corner outfielder
*** ***
Finally, here’s a totally unrelated thought. If Lance Berkman is voted the NL’s first baseman and Albert Pujols is voted the NL’s designated hitter, can they switch roles for the actual game? I can understand how the honor of being the starting first baseman should go to Berkman’s better 2008 performance, but if both guys are in the lineup anyway, shouldn’t you put Pujols’ glove in the field? I guess we’ll see how much these managers actually care about winning.
Popularity: 4% [?]
Share This
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.