Here’s the 30 MLB teams ranked by Baseball Prospectus’ Third-Order Winning Percentage, which accounts for run differential (like Pythag) plus strength of schedule. There are some surprises:
Team BP Red_Sox .641 Rays .641 White_Sox .588 Athletics .582 Cubs .577 Blue_Jays .564 Yankees .543 Braves .535 Phillies .533 Tigers .518 Diamondbacks .511 Mets .507 Cardinals .505 Rangers .505 Brewers .502 Angels .500 Orioles .496 Dodgers .494 Indians .473 Twins .467 Royals .464 Rockies .462 Giants .460 Marlins .459 Astros .450 Reds .434 Mariners .430 Padres .412 Pirates .393 Nationals .358
The Rays and Red Sox are the best of the best and third-place isn’t even close.
The Home Run Derby guys aren’t surprised to the Nationals bringing up the rear. I’m disappointed that the Giants are merely really bad and not historically awful, however.
Six of the top seven teams play in the AL (well done, Cubs). Eight of the bottom nine teams play in the NL (well done, Mariners).
The worst division-leader is the Angels, who have only outscored their opponents by nine runs and have played one of the easiest schedules in the majors. Even the Rangers have a better third-order winning percentage. I’m still open to betting on the A’s to win the division. Two caveats, however: Lackey’s back for the rest of the year and 4.5 games is pretty significant. 2:1 odds, anybody?
In addition to the Rays and Red Sox, the Blue Jays make it three teams in the AL East that have played more impressively than the Yankees. JP Ricciardi might be the GM least deserving of sitting on the hot seat.
If any team threatens the White Sox in the AL Central, it will be the Tigers. The Twins and Indians have some issues to work out.
The NL East should bring another great race in 2008 — but between the Braves and Phillies this time. Look for the Marlins to regress and the Mets to hang five to eight games back the whole way.
Is there some rule that the NL West has to be a cluster-f every year?
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.