If you missed the original article about my ranking of the top ten players of right now and its gazillion comments, go read it. Today I’m going to continue down through the top 25 players (well, top 23, but more on that later) and do some minor editing of the top ten.
Once again, the three numbers listed are my pseudo-scientific estimates of each player’s wins above average on offense and defense, plus a position adjustment. I also gave AL players a half win bonus for league difficulty.
I’m leaving the top eight spots the same as they were in my original article. Based on reader feedback, I bumped Grady Sizemore down half a win in the field, but was able to leave him in the same spot — by my ratings he’s now tied with Joe Mauer instead of Chase Utley. Also, I more heavily mentally-regressed Josh Hamilton’s offensive rating — I realized i was giving him too much credit for his bat based on less than a full season’s worth of plate appearances. That kicks him out of the top ten. And since there was no specific number ten before, I forced myself to fill spots nine and ten.
Here you go, my 8th through 23rd best position players right now — these are the players you want on your team for the second half of the season:
- Albert Pujols
- Alex Rodriguez
- Chipper Jones
- Chase Utley
- Grady Sizemore
- Joe Mauer
- David Wright
- Curtis Granderson
- Miguel Cabrera (4.5 off, -1.0 pos, -.5 field) — He has an outside shot of winning the AL MVP award this year. If he hits like he has in the past (he should) and if the Tigers make a run at the division (they should), then he’ll be running on the same platform that Justin Morneau did in 2006.
- Carlos Beltran (2.0 off, .5 pos, +1.0 field) — Mets fans just don’t appreciate what they have in this guy. Dan O’Dowd does — he was rumored to have offered Matt Holliday to the Mets in return for Beltran. $18MM per season is a good deal in today’s game.
- Hanley Ramirez (4.0 off, .5 pos, -1.0 field)– He’s an obvious top five player if he could really play shortstop. He’s supposedly improved his glove this season, but -1.0 in the field is still generous given his track record of -2.0.
- Josh Hamilton (2.5 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — Yes, he was number nine on my original list, but I needed to bump his offensive rating down a step. He’s on pace in 2008 to be 3.0 wins above replacement according to B-Ref, but that’s including a generous park adjustment and ignores that he wasn’t this good last year. Let’s just say that my mental regression wasn’t strong enough originally.
- David Ortiz (4.5 off, -1.5 pos, 0 field) — He’s one of the top five hitters in the game (once healthy, naturally), but can’t play the field. And if I gave any thought to baserunning, he’s bad at that, too.
- Matt Holliday (3.5 off, -.5 pos, .5 field) — Yes, he deserves a penalty for playing in Coors. But no, you shouldn’t just quote his road stats. I almost rated him a step worse in the field because of his poor arm, but, well, I didn’t.
- Brian McCann (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, 0 field) — He probably deserves a higher defensive rating, but I was already conservative with Mauer who’s definitely a notch ahead of McCann. You know, I’m probably overrating catchers a bit because they don’t play as much as players at other positions and would suffer in a replacement-level analysis. That’s why I’m listing McCann at the end of this tier.
- Jose Reyes (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Suddenly underrated, Reyes is extremely valuable to the Mets. He hasn’t fielded well this year — Mets fans call it lack of focus — but he has a track record of being a plus with the glove. Reyes is clearly the second-best shortstop in the majors. Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins supporters can go back to resting on their MVP and Gold Glove laurels.
- Lance Berkman (4.0 off, -1.0 pos, 0 field) — Here’s a good target for some quality over-reacting to 2008 numbers. He’s really good, but not 2008 good, and has no zero defensive value.
- Mark Teixeira (3.0 off, -1.0 pos, 1.0 field) — Remember early last year when everyone was screaming about his power outage? He might not get back to hitting 40+ homeruns, but he’s still a stud (and walking more and striking out less). It’s the glove that separates him from most of the 1B pack.
- Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has a lot of room to grow. One reason I really like making these lists is to see guys like Longoria (unproven young players with all-around games) fall next to guys like Berkman (gritty veterans with big bats and MVP campaigns). Do you think Ed Wade would trade Berkman for Longoria? No way, although he probably should, especially considering Longoria’s contract.
- Brian Roberts (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — I originally had him much higher, but realized I was overreacting to two good seasons out of many. Where’s Ian Kinsler? Off taking extra infield practice.
- BJ Upton (1.5 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — He’s getting a LOT of crap for his decreased power this year and looking lazy in center field. But his OBP is still in the .380 range and he’s still an above-average fielder even if he has more room to grow. More room to grow — that’s become a theme for Tampa players.
- Mark Ellis (.5 off, 0 pos, 2.0 field) — You’re probably sick of me touting this guy by now, but he’s one of the best fielders in the game and has a slightly above-average bat to boot. An average-fielding second baseman would have to hit like Nick Markakis or Jermaine Dye to be equally valuable.
- Rick Ankiel (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Remember when I predicted last off-season that Drew wouldn’t be more than a fourth outfielder? Yeah, I was wrong. He’s shown power, the ability to take a walk, and plus-range in center. Outfielder arm ratings aren’t available for 2008 yet, but I think he’ll score fine in that department, too. I encourage Ryan Braun apologists to compare their 2008 stat lines — Ankiel’s better even before taking defense into account.
In case you’re curious, listed below are the players that fall in the tier below numbers 16 to 23 listed above. I’ve only estimated ratings for about 70 players so far, so there’s a chance someone has slipped through the cracks. In no particular order…
Scott Rolen, Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, Vlad Guerrero, JD Drew, Nick Markakis, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Guillen, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, David DeJesus, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Milton Bradley.
As always, feel free to disagree with me in the comments. Please make sure to bring some data or logic to the party, though.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:40 am
mark ellis? no ryan braun, no prince fielder, this guy is a joke
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Agreed, DJS.
Where’s Aramis? Mike Lowell (your pick before, not mine)?
Braun? Fielder? Even Corey Hart.
I’m not sure I can take any list that seriously that puts Mark Ellis in the top 25 player in the game.
There’s a reason that intelligent GM’s pay a lot of money for players- and Mark Ellis isn’t one such player.
I don’t know why I bothered coming back here.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Braun and Fielder are currently having good, not great seasons; they could bounce back, but neither has a long enough track record of greatness to outweigh this year’s performance; and neither is earning many points for defense. As for Corey Hart…he’s not even in the running. Sorry, Brewers fans.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I’ve got no problem with folks taking issue with the rankings, but a little rationale for your points of view would be nice. Bring something besides negativity to the party.
From our Lowell discussion, I bumped him down a bit both on offense and defense. See my previous notes on Aramis — he’s good-but-not-great with the bat and has a history of poor fielding.
Ryan Braun is an overrated hitter. His career line is now .350 OBP, .598 SLG, which is really good, but on par with guys like Texeira, Bay, Burrell, and Dunn, who all make up for less power with better OBPs. Burrell and Dunn are poor fielders and haven’t appeared yet. Bay is a mediocre fielder, a touch better than Braun, and barely made honorable mention. Tex has the most defensive value of those guys, even though he’s a 1B, because he’s awesome with the glove.
Prince Fielder, even with a disappointing 2008 is still rated as a great hitter — with Manny, Holliday, Wright, and Utley. He has even less defensive value than Braun, though, as he’s a poor fielding first baseman.
Corey Hart, well, to be honest, I hadn’t rated him. Oops. Let’s see… call him 1.5 offensively (might be more like 1.0) thanks to a poor OBP. That’s Glaus, Giles, Rios, Tejada territory. He’s a corner outfielder so that’s -.5 position. As for fielding, I’m not sure. A little above average? There was talk of him playing center before this year… call it .5. Overall he comes out the same as Aramis, Fielder, Rollins, Dunn and a bunch of others two steps below the honorable mentions listed.
GMs tend to pay a lot of money for things like AVG, HRs, RBIs, and Barry Zito, which have various degrees of usefulness. Is it any wonder that Mark Ellis plays in Oakland? Oh, and see what he gets paid this off-season — it won’t be what he’s worth but it will be a lot more than $5MM. I think we all agree Ozzie Smith was pretty damn good, right? Well, Ellis isn’t too much worse in the field — slightly easier position, and slightly worse relative to position — and he’s better with the bat.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Sky is being kind in his response to DJS and Julius. I’m always amazed when I read sound, logically rationed-out arguments like this column, with consistently referenced sources, and then read insulting responses based on the name recognition of someone’s favorite players alone. Yet, I see it all the time.
None of the people mentioned by either of these two would make my top 20, though the final 5 spots might be debatable, and just like them, I didn’t do any of the research Sky did. Should I now give my list of pets and then insult Sky?
Ignorant ill-informed posts by folks who confuse strong opinions with good arguments … I don’t know why I came back here (to the Response section).
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
“I encourage Ryan Braun apologists to compare their 2008 stat lines — Ankiel’s better even before taking defense into account.”
Ankiel’s current WARP = 3.3
Braun’s current WARP = 5.1
While WARP isn’t a perfect stat, it is a stat that accounts for both fielding and hitting and Braun blows him away. On top of that:
Ankiel’s career EqA = .285
Braun career EqA = .309
You’re also crazy speaking that highly of Ellis. He is vastly underrated and is a great defender but come on. A man with a career EqA of .260 (below average) should not be picked over those players.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:18 pm
So your defense of Ryan Braun over Rick Ankiel is predicated on two things:
* The Davenport Translations think that Ryan Braun is almost two full wins better than Rick Ankiel on defense.
* Braun is a better hitter than Ankiel if you include the four seasons where Ankiel was a pitcher.
The first simply isn’t true, looking at ANY evaluation system based on play-by-play data. The second may be true, but I don’t know if it’s especially relevant.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
This list is supposed to reflect the best players in baseball today. Anyone who would rather have Mark Ellis than Ian Kinsler this year is insane. Kinsler is the MVP of the A.L. right now. 5th in baseball in VORP (I didn’t even bother scrolling on for pages looking for Ellis), 24 steals in 25 attempts. Mark Ellis’ OPS + this year: 97. Below average. How can a below average hitter be one of the top 25 players in Baseball.
July 24th, 2008 at 3:49 am
I am pretty sure Ozzie Smith was one of the best players in baseball at his peak, when he was probably still a below average hitter. Fantastic defense can count for a lot.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Ryan Braun had his defensive reputation tarnished last season. He has actually been a good defender this season. Based on defensive win shares, Ankiel and Braun are pretty equal ( Ankiel 2.2 and Braun is 2.1). Anybody that would try to convince you that Braun is a better fielder than Ankiel is crazy but the difference isn’t significant.
Offensively, its shocking that you think they are on par with each other. Even with a regression on Braun’s part, he still has a higher OPS. Braun will also steal you 15 bags and a rate of 75%+. Also, Braun worth nearly 3 more win shares offensively. Braun also has a significantly higher VORP (32.2 to 26.9). It also should be said that Ankiel is playing up to his 90th percentile PECOTA while Braun is hitting in his 40th percentile.
July 24th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Wow, good stuff. Too bad I have to work sometimes and can’t always keep up.
Durbs — Thanks.
Dave B. — Ugh, I hate WARP. The replacement level is WAY low and the fielding metric is horrible. Why? I’ll just point out that it’s not based on play-by-play data.
Colin — Thanks. I wonder what Ankiel’s EqA is since he became a real MLB hitter. And see below where I agree that Braun is a better hitter than Ankiel.
James — When I say the best players in baseball right now, “right now” does not refer to the first half of 2008. Think of it as referring to the second half of 2008. It’s been shown by lots of research that the best way to predict performance going forward is not just to look at the most recent 400 PAs. You want way more data, if it exists. This isn’t an arbitrary choice. To quote MGL (he’s referring to Jose Vidro)…
“Where do [non-believers] think that we get our projection algorithms from? From real life! When REAL LIVE PLAYERS who are 33 years old hit .780 in their careers and then .577 in 3 months, they hit .740 (or whatever the number is) from then on in! We don’t just make these projections up. They are based on what players actually do, given their histories.”
Ian Kinsler’s offensive track record does not support what he did in the first half of 2008. Going forward, he’s likely to hit closer to his career average than his 2008 line. But even if you’re wary of that, there’s also the fact that Kinsler is a very poor fielding second baseman — I’ve got him rated as a full win worse than average. If he was a full win better than average he’d have a shot at the top 10.
Blackadder — I love using Ozzie as an argument for Ellis. Ellis obviously isn’t a shortstop and isn’t quite as good over at second as Ozzie (or Mark Belanger) was at short. But he’s also a better hitter. There’s a reason guys like Ellis, Scott Rolen, Coco Crisp, and Adrian Beltre are still underrated — most people still don’t believe (or pay attention to) the importance of fielding.
Dave B. — It sounds like you watch a lot of Brewers games. Would you call Braun an average left fielder? Slightly above average? Slightly worse? What have announcers, writers, and Ned Yost said about him out there?
Even if Braun and Ankiel were both average fielders relative to their respective positions, Ankiel is still a full win more valuable defensively because of his position. Why? Just imagine moving Braun to center and Ankiel to left.
My comment about Braun in Ankiel’s blurb was very poorly worded. My bad. Braun is the better hitter and I actually do have Braun rated higher than Ankiel on offense (3.0 to 2.0). Ankiel has not been better in 2008, either — but neither has Braun. They’re neck and neck. They have almost exactly the same OPS+ (131ish) — you can’t use plain OPS because Ankiel’s edge in OBP makes up for Braun’s larger edge in SLG). With Braun’s track record and age, I agree he’s the better hitter going forward. I’m still convinced Ankiel is better overall, though, because of his defense. If you call Braun an average left fielder instead of -.5, he deserves a mention in the tier below the top 23.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
How about Adrian Gonzalez? A terrific defensive first baseman and blossoming slugger. His stats aren’t on pace with Teixera, Berkman etc. but he also plays in Petco. I think he’s overlooked.
Just out of curiosity, will you be doing top 25 pitchers? that’d be cool
July 26th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I love Gonzalez. I’ve got him in the tier below those I listed as honorable mentions, although I only gave him a +.5 for fielding at first base. Should it be a +1.0, you think?
As for pitchers, I’d like to, but the stats I’d want to use aren’t as readily available. I’ll look into a mass data project.