As for pitchers, I’d like to, but the stats I’d want to use aren’t as readily available. I’ll look into a mass data project.

Just out of curiosity, will you be doing top 25 pitchers? that’d be cool

Durbs — Thanks.

Dave B. — Ugh, I hate WARP. The replacement level is WAY low and the fielding metric is horrible. Why? I’ll just point out that it’s not based on play-by-play data.

Colin — Thanks. I wonder what Ankiel’s EqA is since he became a real MLB hitter. And see below where I agree that Braun is a better hitter than Ankiel.

James — When I say the best players in baseball right now, “right now” does not refer to the first half of 2008. Think of it as referring to the second half of 2008. It’s been shown by lots of research that the best way to predict performance going forward is not just to look at the most recent 400 PAs. You want way more data, if it exists. This isn’t an arbitrary choice. To quote MGL (he’s referring to Jose Vidro)…

“Where do [non-believers] think that we get our projection algorithms from? From real life! When REAL LIVE PLAYERS who are 33 years old hit .780 in their careers and then .577 in 3 months, they hit .740 (or whatever the number is) from then on in! We don’t just make these projections up. They are based on what players actually do, given their histories.”

Ian Kinsler’s offensive track record does not support what he did in the first half of 2008. Going forward, he’s likely to hit closer to his career average than his 2008 line. But even if you’re wary of that, there’s also the fact that Kinsler is a very poor fielding second baseman — I’ve got him rated as a full win worse than average. If he was a full win better than average he’d have a shot at the top 10.

Blackadder — I love using Ozzie as an argument for Ellis. Ellis obviously isn’t a shortstop and isn’t quite as good over at second as Ozzie (or Mark Belanger) was at short. But he’s also a better hitter. There’s a reason guys like Ellis, Scott Rolen, Coco Crisp, and Adrian Beltre are still underrated — most people still don’t believe (or pay attention to) the importance of fielding.

Dave B. — It sounds like you watch a lot of Brewers games. Would you call Braun an average left fielder? Slightly above average? Slightly worse? What have announcers, writers, and Ned Yost said about him out there?

Even if Braun and Ankiel were both average fielders relative to their respective positions, Ankiel is still a full win more valuable defensively because of his position. Why? Just imagine moving Braun to center and Ankiel to left.

My comment about Braun in Ankiel’s blurb was very poorly worded. My bad. Braun is the better hitter and I actually do have Braun rated higher than Ankiel on offense (3.0 to 2.0). Ankiel has not been better in 2008, either — but neither has Braun. They’re neck and neck. They have almost exactly the same OPS+ (131ish) — you can’t use plain OPS because Ankiel’s edge in OBP makes up for Braun’s larger edge in SLG). With Braun’s track record and age, I agree he’s the better hitter going forward. I’m still convinced Ankiel is better overall, though, because of his defense. If you call Braun an average left fielder instead of -.5, he deserves a mention in the tier below the top 23.

Offensively, its shocking that you think they are on par with each other. Even with a regression on Braun’s part, he still has a higher OPS. Braun will also steal you 15 bags and a rate of 75%+. Also, Braun worth nearly 3 more win shares offensively. Braun also has a significantly higher VORP (32.2 to 26.9). It also should be said that Ankiel is playing up to his 90th percentile PECOTA while Braun is hitting in his 40th percentile.