Update: The Top 25
I’ve read a lot of articles answering questions like “which player has had the best season so far” or “which player would you rather have for the next five years” or “which player has the most trade value”. But rarely do people address who the best player is right now. That is, for the second half of the 2008 season, who would you most want to have on your team?
Naturally, I’m considering offensive production, position, and fielding ability, the last two of which often get overlooked. I’m not going to overreact to 2008 stats, because 2006 and 2007 are probably more important. And I’m only going to look at position players for now.
The ratings represent my unscientific (although I look at some stats) estimate of number of wins above average over a full season. Feel free to ignore them or take issue with them. Here’s an explanation of position adjustments. The fielding ratings are relative to each player’s position. I also included a half win bonus for all AL players to account for the difference in pitching quality between leagues (not listed, however).
That’s enough setup. Here are my ten best position players in the majors right now:
- Albert Pujols (5.5 off, -1 pos, 1.5 field) — His bat is the best in the game and his amazing glove at first base makes up for the fact that he does only play first base. There are some injury concerns, but not enough to really worry.
- Alex Rodriguez (5.0 off, 0 pos, 0 field) — He can match Pujols’ power, but not his on-base abilities. You would think ARod would be a plus defender at third from his Gold Glove shortstop days, but no — some metrics have even put him a bit below-average recently.
- Chase Utley (3.5 off, 0 pos, 1.5 field) — There are ten players who can match Utley’s bat, but none of them can match his defensive value. His glove rated as even better than this in 2007, too. He wins the tie-breaker over Chipper thanks to his relative youth.
- Chipper Jones (4.5 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Thanks to his insane on-base abilities, I see Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz (assuming he’s healthy) as the only two hitters other than Pujols and ARod who can match him at the plate. There isn’t much doubt that he’s now an asset in the field, too, which was not the case in his younger days.
- Grady Sizemore (2.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — I wrote somewhere else that Grady Sizemore is Joe DiMaggio reincarnated. Sizemore isn’t quite that good at the plate, but I’m astounded that he doesn’t receive more recognition as the complete package of a ballplayer.
- Joe Mauer (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, .5 field) — This one’s a real surprise to me. I had no idea Mauer was quite this valuable. I even bumped him down half a win in the field so he wouldn’t be any higher. Yes, he does deserve an offensive rating that high — he has the eighth highest on-base percentage since the beginning of 2006, right between Lance Berkman and Manny Ramirez. And he’s a catcher with an excellent reputation.
- David Wright (3.5 off, 0 def, .5 field) — I think Wright is actually a little bit underrated offensively, because he doesn’t put up huge power numbers. They’re merely pretty good to go along with an excellent on-base percentage. 40+ homeruns are sexy. .400+ OBPs are not. Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez, Prince Fielder, and Utley are the other players I rated as 3.5 bats.
- Curtis Granderson (1.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — Honestly, he could be even higher than this based on his amazing 2007, but I’m going to demand he do more before I completely buy the +2.5 bat or the +2.5 glove. My conservatism could also be treated as a proxy for Granderson’s complete inability to hit lefties, which really hurts in high-leverage situations.
- Josh Hamilton (3.0 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — While a touch overhyped right now thanks to his gaudy RBI total and the Home Run Derby, you can’t ignore a center fielder with bat like his.
- To Close To Call — I’ve got six players at the next level below Wright/Granderson/Hamilton: Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran (in no particular order). My gut says to go with Beltran or Cabrera, but I probably shouldn’t nitpick the difference between 10th and 15th on the list when they’re all a half step behind 9th.
If you’re curious, after the players listed in the tenth spot, my next group consists of Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Milton Bradley, Evan Longoria, Jose Reyes, Rick Ankiel, Brian Roberts, Mike Lowell, BJ Upton, and Mark Ellis.
What do you think? Who’s too high? Who did I miss that should have made the top ten?
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
July 21st, 2008 at 10:22 am
Mike Lowell in the top-20? I thought he was a below-average-fielding 3B these days…
July 21st, 2008 at 10:25 am
I don’t think Lowell’s as great as he used to be, but I put him at slightly above average — I’m open to being convinced otherwise, though. (Quickly, Colin Wyers’ STATS ZR projection has him at +3 runs.)
And don’t hold me to anyone outside the top 15. I’m already rethinking my top ten ; )
July 21st, 2008 at 10:29 am
Why is Grady getting +1.5 for his glove? That is extremely generous.
July 21st, 2008 at 10:37 am
Mike Lowell? Um… no. Not at all. For comparison purposes:
Casey Blake, career 105 OPS+. Mike Lowell, career 111 OPS+.
Additionally, Blake has gone 99, 114, 101, 116 the last for years, (430 total)
Lowell: 77, 104, 124, 118 (423 total)
While Lowell is clearly the better player, I don’t think he’s so much better than Casey Blake to be included in a top 25 discussion.
July 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am
Good list. Hard to believe Hanley Ramirez doesn’t crack the top 10. Is his fielding still such a liability?
July 21st, 2008 at 10:45 am
UZR loves Grady in center (more than +1.5). Although I do remember the BIS data not loving him quite as much. Colin’s STATS projection is +.8 wins.
I’m hoping this discussion gets off Lowell at some point. But I will point out that Casey Blake is not a good third baseman (-1.0 STATS projection).
July 21st, 2008 at 10:49 am
Grady, 06-08 BIS: +4, 0, +6
Grady, 06-08 RZR AL ranks: 6/10, 8/10, 4/10
I’m not quite sure why I’m arguing against him, but it’s a +0.5 glove, not +1.5. Scouting evals would back that up, too; good speed, but doesn’t get great jumps, and not a very strong arm.
July 21st, 2008 at 10:50 am
Yeah sorry about harping on the Lowell thing, he just seems like an odd toss-in when he’s not a superlative 3B and he’s equivalent to a guy like Casey with the bat.
As for the Grady/Granderson +1.5, it does seem a little odd. I’m a huge Indians fan, but kind of think you need to give Granderson the nod on the defensive end. Grady rates as an excellent defender in most systems but there are few that ding him. Granderson is almost universally loved with the glove, regardless of the system.
FWIW, THT Fielding has them 3rd and 4th in the AL at .933 and .938, respectively.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:07 am
I don’t pay enough attention to details, but where did Markakis come out in your rankings?
July 21st, 2008 at 11:12 am
Ok, good point on the Grady fielding — probably wasn’t as conservative with him as I was with others. Consider him unofficially bumped down to +1.0, with consideration being given to +.5 (although that’s not likely).
Theoretical point for listing Grady as 6/10, 8/10, and 4/10 — that pretty much means he’s really 6/14, 8/14, and 4/14 (or maybe 7/14, 9/14, 5/14), as nobody else is good enough overall to play enough to qualify. There should be 14 full-time-equivalents in the AL per season. And if you look at the AL across that three year period (or currently) who’s better in the field than Grady? Granderson for sure and maybes for Hunter, Coco, who else?
July 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
Soccer Dad — I think he’s somewhere between 30th and 50th — a good-but-not-great bat and mediocre outfield defense isn’t really that impressive.
FYI, I’ve only rated about 75 guys as of right now. Given the earlier reaction to the top ten, I’d say there’s likely going to be a follow-up on the 25 and maybe the top 50.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:18 am
The AL Central is lucky to have two outstanding centerfielders in Sizemore and Granderson. But I wouldn’t trade Sizemore straight up for Granderson. Granderson’s a better defender. Sizemore gets bad jumps and has to make diving catches to make up for it, whereas Granderson gets good jumps and makes the catches Sizemore dives for look routine. Sizemore has a little more power but Granderson hits for higher average. And regarding Granderson’s inability to hit lefties - this year he’s hitting them for .271/.328/.373 (righties at .297/.363/.504), which isn’t good but is a giant improvement over last year.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:26 am
“…as nobody else is good enough overall to play enough to qualify”
This isn’t fair, because that brings offense into the equation, too. It’s entirely possible that those other four outfielders are better fielders than Sizemore, and don’t play as much because they can’t hit. Nobody is calling Grady’s hitting assessment into question.
Over the last three years, among the top 14 in CF innings in the AL, he’s 8/14, 10/14, and 5/14.
There’s not much of an argument for Granderson as a better hitter though. Eric Cieo conveniently doesn’t mention that Sizemore walks almost twice as much as Granderson. His career OBP is 25 points higher.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:36 am
I think Eric was saying that both are really good, but that he’d go with Sizemore if pressed (and he’s a Tigers fan).
The other thing about Granderson vs. Sizemore is that Granderson’s much less proven. I hate that phrase, but I’m much more confident in Sizemore’s 2007 performance that Granderson’s. When rating Sizemore, I applied more mental regression to the mean (both offensively and defensively). In 2007, Grandy’s on a perfect +1.5 offensive pace.
I probably should have mentally regressed Josh Hamilton more on offense, too. I’d rather have any my 10th-15th guys than the Natural the more I think about it.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:50 am
Aramis Ramirez? One name that puts up numbers every year, has turned into an above average defender, plays in a major market and is never spoken of!
Don’t know how you can bring up Mike Lowell and fail to mention Aramis Ramirez.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:59 am
“Aramis Ramirez… has turned into an above average defender”
He has? Please bring the data to the party. I appreciate the comment, Julius, but I’m not going to take your word for, no disrespect intended.
(No bonus or penalty points for major markets or hype, by the way.)
July 21st, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I didn’t know it was so hard to look up stats.
The major markets/hype was my own curiosity that this guy doesn’t get much pub, but you’re obviously giving bonus points for Lowell playing in Boston.
July 21st, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Julius, I’m not giving any credit for playing in Boston or anything else superficial like that. And honestly, I’ve always heard a fair amount about Aramis (but not as much as I have about Lowell, jeesh.) In fact, if you think I have a “think” for Lowell, read this: http://skyking162.com/2007/10/potential-mistake-signing-mike-lowell/
When I asked for data, I meant anything to back up your claim that Aramis’ fielding had improved. Looking at THT’s fielding stats, Aramis and Lowell are both slightly above average this year in terms of (plays + OOZ)/BIZ. So that supports your argument. But we should be looking at track records, too. And Lowell is traditionally a much better fielder. I will consider this new information, though.
Looking at their offensive numbers again at B-Ref, it’s pretty obvious Aramis is a +2.0 guy (talk about consistent). I had Lowell at +2.0, but I’m going to bump him down to +1.5. With a league-adjustment, that makes them equally valuable without considering fielding. I still have to give the edge to Lowell, although I don’t know by how much. +.5 to -.5? Smaller? +.5 to 0? 0 to -.5? I’m leaning towards the last one. Either way, I won’t have to write about either of them in my top twenty five now.
July 21st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Down year offensively but quite a track record…
Jimmy Rollins?
I know you mentioned Hanley Ramirez outside your top 10 but I can’t see how he may not be the best player in the entire game. A SS with that type of offense and speed!!!
July 21st, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Greg, I was wondering when someone would ask about the reigning NL MVP. I’ve had my response ready to go, so thanks.
Here’s the thing — his track record actually isn’t all that impressive and, in fact, his 2008 season wasn’t all that impressive. His 2008 OPS+ is 98. Here’s every other season where he had significant playing time, going backwards from 2006: 101, 97, 102, 90, 85, 92. 2008 fits PERFECTLY. How about 2007? 118. Yup, “just” 118. Why? His OBP was merely average accounting for the Phillies’ home park. Throughout his career Rollins has fallen between -.5 and 0 batting wins. Last year he was at +1.5. I gave him an offensive rating of +.5, which seems quite fair. Along with +.5 for position and +.5 for fielding, he’s currently 70th out of the 76 players I’ve rated, next to Xavier Nady and Casey Kotchman.
As for Hanley, you’ll see him soon as a member of my top 25. In fact, he’s rated as high as he can without cracking the top ten. It’s his fielding that kills him, consistently -20 runs on defense before 2008. Reports are that he’s improved a lot, but even with my generous estimate of -10 runs, he doesn’t quite do it for me. It’s only out of a technicality that we have to refer to him as a shortstop.
July 21st, 2008 at 7:41 pm
I checked the numbers based on the last two calendar years, w/ WPA/LI and BIS’ fielding rating. i did a positional adj for WPA/LI so i’ll just give offense and defense
TOP 10
Pujols- 4.7, 2.7
Utley- 4.3, 3.0
Berkman- 4.9, 1.0
Beltran- 3.2, 2.0
Holliday- 4.5, 0.2
A-Rod- 4.7, -0.1
Wright- 4.0, 0.6
Chipper- 4.5, 0.0
Aramis- 4.0, 0.3
Sizemore- 3.2, 0.4
Others of note:
Howard- 3.9, -0.4
Tex- 2.7, 0.4
Rollins- 2.2, 0.8
Granderson- 1.6, 1.2
Hanley- 3.6, -2.0
Cabrera- 3.5, -2.1
July 21st, 2008 at 9:56 pm
My STATS projections hate A-Ram on defense, sad to say. I’ve got the IDs mapped for RZR back to 2004 now, so I’ll see if it’s any kinder to him.
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
[…] skyking162 » Top Ten Position Players Of Right Now Granderson ranks 8th and Cabrera is somewhere between 10-15. Clearly defense counts. […]
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Sky-
Granderson is hitting .295 against lefties this year! Compared to .297 against righties. Granted, he’s not hitting for power as well against southpaws (SLG: .502 vs. .393), but at least he’s getting on base. Leyland has been starting him at leadoff against lefties lately; last year and early this year he often was sat against lefties.
Good article.
July 22nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
[…] SkyKing162 writes about the Top Ten Position Players right now. […]
July 22nd, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Hats, cool stuff. I love Fangraphs one-, two-, and three-year features. Utley’s crazy fielding rating sticks out — he’s good. One thing to note is that Fangraphs doesn’t make any park adjustments for their win probability tables, so hitters get overrated in hitters’ parks, and vice versa.
Colin, I’m excited. Current talent projections are a huge void on the ‘net. (Until now, I think.)
Ryan, many lefties have learned how to hit against lefties over their careers, and often times early struggles are just a fluke. That being said, half a season of decent performance against lefties is encouraging for Granderson, but nothing concrete. And thanks.
July 22nd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
The Top 23 has been posted:
http://skyking162.com/2008/07/my-top-25-position-players-of-right-now/