That was a question posed recently on a discussion board. With two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth, would you ever consider walking in the tying run?
The idea seems crazy, but what if Barry Bonds was the guy at the plate and the guy batting behind him wasn’t that good. Let’s say Bengie Molina to pick a not-so-crazy example. Might it be worth avoiding the possibility of Bonds driving in both the tying run and winning run and instead hope to win in extra innings? Let’s see…
Walking Bonds
Assuming the next batter to have a lowly .300 OBP, you’ve got a 30% chance of losing the game in the current inning. The 70% of the time that the game goes to extra innings, you’ve got a 50% chance of winning the game.
chance of winning = .7*.5 = 35%
chance of losing = .3 + .7*.5 = 65%
Challenging Bonds
In 2004, when Bonds wasn’t intentionally walked, he did this…
OUT: 50%
BB: 23%
1B: 12%
2B/3B: 6%
HR: 9%
If Bonds makes an out, you win 100% of the time. With a walk, it’s the same as the scenario above. With any hit, let’s assume two runs score and you lose — that happens 27% of the time.
chance of winning = .5*1 + .23*.35 + (.12+.06+.09)*0 = 58%
chance of losing = .5*0 + .23*.65 + (.12+.06+.09)*1 = 42%
Conclusion
Actually, I won’t force one particular conclusion down your throats. You can pick whether you want to win 35% of the time or 58% of the time.
In order to make the walk-Bonds chances come close to the dont-walk-Bonds chances for other hypothetical situations, you can change the model in three ways:
- Make the Bonds-like hitter way better (.400/.600/.1.000?)
- Make the hitter behind Bonds way worse (.150/.200/.300?)
- Assume that the chances of winning in extra innings favor your team to a greater extent (maybe your bullpen has Mo and Papelbon while your opponents have the 2007 Rays bullpen).
So yes, it is technically possible to create a scenario where walking in the tying run is the intelligent move. But one of those scenarios will never, ever exist in a real major league baseball game.
Mike Fast took this idea and ran with it. Check out his article over at The Hardball Times examining the history facing top hitters with the game on the line in the bottom of the ninth.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
In an earlier inning would you walk the Bonds-like hitter to let across the tying run?
July 16th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Tango’s done the research on when to walk Bonds based on win probability. Here’s a chart based on win probability with the Bonds team at home:
http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbondschart2.html
And on the road:
http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbondschart.html
The only two situations with the bases loaded where a walk is an option occur with two outs top or bottom of the ninth. Down three runs, the smart move is to issue the walk. Down two runs, it’s a push. There are a few other instances where the chart lists “Face Him” instead of “DO NOT WALK”. They tend to occur more up by three runs (occasionally two), later in the game, and with fewer outs in the inning.
July 21st, 2008 at 9:00 am
How do you said “Tying run” in Spanish????
Thank you!
July 21st, 2008 at 9:01 am
how do you say “tying run” in Spanish??
thank you