Bay Vs. Manny
Posted by: Sky in Baseball, tags: dodgers, jason bay, manny ramirez, pirates, red soxFrom 2005 through 2008 (last week some time) here are the VORP leaders for corner outfielders:
Player VORP Vlad Guerrero 211 Matt Holliday 208 Manny Ramirez 197 Jason Bay 161 Magglio Ordonez 153 Carlos Lee 147 Pat Burrell 143 Adam Dunn 143 Jermaine Dye 139 Bobby Abreu 138 Carl Crawford 119 J.D. Drew 110 Barry Bonds 108 Alfonso Soriano 106 Brian Giles 105 Moises Alou 105
If you figure Bay’s glove is worth a dozen runs per year more than Manny’s, then they’re a wash overall.
Money-wise, the Sox would have paid Manny $20MM next year. Instead, they’ll pay $8MM to Bay plus about $2MM to Bay this year, or $10MM total. (The would have paid Manny’s remaining $7MM 2008 salary either way.) So, in summary the trade from the Red Sox eyes is…
Gains
$10MM
Removing Manny’s clubhouse issues
Washes
Manny’s vs. Bay’s production
Draft picks from losing Manny vs. draft picks from losing Bay
Losses
Craig Hansen (going forward, certainly not this year)
Brandon Moss
Manny’s 2010 option
Here’s one good question I read somewhere: If the Dodgers are ok with Manny’s clubhouse antics, why not instead sign Barry Bonds, who’s better and wouldn’t have cost Andy LaRoche?
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.
August 6th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
You really think for the last 2 months of the season Barry would be a better bet than Manny? I have no doubt that, while I’m sure he would be good and am intrigued why he hasn’t sparked more interest, Barry would be FAR FAR behind Manny in terms of on-the-field impact. Bonds himself has said he’d take like 2-3 weeks to get back into hitting shape, right? And after not seeing any pitching, let alone MLB caliber arms, for basically a year, I would not expect him to be the Barry of 2007 or even close for the rest of 2008. Manny was a much better option for the Dodgers this year, but they did pay for it with LaRoche.
August 6th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
You’re ignoring the age factor here as well. Every day these guys age is going to be a lot harder on Manny than it is on Bay. They’re both probably past their prime, but a 36-year-old’s production falls a lot faster than a 29-year-old’s.
Also, is VORP adjusted for league or park? Maybe those things balance out, but Bay was in a terrible park for a right-handed power hitter. Though he was also in the NL.
August 7th, 2008 at 6:23 am
But the point is that, if they were willing at some point to put up with the media circus and clubhouse issues that Manny brings, they should have been willing to put up the similar (although, I suspect, less severe) issues that Bonds would bring. As such, they could have signed him at any point, including much earlier in the season, when he would have cost nothing but money.
Of course, maybe they were listening to Bill James, who is convinced that, despite Bonds being on a rate basis probably the second best hitter in the NL over the previous two years, he had nothing left after 2007. If so, I almost feel sorry for them.
August 7th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
I think the Dodgers just wanted to trade LaRoche so people would stop shitting all over them for not playing him.
August 8th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
The Angels better trade Brandon Wood soon, so they don’t have people shitting on them come playoff time.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Bay is solid (I wish the Rays had signed him), but he is no Manny. Manny strikes fear into opposing pitchers whereas Bay does not have that same presence at the plate. While that may not be as big a deal during the regular season, it is very big in the playoffs. Bay does not have big game experience (his recent comments about being a little awestruck at the traveling Sox crowds tells you he could be impacted if the Sox make the playoffs (yes, I said “IF”). So, I will want to wait and see how things shape out this year before declaring the winner of this trade. Manny, despite all his issues, is a special player with a lot of intangible qualities (and drawbacks).
October 7th, 2008 at 11:28 am
If anyone out there thinks that Manny could have come home vs. Bay in the 9th inning last night, you need to follow another sport!
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:02 am
Very nice LA Dodgers information. I hope to be in LA for a game this summer.