skyking162

Someone at a discussion board made the assertion that setup men are, in general, more valuable than closers because they pitch in tight games, while closers often “protect” three-run leads. I’m certainly not going to defend the misuse of bullpen aces, but closers most certainly do pitch in their fair share of tight situations.

The chart below is the 25 relievers with at least 30 innings pitched who have the highest LIs. LI stands for leverage index, a measure of the importance of a particular plate appearance. An LI of two means that the situation is twice as important as the average situation. The LI listed below is the average of LI across all of a pitcher’s batters faced. Thanks, Fangraphs.

Name		SV	LI
Fran Rodriguez	45	2.55
B.J. Ryan	22	2.34
Brian Wilson	32	2.33
C.J. Wilson	24	2.29
George Sherrill	31	2.26
Huston Street	18	2.15
Kevin Gregg	25	2.13
Trevor Hoffman	24	2.01
Kerry Wood	24	2.00
Brian Fuentes	21	1.98
Ryan Franklin	14	1.98
Heath Bell	0	1.91
Salomon Torres	22	1.91
Brad Lidge	28	1.88
Joe Nathan	31	1.88
Mariano Rivera	28	1.88
Matt Capps	17	1.88
Francis Cordero	22	1.83
Hideki Okajima	1	1.83
Joakim Soria	32	1.82
Brandon Lyon	24	1.80
Takashi Saito	17	1.79
Tyler Walker	0	1.76
Troy Percival	25	1.75
Jon Papelbon	31	1.75

Notice how only three relievers with fewer than 14 saves make the list? The lowest LI of any reliever with at least ten saves is 1.42 (Brandon Morrow). The lowest LI of any reliever with at least 20 saves is 1.62 (Jose Valverde).

Here are the relievers with at most five saves who have pitched in the most important situations:

Name		SV	LI
Heath Bell	0	1.91
Hideki Okajima	1	1.83
Tyler Walker	0	1.76
Dan Wheeler	4	1.66
Kyle McClellan	1	1.61
Scott Downs	5	1.58
Scot Shields	2	1.55
J.C. Romero	1	1.52
Jim Johnson	1	1.48
Guillermo Mota	1	1.48
Chad Bradford	0	1.48
Frank Francisco	0	1.47
Octavio Dotel	1	1.45
Luis Ayala	0	1.45
Chad Qualls	2	1.44
Joaquin Benoit	1	1.43
Alan Embree	0	1.43
Saul Rivera	0	1.43
Doug Brocail	2	1.42
Renyel Pinto	0	1.41
Scott Linebrink	1	1.38
Eddie Guardado	3	1.37
Brad Ziegler	1	1.37
Tony Pena	1	1.37
Damaso Marte	5	1.36

It’s definitely true that bullpen aces are misused, but closers still tend to have the most important role given the current bullpen usage patterns.

Popularity: 57% [?]

My darkhorse pick for AL MVP is Miguel Cabrera. Why? It’s a multi-fold argument, which, while making it less likely to happen, will make me look obscenely brilliant if it actually happens.

1. The Tigers, as a team, have more talent than their current record shows. They are bound to improve on their winning percentage during the last two months.
2. The White Sox pitching staff is performing over their heads and the Twins are about to crash and burn.
3. By 1 and 2, the Tigers have a reasonable chance of winning the AL Central and making the playoffs.
4. Miguel Cabrera has actually had a pretty good, but underrated, first two-thirds of the season. He’s already at a .298 AVG with 23 homeruns and 89 RBI. If he performs at typical Miggy levels the rest of the way, that could look more like .315/35/130 or better by the end of the year.
5. Justin Morneau won the 2006 MVP Award based on his triple crown stats and the fact that his breakout coincided with the Twins’ breakout on the way to winning the AL Central.
6. By 3, 4, and 5, Miguel Cabrera should win the AL MVP by running on Morneau’s 2006 platform. QED.

And yes, when Miggy wins the MVP, making me look prescient, I will still complain that Grady Sizemore got robbed.

Popularity: 24% [?]

They’ve now won 70 games on the year, as many as they won all of last year. Their next win will set a franchise record. It’s August 10th.

I might be a bandwagoner, but at least I’m an old-school bandwagoner.

Put it all together - Move the pieces around to improve the fielding. Enjoy better offensive production at DH, 3B, 2B, and SS. Watch the natural improvement of young hitters. Let the young pitching prospects make the impact that the hitters had in 2007. Finally, trust that the bullpen will only occasionally blow a game.

Oh, and I suggested trading Carl Crawford, too.

Popularity: 14% [?]

Using Justin’s stats, here’s yet another entry into the world of power rankings, simply adding up each team’s runs above average in three categories: offense, pitching, and fielding.

Team	Off	Pitch	Def	Total
CHN	59	26	20	106
CHA	27	77	-11	94
BOS	63	48	-26	84
TB	21	38	9	67
TOR	-36	76	25	65
PHI	26	-4	29	52
NYA	13	53	-18	48
LAN	-48	70	22	45
ATL	15	-5	29	40
STL	55	-52	34	37
LAA	-15	25	25	35
DET	70	-39	-5	27
NYN	35	-22	-1	12
OAK	-64	39	34	9
MIL	20	-26	12	6
CLE	-2	-3	3	-2
ARI	-36	48	-18	-6
TEX	82	-60	-33	-11
COL	-8	2	-6	-12
FLA	28	-39	-25	-36
MIN	-1	10	-49	-40
SEA	-43	16	-16	-43
SD	-42	-21	20	-44
BAL	33	-63	-15	-44
CIN	-28	-14	-13	-54
KC	-47	24	-45	-68
SF	-85	-2	8	-78
HOU	-22	-62	0	-84
PIT	8	-96	-30	-118
WAS	-80	-45	-3	-128

Chicago fans are having a great year. If the top four teams from each league made the playoffs, we’d have the Cubs vs. Braves and Dodgers vs. Phillies in the NL, with the White Sox vs. Blue Jays, and Red Sox vs. Rays in the AL.

Yes, that’s right, the Blue Jays. JP Ricciardi’s definitely underrated as a GM — hmm, that sounds like a future article.

Anything else that sticks out?

Popularity: 11% [?]

From 2005 through 2008 (last week some time) here are the VORP leaders for corner outfielders:

Player		VORP
Vlad Guerrero	211
Matt Holliday	208
Manny Ramirez	197
Jason Bay	161
Magglio Ordonez	153
Carlos Lee	147
Pat Burrell	143
Adam Dunn	143
Jermaine Dye	139
Bobby Abreu	138
Carl Crawford	119
J.D. Drew	110
Barry Bonds	108
Alfonso Soriano	106
Brian Giles	105
Moises Alou	105

If you figure Bay’s glove is worth a dozen runs per year more than Manny’s, then they’re a wash overall.

Money-wise, the Sox would have paid Manny $20MM next year. Instead, they’ll pay $8MM to Bay plus about $2MM to Bay this year, or $10MM total. (The would have paid Manny’s remaining $7MM 2008 salary either way.) So, in summary the trade from the Red Sox eyes is…

Gains

$10MM
Removing Manny’s clubhouse issues

Washes

Manny’s vs. Bay’s production
Draft picks from losing Manny vs. draft picks from losing Bay

Losses

Craig Hansen (going forward, certainly not this year)
Brandon Moss
Manny’s 2010 option

Here’s one good question I read somewhere: If the Dodgers are ok with Manny’s clubhouse antics, why not instead sign Barry Bonds, who’s better and wouldn’t have cost Andy LaRoche?

Popularity: 15% [?]