skyking162

Let’s say you want to look up which players have been the most productive so far this season. Your best option is probably VORP, but then you have to go somewhere else for fielding data. And VORP has, well, some geeky technical issues, too.

However, what if I told you there’s a stat out there that’s better than VORP (buh-bye Equivalent Runs) and includes the best publicly available fielding data? I’m not pulling your leg — Justin’s put it together for you. Oh, you want to know how everything’s computed? I don’t blame you — read away. Don’t have time to read all that right now? Here’s the quick version:

• RAR is offensive runs above replacement, which uses team-level linear weights based on BaseRuns. It’s park-adjusted and league-adjusted (the AL rulz!)
• Fielding is an average of BIS and STATS zone rating data from, respectively, Hardball Times and ESPN.
• PosAdj is an adjustment for position. You can either combine it with RAR to get a VORP-like number (offense compared to position), or combine it with Fielding to get a total defensive value number. It’s needed because Fielding compares players to positional average, and the average first baseman is obviously not as good of a fielder as the average center fielder.
• TotalValue is, well, the overall Super-Duper Better-Than-VORP stat.

Here are some interesting observations based on the data as of July 23…

Mark Ellis and Ryan Braun, two players I’ve discussed incessantly as under- and over-rated, respectively, have both been worth 34.5 runs above replacement this year.

Carlos Gomez and his .287 OBP have been more productive than Melky Cabrera (12 runs to 8) thanks to Gomez’s awesome fielding ability. Of course, the Yankees aren’t dumb enough to bat Cabrera leadoff.

Grady Sizemore has been the AL MVP and it’s not really close. The three mainstream media front-runners are third, eleventh, and eighteenth. Ian Kinsler can’t field (Brian Roberts has been just as valuable), Josh Hamilton’s not a true center fielder, and Milton Bradley’s a DH lacking a full slate of plate appearances. Everyone worth at least 25 runs above replacement is listed below:

Player		RAR	Field	Pos	Total
Sizemore 	45.8	6.2	2.3	54.2
Rodriguez 	40.9	1.5	0.5	42.9
Mauer 		27.6	4	5.2	36.8
Markakis 	36.9	3.4	-3.7	36.6
Kinsler 	41.7	-6.1	0.6	36.2
Roberts 	33.7	1.8	0.6	36
Beltre 		18.1	16	0.6	34.8
Rolen 		16.2	18.1	0.5	34.8
Longoria 	26.8	5.6	0.6	33
Youkilis 	31.5	5.5	-4.2	32.9
Hamilton 	33.2	-1.7	0.3	31.9
Ellis 		12.3	17.6	0.5	30.4
Dye 		32.9	0.4	-3.3	30
Drew 		32.4	0.3	-3	29.7
Pedroia 	26.4	1.9	0.6	28.9
Granderson 	23.8	2.5	1.8	28.1
Guillen 	23.4	4.7	-0.7	27.4
Bradley 	37.1	-4	-7.7	26.9
Upton 		23.1	0.1	2.3	25.6
Damon 		27.2	0.2	-2.1	25.2
Suzuki 		24	0.6	0.5	25.1

Even though he’s stuck at 154 plate appearances on the season, Rafael Furcal has been the fourth most productive shortstop in the major leagues. Ouch.

Freddy Sanchez, Mike Lamb, and Tony Pena Jr. are in a tight race for Least Valuable Player, all at about 15 runs below replacement level.

Bobby Abreu is at an impressively bad -26 runs defensively. Mike Jacobs and Brad Hawpe (-18 runs) look like Troy Tulowitzki in comparison. You think Joe Girardi might want to play Xavier Nady in RF?

Here are the best and worst fielders at each position:

CA: Jose Molina (+8), Saltalamaccia (-6)
1B: Teixeira (+11), Jacobs (-14)
2B: Ellis (+18), Easley (-12)
3B: Rolen (+18), Cantu (-13)
SS: Scutaro (+11), Crosby (-9)
LF: Crawford (+8), Manny (-11)
CF: Gomez (+10), McLouth (-13)
RF: Gutierrez (+13), Abreu (-22)

Derek Jeter is having a career year with the glove, coming in at +2 runs at shortstop.

Here are the most productive offensive players in the majors:

Berkman 54.3
Pujols 49.6
Jones 49.4
Sizemore 45.8
Ramirez 42.7
Kinsler 41.7
Rodriguez 40.9
Burrell 40.3
Holliday 39.5
Utley 38.4
Bay 37.2
Bradley 37.1
Markakis 36.9
Wright 36.5
Ludwick 34.7
Quentin 34
Morneau 33.8
Roberts 33.7
McLouth 33.7
Ramirez 33.4
Hamilton 33.2
Dye 32.9
Drew 32.4
Reyes 32.4
Dunn 32.3
Giambi 32.1

Why have the Tampa Bay Rays been so good this year? Not only do they have an awesome starting rotation, but they have the 9th (Longoria), 19th (Upton), 24th (Navarro), and 37th (Iwamura) most productive position players in the AL.

Here are some position player power rankings by team. (Tot is relative to replacement, Off and Def are relative to average.) Those Royals are horrible. There appears to be a pretty strong correlation between offensive and defensive value on each team — is that because teams who are good at identifying talent are good on both sides of the ball?

Team	Tot	Off	Def
STL 	212	54	39
CHN 	185	47	18
DET 	184	63	0
PHI 	174	26	28
BOS 	167	66	-21
MIL 	164	30	15
ATL 	160	11	26
TB 	155	24	9
NYN 	152	27	1
TEX 	152	62	-33
BAL 	135	28	-12
CHA 	135	31	-15
NYA 	135	28	-31
FLA 	121	22	-33
TOR 	115	-34	28
CLE 	110	-7	-2
SD 	110	-31	20
LAA 	109	-27	16
COL 	108	-11	-9
HOU 	105	-25	9
OAK 	105	-48	36
CIN 	103	-10	-6
MIN 	93	1	-34
LAN 	93	-41	15
PIT 	91	0	-27
ARI 	65	-41	-13
SF 	58	-59	-2
SEA 	51	-58	-14
WAS 	35	-69	-19
KC 	15	-60	-49

Remember how trading Adam Jones to the Orioles in exchange for Erik Bedard was going to lead the Mariners to the promised land? Well, that same Adam Jones has been the tenth most valuable center fielder in the majors this year.

I haven’t mentioned anything about pitchers, but Justin’s rated them, too.

Update: Justin just posted the numbers through games of August 4th.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Like I did with offensive value, here are the tiers of players based on my estimates of their defensive value. If you haven’t yet, check out the Top 10 and Top 25 lists.

I’m actually going to run two lists — first listing total defense, including position. Then I’ll list the players who score highest relative to their own position. Why? Albert Pujols is a terrific fielder relative to other first baseman, but he’s barely above average compared to everyone else. Both pieces of information are interesting.

There are many many more players who provide at least half a win of defensive value — I’m only listing players who have a case for being a Top 50 overall player based on their offense (i.e. no Omar Vizquels).

Total Defensive Value (wins above average):

2.0

Curtis Granderson, Mark Ellis, and Troy Tulowitzki.

1.5

Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, Carlos Beltran, Aaron Rowand, Rafael Furcal, Dioner Navarro, and Orlando Hudson.

1.0

Brian McCann, Jose Reyes, Rick Ankiel, BJ Upton, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Ichiro Suzuki, David DeJesus, Ryan Zimmerman, Jimmy Rollins, Brandon Phillips, and Shane Victorino.

.5

Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, David Wright, Josh Hamilton, Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria, Alfonso Soriano, Brian Giles, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon, and Kosuke Fukudome.

Fielding Relative to Position (wins above average)

2.0

Mark Ellis

1.5

Curtis Granderson, Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley, Orlando Cabrera, and Albert Pujols.

1.0

Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Aaron Rowand, Rafael Furcal, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Brandon Phillips, Alfonso Soriano, Brian Giles, Johnny Damon, Kosuke Fukudome, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, and Casey Kotchman.

.5

Joe Mauer, Dioner Navarro, Jose Reyes, Rick Ankiel, BJ Upton, Ichiro Suzuki, David DeJesus, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chipper Jones, David Wright, Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria, Troy Glaus, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, Adrian Gonzalez, and Derrek Lee.

Have I really missed the boat on anyone?

Popularity: 8% [?]

I’m going to post a Top 50 of Right Now list eventually, but I need to rate about 150 players total to make sure I don’t accidentally leave somebody’s name off the list. But I thought I’d post a couple lists involving the players I’ve already rated for the Top 10 and Top 25 (go read them if you haven’t already — and there’s some great discussion in the comments.)

First, how about the best hitters? The rating represents wins above average and includes a half-win bonus for AL hitters. In no particular order within each tier…

5.5

Pujols and ARod

5.0

David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera

4.5

Chipper Jones, although he might deserve to be lower thanks to his injury issues.

4.0

Manny Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Hanley Ramirez

3.5

Chase Utley, David Wright, Matt Holliday, Justin Morneau, Vlad Guerrero, Prince Fielder, and Jason Giambi

3.0

Grady Sizmore, Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira, Jason Bay, JD Drew, Milton Bradley, Nick Markakis, Ian Kinsler, Pat Burrell, Ryan Braun, Jermaine Dye, Magglio Ordonez, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Quentin.

2.5

Brian McCann, Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Guillen, Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Derek Jeter, Ryan Ludwick, and Carlos Pena.

There’s a decent chance I’ve missed a few names that should be in one of those groups (probably someone with little defensive value that I didn’t bother rating yet). But is there anybody you feel I’ve drastically misplaced?

Popularity: 13% [?]

Tristan Cockraft of ESPN.com has another one of those articles up about how Wins are a dumb pitching stat (they are) and how his new Quality Start off-shoot is the solution to that problem (it’s not). Quality Starts (at least 6 IP and at most 3 ER) are definitely better than Wins because they ignore run support, something outside a pitcher’s control. Cockcroft thinks his Winnable Starts (at least 7 IP and at most 3 ER) are better than Quality Starts because… well, he doesn’t provide much proof. But even if they are better, it’s a small improvement and completely misses the main shortcoming with Wins, Quality Starts, and Winnable Starts:

They are all black-and-white stats — a pitcher either earns one or doesn’t.

I think we all realize that there are many shades of gray between a perfect game and a typical Livan Hernandez start. So why pick one point in between and draw the line there? Why not instead recognize that there’s a sliding scale to performance?

I’ve advocated one option in the past, Game Score. And you cold also go the Support-Neutral Wins route. But both of those are all-encompassing — they’re too good. In fantasy, most leagues want a mix of different stats that value a pitcher in combination, not one stat that does it all.

So how about something a little simpler? For this simple new stat, let’s keep the general idea behind the Quality Start: more innings and fewer runs are both good things. We just need to find the balance between quantity and quality of innings.

A starter only has value if he’s better than a replacement pitcher, which means better than a 5.75 ERA (I’m going to round to 6 for the sake of simplicity.) He saves his team runs by allowing fewer runs than a 6.00 ERA pitcher. And the more innings he pitches, the more he helps, because the team can only be expected to provide a replacement-level pitcher for those additional innings. Here’s the formula for runs prevented:

(6.00 - ERA)*IP/9

We can get rid of the divide-by-nine thing because it just re-scales the first part. And we can replace the pitcher’s ERA with it’s definition:

(6 - ER/IP*9)*IP

By distributing the IP and factoring out a 3 (again, it just changes the scale), we get:

2*IP - 3*ER

That’s simple and intuitive: 3 points for pitching an inning and -2 points for giving up a run. It’s similar to ERA, but favors starters instead of relievers because starters get way more innings. A 180 IP starter with a 3.50 ERA is three times as valuable as 60 IP reliever with the same ERA. In fact, to match a 3.50 ERA reliever, a starter only needs a 5.15 ERA to be as valuable. I think that’s a good balance between just using ERA, which promotes using only relievers, or just using IP, which promotes picking up any hack off the waiver wire. All those league-average 4.50 starters will have value, which they should.

So do you think “two points per inning, minus three poing for each run” has any chance of catching on? Would a catchy acronym help it or hurt? Either way, it’s sure better than Winnable Starts (and Wins).

Popularity: 10% [?]

If you missed the original article about my ranking of the top ten players of right now and its gazillion comments, go read it. Today I’m going to continue down through the top 25 players (well, top 23, but more on that later) and do some minor editing of the top ten.

Once again, the three numbers listed are my pseudo-scientific estimates of each player’s wins above average on offense and defense, plus a position adjustment. I also gave AL players a half win bonus for league difficulty.

I’m leaving the top eight spots the same as they were in my original article. Based on reader feedback, I bumped Grady Sizemore down half a win in the field, but was able to leave him in the same spot — by my ratings he’s now tied with Joe Mauer instead of Chase Utley. Also, I more heavily mentally-regressed Josh Hamilton’s offensive rating — I realized i was giving him too much credit for his bat based on less than a full season’s worth of plate appearances. That kicks him out of the top ten. And since there was no specific number ten before, I forced myself to fill spots nine and ten.

Here you go, my 8th through 23rd best position players right now — these are the players you want on your team for the second half of the season:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Chipper Jones
4. Chase Utley
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Joe Mauer
7. David Wright
8. Curtis Granderson
9. Miguel Cabrera (4.5 off, -1.0 pos, -.5 field) — He has an outside shot of winning the AL MVP award this year. If he hits like he has in the past (he should) and if the Tigers make a run at the division (they should), then he’ll be running on the same platform that Justin Morneau did in 2006.
10. Carlos Beltran (2.0 off, .5 pos, +1.0 field) — Mets fans just don’t appreciate what they have in this guy. Dan O’Dowd does — he was rumored to have offered Matt Holliday to the Mets in return for Beltran. $18MM per season is a good deal in today’s game.
11. Hanley Ramirez (4.0 off, .5 pos, -1.0 field)– He’s an obvious top five player if he could really play shortstop. He’s supposedly improved his glove this season, but -1.0 in the field is still generous given his track record of -2.0.
12. Josh Hamilton (2.5 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — Yes, he was number nine on my original list, but I needed to bump his offensive rating down a step. He’s on pace in 2008 to be 3.0 wins above replacement according to B-Ref, but that’s including a generous park adjustment and ignores that he wasn’t this good last year. Let’s just say that my mental regression wasn’t strong enough originally.
13. David Ortiz (4.5 off, -1.5 pos, 0 field) — He’s one of the top five hitters in the game (once healthy, naturally), but can’t play the field. And if I gave any thought to baserunning, he’s bad at that, too.
14. Matt Holliday (3.5 off, -.5 pos, .5 field) — Yes, he deserves a penalty for playing in Coors. But no, you shouldn’t just quote his road stats. I almost rated him a step worse in the field because of his poor arm, but, well, I didn’t.
15. Brian McCann (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, 0 field) — He probably deserves a higher defensive rating, but I was already conservative with Mauer who’s definitely a notch ahead of McCann. You know, I’m probably overrating catchers a bit because they don’t play as much as players at other positions and would suffer in a replacement-level analysis. That’s why I’m listing McCann at the end of this tier.
16. Jose Reyes (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Suddenly underrated, Reyes is extremely valuable to the Mets. He hasn’t fielded well this year — Mets fans call it lack of focus — but he has a track record of being a plus with the glove. Reyes is clearly the second-best shortstop in the majors. Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins supporters can go back to resting on their MVP and Gold Glove laurels.
17. Lance Berkman (4.0 off, -1.0 pos, 0 field) — Here’s a good target for some quality over-reacting to 2008 numbers. He’s really good, but not 2008 good, and has no zero defensive value.
18. Mark Teixeira (3.0 off, -1.0 pos, 1.0 field) — Remember early last year when everyone was screaming about his power outage? He might not get back to hitting 40+ homeruns, but he’s still a stud (and walking more and striking out less). It’s the glove that separates him from most of the 1B pack.
19. Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has a lot of room to grow. One reason I really like making these lists is to see guys like Longoria (unproven young players with all-around games) fall next to guys like Berkman (gritty veterans with big bats and MVP campaigns). Do you think Ed Wade would trade Berkman for Longoria? No way, although he probably should, especially considering Longoria’s contract.
20. Brian Roberts (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — I originally had him much higher, but realized I was overreacting to two good seasons out of many. Where’s Ian Kinsler? Off taking extra infield practice.
21. BJ Upton (1.5 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — He’s getting a LOT of crap for his decreased power this year and looking lazy in center field. But his OBP is still in the .380 range and he’s still an above-average fielder even if he has more room to grow. More room to grow — that’s become a theme for Tampa players.
22. Mark Ellis (.5 off, 0 pos, 2.0 field) — You’re probably sick of me touting this guy by now, but he’s one of the best fielders in the game and has a slightly above-average bat to boot. An average-fielding second baseman would have to hit like Nick Markakis or Jermaine Dye to be equally valuable.
23. Rick Ankiel (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Remember when I predicted last off-season that Drew wouldn’t be more than a fourth outfielder? Yeah, I was wrong. He’s shown power, the ability to take a walk, and plus-range in center. Outfielder arm ratings aren’t available for 2008 yet, but I think he’ll score fine in that department, too. I encourage Ryan Braun apologists to compare their 2008 stat lines — Ankiel’s better even before taking defense into account.

In case you’re curious, listed below are the players that fall in the tier below numbers 16 to 23 listed above. I’ve only estimated ratings for about 70 players so far, so there’s a chance someone has slipped through the cracks. In no particular order…

Scott Rolen, Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, Vlad Guerrero, JD Drew, Nick Markakis, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Guillen, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, David DeJesus, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Milton Bradley.

As always, feel free to disagree with me in the comments. Please make sure to bring some data or logic to the party, though.

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