skyking162

Update: The Top 25

I’ve read a lot of articles answering questions like “which player has had the best season so far” or “which player would you rather have for the next five years” or “which player has the most trade value”. But rarely do people address who the best player is right now. That is, for the second half of the 2008 season, who would you most want to have on your team?

Naturally, I’m considering offensive production, position, and fielding ability, the last two of which often get overlooked. I’m not going to overreact to 2008 stats, because 2006 and 2007 are probably more important. And I’m only going to look at position players for now.

The ratings represent my unscientific (although I look at some stats) estimate of number of wins above average over a full season. Feel free to ignore them or take issue with them. Here’s an explanation of position adjustments. The fielding ratings are relative to each player’s position. I also included a half win bonus for all AL players to account for the difference in pitching quality between leagues (not listed, however).

That’s enough setup. Here are my ten best position players in the majors right now:

1. Albert Pujols (5.5 off, -1 pos, 1.5 field) — His bat is the best in the game and his amazing glove at first base makes up for the fact that he does only play first base. There are some injury concerns, but not enough to really worry.
2. Alex Rodriguez (5.0 off, 0 pos, 0 field) — He can match Pujols’ power, but not his on-base abilities. You would think ARod would be a plus defender at third from his Gold Glove shortstop days, but no — some metrics have even put him a bit below-average recently.
3. Chase Utley (3.5 off, 0 pos, 1.5 field) — There are ten players who can match Utley’s bat, but none of them can match his defensive value. His glove rated as even better than this in 2007, too. He wins the tie-breaker over Chipper thanks to his relative youth.
4. Chipper Jones (4.5 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Thanks to his insane on-base abilities, I see Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz (assuming he’s healthy) as the only two hitters other than Pujols and ARod who can match him at the plate. There isn’t much doubt that he’s now an asset in the field, too, which was not the case in his younger days.
5. Grady Sizemore (2.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — I wrote somewhere else that Grady Sizemore is Joe DiMaggio reincarnated. Sizemore isn’t quite that good at the plate, but I’m astounded that he doesn’t receive more recognition as the complete package of a ballplayer.
6. Joe Mauer (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, .5 field) — This one’s a real surprise to me. I had no idea Mauer was quite this valuable. I even bumped him down half a win in the field so he wouldn’t be any higher. Yes, he does deserve an offensive rating that high — he has the eighth highest on-base percentage since the beginning of 2006, right between Lance Berkman and Manny Ramirez. And he’s a catcher with an excellent reputation.
7. David Wright (3.5 off, 0 def, .5 field) — I think Wright is actually a little bit underrated offensively, because he doesn’t put up huge power numbers. They’re merely pretty good to go along with an excellent on-base percentage. 40+ homeruns are sexy. .400+ OBPs are not. Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez, Prince Fielder, and Utley are the other players I rated as 3.5 bats.
8. Curtis Granderson (1.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — Honestly, he could be even higher than this based on his amazing 2007, but I’m going to demand he do more before I completely buy the +2.5 bat or the +2.5 glove. My conservatism could also be treated as a proxy for Granderson’s complete inability to hit lefties, which really hurts in high-leverage situations.
9. Josh Hamilton (3.0 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — While a touch overhyped right now thanks to his gaudy RBI total and the Home Run Derby, you can’t ignore a center fielder with bat like his.
10. To Close To Call — I’ve got six players at the next level below Wright/Granderson/Hamilton: Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran (in no particular order). My gut says to go with Beltran or Cabrera, but I probably shouldn’t nitpick the difference between 10th and 15th on the list when they’re all a half step behind 9th.

If you’re curious, after the players listed in the tenth spot, my next group consists of Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Milton Bradley, Evan Longoria, Jose Reyes, Rick Ankiel, Brian Roberts, Mike Lowell, BJ Upton, and Mark Ellis.

What do you think? Who’s too high? Who did I miss that should have made the top ten?

Popularity: 31% [?]

Last fall, I made a post about jumping on the Rays bandwagon. That post serves as proof I’m not coming late to the party this year.

This post, while lacking similar substance to the Rays post, serves as my official notice that I’m now (also) jumping on the Pirates bandwagon. As the traditionally inept Pittsburgh organization begins to make intelligent decisions and becomes the pride of the National League, I want to be able to point to this post and say I’ve been along for the ride all along.

Anyone else want to join me?

Popularity: 11% [?]

A post like this about the Brewers’ second-half stats should be required writing for every team blog out there. At the All-Star break, all anybody talks about is second-half expectations. Instead of quoting first-half numbers, just take an hour and run a real projection. Crazy idea, huh?

Here’s a good article by Eric Seidman on why simply quoting prior stats is lazy, wrong, and stupid.

Update: It seem there are some more blogs who agree that this is a fantastic article to run. Let me know if you read any others and I’ll add them to the list…

Athletics
Brewers
Mets
Indians

Popularity: 7% [?]

Rich Harden traded? Check. Joe Blanton traded? Check. A’s general manager Billy Beane now has two more bullets to fire, and there are some obvious trade partners to deal with. The trades that make the most sense almost never get done, but these look like near no-brainers:

1. Mark Ellis to the Brewers — I don’t know the Brewers’ farm system well enough to predict what the A’s would get in return, but there isn’t a contender out there in need of a second base upgrade as much as Milwaukee. You see, Rickie Weeks just isn’t that good. He has the reputation as a high-ceiling guy, but his current Marcel projection is for a line of .247/.357/.409. That’s a touch above league-average. But Weeks is a really bad fielding second baseman, to the tune of at least one win below average. Yes, Brewer fans claim he’s improved this year, but three years worth of awful fielding data shouldn’t be ignored for half a year of fans’ eyes. Then you’ve got Ellis, who is also a slightly above average hitter — his .262/.335/.413 Marcel projection is actually a bit better than Weeks’ when you account for ballpark and league. And Ellis is the premiere defensive second baseman in the majors, worth two runs more than average. Putting it all together makes Ellis about 3.5 wins better over a full season, or 1.5 wins the rest of the way. That’s almost as much as the CC Sabathia upgrade.

   Would the Brewers give up on Rickie Weeks? Maybe not. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this off-season, meaning he’s under team control for three more years. Ellis is only signed through the rest of this season, so maybe Milwaukee can spin the PR in some way that doesn’t totally kill Weeks’ confidence. Fake injury?

   Would the A’s make this deal? Well, assuming the Brewers offer a decent package in return for Ellis, it would certainly be worth it. Beane’s trading away players still under control for more seasons, so trading a pending free agent wouldn’t be a big deal. But there’s one reason Oakland might want to hold on to Ellis — if they still hope to re-sign him this off-season. Ellis is a fantastic value, currently making $5MM and worth more like $18MM. Most teams don’t realize this fact and keeping him close to the vest probably makes it less likely anyone else figures it out.

2. Huston Street to the Rays — This trade would probably include Reid Brignac and/or some young arms. Brignac’s light isn’t as bright as it was a few years ago, but if you trust the guys over at DRaysBay, he still projects to be a league-average hitter with a very good glove. Think of Jason Bartlett but six years younger. Street is arbitration eligible for two more seasons, meaning Beane really doesn’t need to trade him, although all reports point to an imminent deal. My guess at future salaries would be $6MM in 2009 and $9MM in 2010.

   Why do the Rays need Street given their deep bullpen? Yes. For one, a relief ace is just as valuable as bullpen depth. But the Rays bullpen isn’t actually as good as its first half ERA. They have a number of relievers whose ERAs are hiding some question marks. Both Dan Wheeler and Troy Percival are flyball pitchers with flukily stingy homerun rates. When you look at their peripherals (like K/BB), you’d expect ERAs over 4.00 going forwad. JP Howell is probably the best guy in the pen right now (unless you put a ton of stock in Grant Balfour’s lights-out 20 IP), but even his ERA should be more like 3.50 going forward than the actual 2.75. Huston Street, on the other hand, has the skills to support a 3.00 ERA. That’s big — an upgrade of between 1 and 1.5 wins over the rest of the season. If the Rays decide they don’t want to pay Street’s salary in either of the next two years (and they might not considering the good chance of someone in their system turning into a bullpen ace down the road), he shouldn’t be difficult to trade, and they’d likely get almost as much back as they’d have to give up right now.

Popularity: 8% [?]

That was a question posed recently on a discussion board. With two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth, would you ever consider walking in the tying run?

The idea seems crazy, but what if Barry Bonds was the guy at the plate and the guy batting behind him wasn’t that good. Let’s say Bengie Molina to pick a not-so-crazy example. Might it be worth avoiding the possibility of Bonds driving in both the tying run and winning run and instead hope to win in extra innings? Let’s see…

Walking Bonds

Assuming the next batter to have a lowly .300 OBP, you’ve got a 30% chance of losing the game in the current inning. The 70% of the time that the game goes to extra innings, you’ve got a 50% chance of winning the game.

chance of winning = .7*.5 = 35%
chance of losing = .3 + .7*.5 = 65%

Challenging Bonds

In 2004, when Bonds wasn’t intentionally walked, he did this…
OUT: 50%
BB: 23%
1B: 12%
2B/3B: 6%
HR: 9%

If Bonds makes an out, you win 100% of the time. With a walk, it’s the same as the scenario above. With any hit, let’s assume two runs score and you lose — that happens 27% of the time.

chance of winning = .5*1 + .23*.35 + (.12+.06+.09)*0 = 58%
chance of losing = .5*0 + .23*.65 + (.12+.06+.09)*1 = 42%

Conclusion

Actually, I won’t force one particular conclusion down your throats. You can pick whether you want to win 35% of the time or 58% of the time.

In order to make the walk-Bonds chances come close to the dont-walk-Bonds chances for other hypothetical situations, you can change the model in three ways:

• Make the Bonds-like hitter way better (.400/.600/.1.000?)
• Make the hitter behind Bonds way worse (.150/.200/.300?)
• Assume that the chances of winning in extra innings favor your team to a greater extent (maybe your bullpen has Mo and Papelbon while your opponents have the 2007 Rays bullpen).

So yes, it is technically possible to create a scenario where walking in the tying run is the intelligent move. But one of those scenarios will never, ever exist in a real major league baseball game.

Mike Fast took this idea and ran with it. Check out his article over at The Hardball Times examining the history facing top hitters with the game on the line in the bottom of the ninth.

Popularity: 7% [?]