skyking162

While surfing around for some good articles on bullpen usage and win-probability, I came across this article at Sabernomics about the probability of each square containing the winning score combination for that dumb football betting game. It’s writting by Doug Drinen, one of the better math professors I had in college, and a huge football research guy. Moral of the story? Try to get the 0/7 or 7/0 square and avoid the 2/2 square at all costs — that square has only one once since the merger. And it just happens to be a Bills - Dolphins game.

Edit 1/31/2008: Doug just wrote a follow-up article on the super bowl squares strategy, taking into account scores at the end of each quarter. The 0/7 squares is now even more valuable, almost five times as profitable as the average square. Great stuff.

Popularity: 6% [?]

My hometown newspaper has some pretty lame sports writers, but this is ridiculous. Let me quote a little…

f winning the coin toss guaranteed victory, the Buffalo Bills would be undefeated and tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the best record in the NFL.

Buffalo is an uncanny 8-for-8 on winning coin flips this season to determine who gets the ball first. Call it payback.

Yes, that’s what the entire article is about - the Bills’ “uncanny” ability to guess right on the coin flip. What people will do to avoid writing about JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb.

But this paragraph is what makes me want to shoot someone (not really.)

According to assistant professor Darren A. Narayan, director of undergraduate research in the department of mathematics and statistics at Rochester Institute of Technology, the odds of Buffalo winning all eight of its coin flips is 1:256.

Are you fucking kidding me? You had to ask to ask a college professor how to answer that question? Your editors let you admit that you had to ask a professor how to answer that question? You think your readers are impressed with the mathematical “power” required to answer that question?

New rules: sports columnists need to be intelligent first, and good writers second. Sports broadcasters need to be competent first, and good speakers second. FoodTV hosts need to be quality chefs with interesting advice first and and discuss how wonderful their food smells second. Teachers need to understand how kids learn first and be experts in their field second. Oops, guilty.

Popularity: 3% [?]

ESPN.com - GOLF - Rules of Golf amended for correcting scorecard errors

While I respect golf for its strict rules and self-enforcement, being disqualified for not correctly keeping your own score has always seemed to me to be a bit much. As one of 111 (yes, 111) rules modifications, the USGA will now allow players to change their scorecards without penalty.

Popularity: 2% [?]

I’ve heard a number of “professional” sports analysts throw out a “meaningful” football “stat” over the past week, including Mike Greenberg and Tom Jackson. Their claim is that being able to run the ball is much more important than passing, because teams that have a 100 yard rushers tend to win games, while teams with 300 yard passers tend to lose games.

Now, I don’t discount the premise that running is more important than passing (although I think I remember an article at footballoutsiders.com that blew that myth to pieces), I just think their 100/300 stat is ridiculous. In fact, I’ve made fun of it a few times in my AP Stats class already under the heading “selective sampling”.

It’s the fourth quarter. Your team is up by 10 points. You can choose to pass the ball, risk an interception, and stop the clock with each incomplete pass. Or, you can run the ball, run down the clock, and limit the opportunities the other team has to make up the 10 points. Hmm, let’s run the ball. If, on the other hand, your team is losing, you’re best option is to pass the ball - it takes up less time and has a bigger payoff (at this point, the risk is worth it).

It’s not the 100 yard rushers that win the game, it’s winning the game that creates the 100 yard rushers. I bet that if you counted 50 yard rushers and 150 yard passers in the first half, the big passing performances would do just as well, if not better, than the 50 yard rushers.

Popularity: 3% [?]