skyking162

I’m unofficially closing this poll, although you can still vote if you haven’t already. According to readers of this blog, the best trade hauls this off-season (ignoring the package given up) were…

13 Cabrera & Willis
12 Miller & Maybin
10 Haren
7 Santana
6 Garza & Bartlett
5 Jones & Sherrill
4 Bedard
2 Young & Harris
2 Renteria
3 Swisher
1 Milledge
0 Church & Schneider
0 Tejada

One interesting observation is that among the trades where I included both sides in the poll, Matt Garza and Josh Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris is seen as the most lopsided trade. The Tigers-Marlins, Mets-Nationals, and Orioles-Mariners trades look relatively even.

Personally, I think the big names with big price tags are a bit overrated. Are the Mets much better with Santana than by spending $22 million per season on something else for the next seven years? Dontrelle Willis’ contract isn’t much below free agent value, and Miguel Cabrera is maybe a $6-8 million bargain. Andrew Miller should be at least as good a pitcher as Willis but for six more seasons and nowhere near the cost. Cameron Maybin just has to be league-average for two years to equal the value provided by Cabrera.

Dan Haren and Nick Swisher are both under longer contracts for significantly below-market prices, but I think I prefer Swisher because he has a fourth option year, isn’t a pitcher, and was underrated by Oakland Coliseum instead of being overrated a bit like Haren.

Is anybody surprised Tejada received no votes? I guess nobody who reads this blog is an Astros homer.

Popularity: 22% [?]

Patrick Sullivan pointed out that while the Twins gave up the best player in any off-season trade, they didn’t receive the best package in return. I suppose I agree, if I’m forced to buy into the assumption that contracts and salaries don’t matter.

But what if we do consider money? Which side of all the major trades would you rather have for your team?

I’m only including prospects in the poll if they’re expected to be major players in 2008. As a reminder, young players are under club control for six years before they hit free agency, with the last three going to arbitration. Basically, players earn the league minimum their first three seasons in the majors, 40% of the free agent rate their fourth year, 60% their fifth year, and 80% their last year under team control. Unless they sign other contracts, of course. (Contract information is from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Johan Santana
The Mets, on one level, were trading for one year of Santana at about $15 million plus possible draft picks if he became a free agent. Of course, Santana wouldn’t have accepted the trade if he wasn’t signed to his huge $22 million per season, seven year deal. You can decide what it’s worth to trade for the right to sign Santana to a free agent contract.

Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett
Garza’s entering his first official year on the major league roster, while Bartlett’s entering his second.

Delmon Young & Brandon Harris
Both players are entering their second year in the majors.

Nick Swisher
Swisher is signed through 2011 ($3.5M, $5.3M, $6.75M, $9M) with a team option for 2012 ($10.25M with $1M buyout).

Miguel Tejada
Tejada’s signed for $13M per season for two more years.

Dan Haren
Haren’s signed through 2010 ($4M, $5.5M, $6.75M). The last year is technically a team option, but automatically kicks in by reaching an innings pitched threshold.

Ryan Church and Brian Schneider
Church is entering his third year of service time while Schneider has two more years at $4.9M per season left.

Lastings Milledge
Milledge is entering his second year in the majors.

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis
Cabrera’s entering his fifth year in the majors and Willis will earn $7M, $10M, and $12M over the next three years.

Edgar Renteria
Renteria’s cost to the Tigers is $3M in 2008 with a team option for $11M in 2009. Boston is paying $8M of his 2008 salary and would cover the $3M buyout of the option year.

Andrew Miller and Camerin Maybin
Miller has a crazy contract that, among other things, required he be called up in September of 2006. You can basically treat him as a player entering his first year of service, however. Maybin is also entering his first season, but without all the contract shenanigans.

Erik Bedard
Bedard’s entering his fifth year of service.

Adam Jones and George Sherrill
Jones is entering his first year in the majors and Sherrill his third.

Understanding that it took different levels of sacrifice to acquire each package mentioned above — and ignoring that fact — which contract(s) would you most like to have? You may, as usual, select multiple answers.

Popularity: 28% [?]

Of all the teams that finished below .500 in 2007, which one do you think will increase its win total the most in 2008? As usual, we’re using approval voting, so you can vote for multiple teams, if you like. 2007 win totals are listed in parantheses.

Popularity: 26% [?]

Feel free to explain your choice in the comments.

Popularity: 29% [?]

The Tulo vs. Braun debate comes down to how you value their offensive and defensive contributions. For now, I want your opinion on defensive value, which has two components:

• Relative Ability: Was Braun good, average, bad, or super bad?
• Value Scale: Is “bad” -5 runs, -15 runs, or -50 runs?

Here’s what I want from you. In the comments, fill out the following ballot, first rating each listed player on their fielding talent relative to position. 1 is awful, like combining Mo Vaughn’s range with Chuck Knoblauch’s arm. 9 is awesome, like combining Juan Pierre’s speed with Vlad’s arm. Second, state how many runs above or below average, each rating point represents. For example, 7/10 might be +10 runs while 1/10 might be -50 runs. I don’t care if you have no idea. Just vote. (Copy and paste into comments.)

The ballot:

Rank 1 to 9, where 5 Is Average:
Troy Tulowitzky:
Ryan Braun:
Scott Rolen:
Albert Pujol:
Derek Jeter:
Mike Piazza:
Pudge Rodriguez:
Ryan Howard:
Ozzie Smith:
Manny Ramirez:

Runs relative to average for each rating where 0 is average:
1/9:
3/9:
5/9: 0
7/9:
9/9:

Popularity: 36% [?]