skyking162

My darkhorse pick for AL MVP is Miguel Cabrera. Why? It’s a multi-fold argument, which, while making it less likely to happen, will make me look obscenely brilliant if it actually happens.

1. The Tigers, as a team, have more talent than their current record shows. They are bound to improve on their winning percentage during the last two months.
2. The White Sox pitching staff is performing over their heads and the Twins are about to crash and burn.
3. By 1 and 2, the Tigers have a reasonable chance of winning the AL Central and making the playoffs.
4. Miguel Cabrera has actually had a pretty good, but underrated, first two-thirds of the season. He’s already at a .298 AVG with 23 homeruns and 89 RBI. If he performs at typical Miggy levels the rest of the way, that could look more like .315/35/130 or better by the end of the year.
5. Justin Morneau won the 2006 MVP Award based on his triple crown stats and the fact that his breakout coincided with the Twins’ breakout on the way to winning the AL Central.
6. By 3, 4, and 5, Miguel Cabrera should win the AL MVP by running on Morneau’s 2006 platform. QED.

And yes, when Miggy wins the MVP, making me look prescient, I will still complain that Grady Sizemore got robbed.

Popularity: 24% [?]

They’ve now won 70 games on the year, as many as they won all of last year. Their next win will set a franchise record. It’s August 10th.

I might be a bandwagoner, but at least I’m an old-school bandwagoner.

Put it all together - Move the pieces around to improve the fielding. Enjoy better offensive production at DH, 3B, 2B, and SS. Watch the natural improvement of young hitters. Let the young pitching prospects make the impact that the hitters had in 2007. Finally, trust that the bullpen will only occasionally blow a game.

Oh, and I suggested trading Carl Crawford, too.

Popularity: 14% [?]

Using Justin’s stats, here’s yet another entry into the world of power rankings, simply adding up each team’s runs above average in three categories: offense, pitching, and fielding.

Team	Off	Pitch	Def	Total
CHN	59	26	20	106
CHA	27	77	-11	94
BOS	63	48	-26	84
TB	21	38	9	67
TOR	-36	76	25	65
PHI	26	-4	29	52
NYA	13	53	-18	48
LAN	-48	70	22	45
ATL	15	-5	29	40
STL	55	-52	34	37
LAA	-15	25	25	35
DET	70	-39	-5	27
NYN	35	-22	-1	12
OAK	-64	39	34	9
MIL	20	-26	12	6
CLE	-2	-3	3	-2
ARI	-36	48	-18	-6
TEX	82	-60	-33	-11
COL	-8	2	-6	-12
FLA	28	-39	-25	-36
MIN	-1	10	-49	-40
SEA	-43	16	-16	-43
SD	-42	-21	20	-44
BAL	33	-63	-15	-44
CIN	-28	-14	-13	-54
KC	-47	24	-45	-68
SF	-85	-2	8	-78
HOU	-22	-62	0	-84
PIT	8	-96	-30	-118
WAS	-80	-45	-3	-128

Chicago fans are having a great year. If the top four teams from each league made the playoffs, we’d have the Cubs vs. Braves and Dodgers vs. Phillies in the NL, with the White Sox vs. Blue Jays, and Red Sox vs. Rays in the AL.

Yes, that’s right, the Blue Jays. JP Ricciardi’s definitely underrated as a GM — hmm, that sounds like a future article.

Anything else that sticks out?

Popularity: 11% [?]

I have an article over at Dugout Central on the most underrated players in MLB. I didn’t actually know I was writing an article — I just wrote a response to an email they sent out asking for opinions from all the contributors to that site. It’s nothing I haven’t written about here, but still moderately interesting. And yes, Mark Ellis, Carlos Beltran, and Grady Sizemore were all mentioned.

Popularity: 11% [?]

From 2005 through 2008 (last week some time) here are the VORP leaders for corner outfielders:

Player		VORP
Vlad Guerrero	211
Matt Holliday	208
Manny Ramirez	197
Jason Bay	161
Magglio Ordonez	153
Carlos Lee	147
Pat Burrell	143
Adam Dunn	143
Jermaine Dye	139
Bobby Abreu	138
Carl Crawford	119
J.D. Drew	110
Barry Bonds	108
Alfonso Soriano	106
Brian Giles	105
Moises Alou	105

If you figure Bay’s glove is worth a dozen runs per year more than Manny’s, then they’re a wash overall.

Money-wise, the Sox would have paid Manny $20MM next year. Instead, they’ll pay $8MM to Bay plus about $2MM to Bay this year, or $10MM total. (The would have paid Manny’s remaining $7MM 2008 salary either way.) So, in summary the trade from the Red Sox eyes is…

Gains

$10MM
Removing Manny’s clubhouse issues

Washes

Manny’s vs. Bay’s production
Draft picks from losing Manny vs. draft picks from losing Bay

Losses

Craig Hansen (going forward, certainly not this year)
Brandon Moss
Manny’s 2010 option

Here’s one good question I read somewhere: If the Dodgers are ok with Manny’s clubhouse antics, why not instead sign Barry Bonds, who’s better and wouldn’t have cost Andy LaRoche?

Popularity: 15% [?]