skyking162

The Rays just signed Evan Longoria to a contract extension after his sixth game in the majors. Sounds a little crazy, right? It’s certainly never happened before. But I love it. Nothing’s for certain, obviously, but the Rays are set to save a lot of money over the next six years more likely than not.

The base deal is for $17MM over six years. Had Longoria gone year to year with Tampa Bay, his contract would have been dictated to him for the first three. Then he would have battled for three years in arbitration. Thanks to Tom Tango, we know approximately what arbitration payouts are: 40% of free agent value the first year, 60% the second, and 80% the third.

Therefore, Longoria would likely have been paid the league minimum the first three seasons, with perhaps a small bonus to build good will. That’s $500,000 per season or $1.5MM total, leaving $16MM over the final three years of arbitration.

Let’s translate what $16MM worth of arbitration money means on the free agent scale. The average arbitration payout is 60% of what a player would earn as a free agent, so the Rays are paying Longoria like a $27MM player ($16MM/.6) — that’s $9MM per year. Teams are currently paying $4.5MM per free agent win, meaning Longoria’s being paid as though he’ll be a two-win player during his arbitration years.

How good is two wins? It’s league-average. Longoria’s fielding should be worth half a win, meaning he can be a below-average hitter (.320 OBP and .400 SLG?) and still be worth his contract.

Sure, there’s always a chance that he crashes and burns, but is there anyone out there who doesn’t think Longoria will put those numbers to shame? The Rays’ new management is among the best in the game, and this is just one more big example why. (I haven’t even mentioned the three option years that the team will hold. Those can only be a positive.)

That being said, why would Longoria sign this deal if he could probably earn more money going year to year? Financial security. The first $17.5MM he earns in his life will be more important to him and his family than the next $50MM. Putting that money at risk (to injuries, to a crazy manager) just isn’t worth it.

Update: Here’s a look at the three option years of Longoria’s contract, which make it an even bigger steal for the Rays. And here are some answers to common questions about the whole situation.

Popularity: 100% [?]

The discussion about batting the pitcher eighth has been spreading, thanks to Tony Larussa, Ned Yost, and the work done by the authors of The Book. I’m not going to try to convince you one way or the other (except to point out right here that The Book shows it can be around a two-run benefit over a full season), but I wanted to make some points related to the discussion.

First of all, the argument for batting the pitcher eighth is that you get a second leadoff hitter every time through the order except for the first. That means more runners on base for the 1-2-3 hitters to knock in. The argument against batting the pitcher eighth is two-fold: the pitcher’s spot will get about 20 additional plate appearances during the season, and the 5-6-7 hitters have a weaker hitter behind them.

Now, my points:

• Since the cost or benefit of this strategy is so small, you can’t argue its merits on intuition. Just because you think the pluses outweigh the negatives doesn’t mean anything. There are many complex variables to consider, and therefore you have to run a rigorous study to conclude anything with confidence. The authors of The Book did that. I’d like to see more people tackle it.
• Another lineup-optimization tactic is to put your best hitter second, meaning the ninth spot is closer to him than in traditional lineups. If, on the other hand, you’re batting Paul LoDuca second, putting the pitcher eighth probably doesn’t help as much.
• Batting a position player ninth, like Jason Kendall, is not a punishment for him. It’s actually a reward — instead of wasting all his times on base with the pitcher following him, he gets to score more runs by having Rickie Weeks bat next.
• Because the effect is so small, the data from one team from one season is meaningless. But that doesn’t mean USAToday won’t present it (see table at bottom). My biggest pet peeve, however, is that they listed OBP and SLG with both lineup configurations. Batting the pitcher 8th won’t increase your team’s batting line — if anything it will decrease it thanks to the pitcher spot coming to the plate more often. The benefit comes from having the positive events interact more often. Run scoring isn’t linear — clustering good things results in exponentially more runs.
• From The Book, the closer in hitting talent your pitcher is to your worst hitter, the less advantage you get from hitting the pitcher eighth. If the difference is as small as the difference between typical eighth and ninth place hitters in the American League, then you want to put your pitcher ninth (unless, of course, your pitcher is a better hitter than your worst position player.)

Popularity: 62% [?]

I originally wrote this article for Rotojunkie a few months ago. Now that I’ve (mostly) figured out the cool table formatting, I’m posting it here.

There’s nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than having a tenth round draft pick turn into an ace. But there’s also nothing more frustrating than killing your chances of tasting the Yahoo by watching your early picks crash and burn. Therefore, it’s important to know which starters are overrated so you can let the other guys waste the big bucks.

It’s folly to base 2008 expectations solely on 2007 numbers, but many people do. So let’s take a look at which starters will be most overrated based on their 2007 ERA.

A pitcher’s main goal is to prevent runs, which is why ERA is such a great stat. Sure, there are other fantasy categories, but ERA, WHIP, and Wins all depend to a certain extent on being a good pitcher. Unfortunately, ERA isn’t a perfect reflection of pitcher skill — it’s influenced by many things outside a pitcher’s control. Enter xFIP, which does a pretty good job of measuring a pitcher’s skill on the ERA scale without falling prey to outside influences. I could simply throw out a list of pitchers who posted xFIPs much high than their actual ERAs and call them overrated, but sometimes it’s better to understand WHY these pitchers are primed to move down a notch or two in 2008. So I present four ways to find overrated pitchers:

BABIP

This one’s been beaten to death over the past few years. Once pitchers allow the batter to put the ball in play, they don’t show much of a difference in skill of allowing those balls to turn into outs. Fielders, ballpark, and luck play much bigger roles. Luck should even out in the long run, but fielding and ballpark can often remain constant from year to year. Pitchers who post an unusually low BABIP are likely candidates to allow more baserunners, and therefore more runs the following year. League-average BABIP is .300, and anything outside the .290 to .310 range needs an explanation.

HR/FB

The cliche here is that pitchers can control what percentage of batted balls are flyballs, but they don’t control what percentage of flyballs turn into homeruns. That’s not exactly true, but the range in talent of HR/FB ratio is much narrower than what you’ll see in any given season. League-average rate is about 11%, and ballparks can affect that percentage big time. Also, groundball pitchers tend to have slightly higher HR/FB rates than flyball pitchers. Anything outside the 10-12% range catches my eye if there aren’t extenuating circumstances.

URA

ERA is a strange stat because it doesn’t count unearned runs. Sure, it’s nice that errors made by fielders are removed from the pitcher’s responsibility, but often times too much is removed. For example, if a two-out error puts a runner on base and the pitcher follows up by allowing a homerun, neither run is earned. But if the first batter made an out and the second hitter led off the next inning with a homerun, it would count as earned. Unearned Run Average is simply the number of unearned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings. League-average is about .3. Anything over that should be considered a fluke. If a pitcher’s URA comes down and he allows a similar number of runs to score, that means his ERA will go up.

LOB%

Good pitchers tend to strand more runners than bad pitchers, because they don’t allow as many baserunners in the first place. However, some aspects of LOB% are outside a pitcher’s control. For example, there’s no skill to spreading out baserunners over multiple innings instead of bunching them together. That being said, the first three result in more baserunners and/or more baserunners scoring. So I like to look at LOB% last, after I’ve accounted for the other three. League-average LOB% is about 71% — once that goes above 74% I start to be suspicious.

Ok, let’s roll. I took all the starters who threw at least 100 IP in 2007 and calculated the difference between their actual ERA and their expected ERA (xFIP). Listed below are the pitchers whose ERAs least matched their skills. I’ve added commentary to highlight why each pitcher might have been lucky in 2007 and what you can expect in 2008. The simple solution is to let other teams have at these guys and save your money for better bets. You can peruse the full list of xFIPs at The Hardball Times.

Top Sixteen Most Overrated Starters

Steve Trachsel BAL

I doubt Trachsel’s on your radar, but hopefully that 6.21 xFIP motivates you to erase his name completely from your cheat sheets. Seriously, his 2.8 K/9 rate is worse than Carlos Silva’s. On the plus side, winning “2007’s Most Flukiest Starter Award” comes with a cash bonus.

Chris Young SDP

Young’s a great example of a pitcher who’s nowhere near as good as his ERA shows but will benefit from many of the same advantages again in 2008. PETCO will continue to keep his insane number of flyballs in the park and the Padres’ defense should keep the BABIP on the low side. But a 5% HR/FB rate and a .240 BABIP? No way. If you split the difference between Young’s 2007 ERA and his xFIP, you get 3.91. That seems like a reasonable ERA projection for 2008.

Noah Lowry SFG

Maybe Brian Sabean does know something here — he’s been shopping Lowry around all winter. You can’t look at any one stat to prove his overratedness, but if you put all four together, you get a pitcher to avoid next year. Plus, that 1:1 K/BB ratio is just frightening.

Jesse Litsch TOR

Blue Jay fans enjoyed Litsch’s major league debut in 2007. But look at how many unearned runs he gave up. His ERA should jump half a run in 2008 based on that figure alone. Toronto had the best fielding team last season, so I don’t expect his BABIP to rise much in 2008. An ERA in the mid to high 4.00s sounds reasonable.

Brad Penny LAD

Penny was stingy with the homeruns in 2007, allowing only nine. Dodger Stadium actually encourages homeruns slightly, so that 5% HR/FB ratio is bound to rise. However, because he doesn’t allow very many flyballs, regression won’t completely kill him. Expect an ERA around 4.00 instead of 3.00.

Brian Bannister KCR

Here’s a sell-high candidate, if I ever saw one — both in your keeper league and for the Royals. With the demand for quality young pitching as high as it is, wouldn’t it be nice to trade a pitcher whose skills project to an ERA over 5.00 to a team who will pay like it will be under 4.00? Sure, the Kansas City defense was pretty good in 2007, but without Ryan Shealy, Joey Gathright, and Emil Brown in the plan for 2008, there’s no way Bannister maintains anything near that .261 BABIP. Expect some more homeruns, too.

Oliver Perez NYN

How’s this for a crazy stat — Perez yielded over one unearned run per game last year. Maybe he completely loses focus when his fielders make an error? Or, more likely, he was just really lucky. Either way, there’s no way Perez will have so many of his runs disqualified by errors, or a BABIP so low again. I’m as big of an Ollie fan as there is, but I doubt I’ll own him in any leagues next year.

Matt Chico WAS

Honestly, none of the four flukiness factors scream “I was a lucky SOB in 2007″, but stranding 74% of your baserunners is tough to do when striking out only 4.9 hitters per nine innings. Then add a few more tenths on to his ERA because of the unearned runs. Chico’s actual ERA was the highest of anybody on the list so far, so it’s not like he was a target for many of you anyway. Stick with that gut feeling.

John Lackey LAA

Lackey was a darkhorse Cy Young candidate last year thanks to his league-leading 3.01 ERA. Nobody mentioned all the unearned runs he gave up. In 2008, expect a few more homers, a few less Cy Young votes, and an ERA in the high 3.00’s. Of course, you know not to pay top dollar for a player the year after a breakout season, right?

Orlando Hernandez NYN

El Duque and Oliver Perez are quite the wacky duo. Hernandez posted a ridiculously low .222 BABIP in 147 innings, yet was unlucky in the homerun department. A return to normalcy (can he do anything normal?) might push him out of the rotation come mid-season. And that’s if he can stay healthy.

Matt Cain SFG

Cain earned the reputation as a hard luck loser in 2007, posting a 7-16 record with a 3.65 ERA. I’m sure this guy’s on many sleeper lists, but my advice is to take an extra No-Doze. Cain’s a flyball pitcher who had a very low percentage of flyballs turn into homeruns. As that changes, so will his ERA. Of course, Cain’s young enough that his raw skills may continue to improve, preventing his 2008 from being a complete disappointment. I’m thinking of an ERA around 4.00.

Kevin Correia SFG

Interesting, another Giant with a low HR/FB ratio. Some of that can be chalked up to AT&T’s deep fences. But the stadium can’t explain the fact that Correia stranded 79% of his baserunners. On the plus side, he didn’t allow a single unearned run last year. Oh, and there’s that whole “young enough to significantly improve” advantage.

Brandon McCarthy TEX

Many people might look at McCarthy and see an ex-prospect who finally fulfilled his potential. But I see a Ranger pitcher who somehow was stingy with the homerun ball and allowed an excessive number of unearned runs. That K/BB ratio is nothing to write home about, either. Please, back away from the McCarthy.

Tom Gorzelanny PIT

This one hurts, actually. How can you not love this guy? Allowing a few more homeruns will bring that LOB% back down and his ERA up into the mid-4.00s. The good news is that he’s probably easy to trade if you’ve got him in a keeper league, as everyone loves him. He and Ian Snell aren’t a bad start towards building a Pirates staff that’s above league-average.

Jarrod Washburn SEA

I’m no Washburn fan, but I’m actually not too worried about his lowish HR/FB rate. Safeco is murder on right-handed power hitters, which plays right into Washburn’s hands. And unless the Mariners do something crazy like trade Adam Jones, the outfield defense should be quite good next year, critical for a flyball pitcher like Washburn.

Mark Buehrle CHA

Buehrle’s ERA has been up and down his whole career, without his core skills changing all that much. Sure seems like his true talent lies somewhere in the low- to mid-4.00’s than the mid 3.00’s, and I’d rather play roulette with a player coming off an unlucky season than a lucky one.

You can check out the , but here are the names from the next twenty on the list of flukiest starters I’d be most cautious about in 2008. Not because they have the biggest chance to bomb, but because the hype is especially strong: Kelvim Escobar, Adam Wainright, Chad Billingsley, Kyle Kendrick, John Garland, Justin Verlander, Jeremy Guthrie, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, Curt Schilling, Zach Greinke, and John Maine.

Popularity: 34% [?]

Edwin Jackson has a 0.64 ERA. Jeff Suppan has a 2.03 ERA. And Tim Redding has a 0.82 ERA. Those aren’t the guys you want to bet the house on in 2008, however.

Why not? Only 19% of Jackson’s balls-in-play have fallen for hits so far and his K/BB ratio is 1.67. Suppan’s striking out only two batters per nine innings. And Redding’s striking out and walking the same numbers of batters — 4 per game.

Not that you should put much stock in two starts, but let’s at least credit the pitchers who have pitched well and not lucked into a nice ERA. Thanks to Fangraphs, here are the top fifteen pitchers in terms of FIP, which is an ERA-like number created from K’s, BB’s, and HR’s. League-average rates are assumed for things like BABIP and LOB%. Luck is the difference between ERA and FIP. Minimum 10 IP.

Name		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	BABIP	ERA	FIP 	luck
Ben Sheets	8.8	1.2	0.0	7.5	.199	0.00	1.63	-1.63
Derek Lowe	7.5	0.8	0.0	10.0	.370	2.25	1.78	0.47
Jonathan Sanche	16.2	3.6	0.9	4.5	.469	6.30	2.10	4.20
Dana Eveland	8.8	2.7	0.0	3.3	.268	0.68	2.15	-1.47
Jered Weaver	7.4	1.4	0.0	5.5	.293	2.03	2.22	-0.19
Shaun Marcum	10.3	1.3	0.6	8.0	.254	2.57	2.27	0.30
Tim Hudson	4.9	0.0	0.0	7.0	.233	3.46	2.35	1.11
Nick Blackburn	8.3	2.3	0.0	3.7	.344	2.25	2.37	-0.12
Javier Vazquez	10.5	3.8	0.0	2.8	.377	5.25	2.37	2.88
Johnny Cueto	12.2	0.0	1.4	18.0	.169	2.03	2.45	-0.42
Brian Bannister	7.5	3.0	0.0	2.5	.227	1.50	2.53	-1.03
Brad Thompson	9.3	3.4	0.0	2.8	.366	2.53	2.54	-0.01
Ryan Dempster	6.9	2.8	0.0	2.5	.130	0.69	2.58	-1.89
Carlos Zambrano	7.9	0.7	0.7	12.0	.253	1.32	2.61	-1.29
Ian Snell	9.8	1.5	0.8	6.5	.324	3.75	2.62	1.13

A few surprises there. Jonathan Sanchez is striking out 16 batters per nine innings. His Achilles heal in the past has been allowing homeruns, so keep an eye on those going forward. Dana Eveland and Nick Blackburn have made nice major league debuts. Brian Bannister’s BABIP is still low, but he’s upped his K-rate to 7 per nine. And maybe the Cubs decision of switching Kerry Wood’s and Ryan Dempster’s roles has proved to be genius so far.

Here are the top fiften players with the best luck — their ERAs are higher than their skills so far indicate:

Name		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	BABIP	ERA	FIP 	luck
Erik Bedard	8.2	6.6	2.5	1.3	.192	3.27	7.38	-4.11
Tim Redding	4.1	4.1	0.8	1.0	.212	0.82	4.84	-4.02
Zack Greinke	3.0	2.4	0.6	1.3	.228	0.60	4.20	-3.60
Jeff Suppan	2.0	2.7	1.4	0.8	.224	2.03	5.60	-3.57
Fausto Carmona	4.9	6.2	0.0	0.8	.212	0.69	4.20	-3.51
Kyle Lohse	3.8	3.0	0.0	1.3	.195	0.00	3.37	-3.37
Todd Wellemeyer	9.8	3.0	2.3	3.3	.224	2.25	5.28	-3.03
Oliver Perez	7.7	3.1	0.0	2.5	.259	0.00	3.03	-3.03
Felix Hernandez	5.4	3.0	0.0	1.8	.231	0.00	3.00	-3.00
Justin Germano	4.2	2.1	0.0	2.0	.186	0.00	2.97	-2.97
Joe Saunders	5.1	1.7	0.6	3.0	.162	0.56	3.45	-2.89
Rich Harden	12.3	5.7	0.8	2.1	.272	0.82	3.56	-2.74
Tom Glavine	4.8	4.0	0.0	1.2	.278	0.79	3.46	-2.67
Greg Maddux	5.5	1.4	2.1	4.0	.173	2.77	5.43	-2.66
Jeremy Bonderma	2.4	4.8	1.6	0.5	.275	3.97	6.55	-2.58

Surely Erik Bedard’s homerun rate will come down, but his walks are ghastly. Fausto Carmona, Rich Harden, and Jeremy Bonderman have also caught the free pass bug. Zach Greinke needs to start striking hitters out if his comeback story is to continue. Some of these pitchers, like Felix Hernandez, Oliver Perez, Justin Germano (who?), Joe Saunders, and Tom Glavine deserve low ERAs, just not that low.

Finally, how about the bottom 15 in terms of luck — pitchers who are throwing well, but giving up more runs that they deserve.

Name		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	BABIP	ERA	FIP 	luck
Jason Bergmann	8.7	1.7	2.6	5.0	.404	10.45	5.62	4.83
Jonathan Sanche	16.2	3.6	0.9	4.5	.469	6.30	2.10	4.20
Nate Robertson	9.6	3.5	0.9	2.8	.436	7.84	3.78	4.06
David Bush	6.8	6.8	0.8	1.0	.333	8.44	5.45	2.99
Javier Vazquez	10.5	3.8	0.0	2.8	.377	5.25	2.37	2.88
A.J. Burnett	3.4	2.5	0.8	1.3	.349	6.75	4.51	2.24
Roy Oswalt	4.5	1.5	0.8	3.0	.418	6.00	3.78	2.22
Matt Chico	7.2	2.4	0.8	3.0	.362	5.56	3.55	2.01
John Bale	3.7	1.5	0.7	2.5	.363	5.84	3.93	1.91
Jair Jurrjens	5.8	2.2	0.0	2.7	.374	4.38	2.63	1.75
Gil Meche	7.7	4.6	1.5	1.7	.344	6.94	5.26	1.68
Andy Sonnanstin	5.3	1.5	1.5	3.5	.291	6.00	4.70	1.30
Boof Bonser	5.5	0.0	0.7	8.0	.344	4.15	2.97	1.18
Dustin Moseley	7.4	2.5	2.5	3.0	.353	7.36	6.20	1.16
Ian Snell	9.8	1.5	0.8	6.5	.324	3.75	2.62	1.13

Not all of these guys have pitched well, mind you — Bergmann, Bush, Meche, Moseley — but all should see their ERAs drop if they continue pitching like they have. I’m happy to see Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett on that list, as they’re the anchors of my AL fantasy league. And Boof’s always been a favorite.

So, remember, don’t base any serious decisions on two starts. But if you do, at least look at the right numbers (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, etc) and not something even more variable like ERA.

Popularity: 17% [?]

I realize nobody actually believes the Tigers will be a bad team this year based on their start or that we have significantly more information about them now than 10 days. But to hammer it home in a completely non-objective way, check out these losing streaks from team who competed for playoff spots last year (courtesy of B-Ref’s PI):

TM   G
SEA  9
COL  8
SEA  7
LAD  7
NYY  7
LAD  6
SEA  6 (2)
MIL  6
LAA  6

Yes, Seattle had four losing streaks of at least six games. Ouch.

And how about crappy teams that had long win steaks last year…

TM   G
SFG  8
TEX  6
SFG  6
CIN  6
WAS  6
BAL  6 (2)

Again, it’s early. But given that the Tigers started 0-7, it’s of course correct to assume their win total will be lower than original predictions. I put them at 89 wins, or a .549 winning percentage. Over seven games, that translates to four wins (3.85, actually), so I would now expect them to win four fewer games. 85 wins probably won’t get it done in the AL. So yes, this losing streak will hurt the Tigers, but it’s not very predictive of future games.

Popularity: 16% [?]