Let’s say you want to look up which players have been the most productive so far this season. Your best option is probably VORP, but then you have to go somewhere else for fielding data. And VORP has, well, some geeky technical issues, too.
However, what if I told you there’s a stat out there that’s better than VORP (buh-bye Equivalent Runs) and includes the best publicly available fielding data? I’m not pulling your leg — Justin’s put it together for you. Oh, you want to know how everything’s computed? I don’t blame you — read away. Don’t have time to read all that right now? Here’s the quick version:
- RAR is offensive runs above replacement, which uses team-level linear weights based on BaseRuns. It’s park-adjusted and league-adjusted (the AL rulz!)
- Fielding is an average of BIS and STATS zone rating data from, respectively, Hardball Times and ESPN.
- PosAdj is an adjustment for position. You can either combine it with RAR to get a VORP-like number (offense compared to position), or combine it with Fielding to get a total defensive value number. It’s needed because Fielding compares players to positional average, and the average first baseman is obviously not as good of a fielder as the average center fielder.
- TotalValue is, well, the overall Super-Duper Better-Than-VORP stat.
Here are some interesting observations based on the data as of July 23…
Mark Ellis and Ryan Braun, two players I’ve discussed incessantly as under- and over-rated, respectively, have both been worth 34.5 runs above replacement this year.
Carlos Gomez and his .287 OBP have been more productive than Melky Cabrera (12 runs to 8) thanks to Gomez’s awesome fielding ability. Of course, the Yankees aren’t dumb enough to bat Cabrera leadoff.
Grady Sizemore has been the AL MVP and it’s not really close. The three mainstream media front-runners are third, eleventh, and eighteenth. Ian Kinsler can’t field (Brian Roberts has been just as valuable), Josh Hamilton’s not a true center fielder, and Milton Bradley’s a DH lacking a full slate of plate appearances. Everyone worth at least 25 runs above replacement is listed below:
Player RAR Field Pos Total Sizemore 45.8 6.2 2.3 54.2 Rodriguez 40.9 1.5 0.5 42.9 Mauer 27.6 4 5.2 36.8 Markakis 36.9 3.4 -3.7 36.6 Kinsler 41.7 -6.1 0.6 36.2 Roberts 33.7 1.8 0.6 36 Beltre 18.1 16 0.6 34.8 Rolen 16.2 18.1 0.5 34.8 Longoria 26.8 5.6 0.6 33 Youkilis 31.5 5.5 -4.2 32.9 Hamilton 33.2 -1.7 0.3 31.9 Ellis 12.3 17.6 0.5 30.4 Dye 32.9 0.4 -3.3 30 Drew 32.4 0.3 -3 29.7 Pedroia 26.4 1.9 0.6 28.9 Granderson 23.8 2.5 1.8 28.1 Guillen 23.4 4.7 -0.7 27.4 Bradley 37.1 -4 -7.7 26.9 Upton 23.1 0.1 2.3 25.6 Damon 27.2 0.2 -2.1 25.2 Suzuki 24 0.6 0.5 25.1
Even though he’s stuck at 154 plate appearances on the season, Rafael Furcal has been the fourth most productive shortstop in the major leagues. Ouch.
Freddy Sanchez, Mike Lamb, and Tony Pena Jr. are in a tight race for Least Valuable Player, all at about 15 runs below replacement level.
Bobby Abreu is at an impressively bad -26 runs defensively. Mike Jacobs and Brad Hawpe (-18 runs) look like Troy Tulowitzki in comparison. You think Joe Girardi might want to play Xavier Nady in RF?
Here are the best and worst fielders at each position:
CA: Jose Molina (+8), Saltalamaccia (-6)
1B: Teixeira (+11), Jacobs (-14)
2B: Ellis (+18), Easley (-12)
3B: Rolen (+18), Cantu (-13)
SS: Scutaro (+11), Crosby (-9)
LF: Crawford (+8), Manny (-11)
CF: Gomez (+10), McLouth (-13)
RF: Gutierrez (+13), Abreu (-22)
Derek Jeter is having a career year with the glove, coming in at +2 runs at shortstop.
Here are the most productive offensive players in the majors:
Berkman 54.3
Pujols 49.6
Jones 49.4
Sizemore 45.8
Ramirez 42.7
Kinsler 41.7
Rodriguez 40.9
Burrell 40.3
Holliday 39.5
Utley 38.4
Bay 37.2
Bradley 37.1
Markakis 36.9
Wright 36.5
Ludwick 34.7
Quentin 34
Morneau 33.8
Roberts 33.7
McLouth 33.7
Ramirez 33.4
Hamilton 33.2
Dye 32.9
Drew 32.4
Reyes 32.4
Dunn 32.3
Giambi 32.1
Why have the Tampa Bay Rays been so good this year? Not only do they have an awesome starting rotation, but they have the 9th (Longoria), 19th (Upton), 24th (Navarro), and 37th (Iwamura) most productive position players in the AL.
Here are some position player power rankings by team. (Tot is relative to replacement, Off and Def are relative to average.) Those Royals are horrible. There appears to be a pretty strong correlation between offensive and defensive value on each team — is that because teams who are good at identifying talent are good on both sides of the ball?
Team Tot Off Def STL 212 54 39 CHN 185 47 18 DET 184 63 0 PHI 174 26 28 BOS 167 66 -21 MIL 164 30 15 ATL 160 11 26 TB 155 24 9 NYN 152 27 1 TEX 152 62 -33 BAL 135 28 -12 CHA 135 31 -15 NYA 135 28 -31 FLA 121 22 -33 TOR 115 -34 28 CLE 110 -7 -2 SD 110 -31 20 LAA 109 -27 16 COL 108 -11 -9 HOU 105 -25 9 OAK 105 -48 36 CIN 103 -10 -6 MIN 93 1 -34 LAN 93 -41 15 PIT 91 0 -27 ARI 65 -41 -13 SF 58 -59 -2 SEA 51 -58 -14 WAS 35 -69 -19 KC 15 -60 -49
Remember how trading Adam Jones to the Orioles in exchange for Erik Bedard was going to lead the Mariners to the promised land? Well, that same Adam Jones has been the tenth most valuable center fielder in the majors this year.
I haven’t mentioned anything about pitchers, but Justin’s rated them, too.
Update: Justin just posted the numbers through games of August 4th.
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Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.