skyking162

Tristan Cockraft of ESPN.com has another one of those articles up about how Wins are a dumb pitching stat (they are) and how his new Quality Start off-shoot is the solution to that problem (it’s not). Quality Starts (at least 6 IP and at most 3 ER) are definitely better than Wins because they ignore run support, something outside a pitcher’s control. Cockcroft thinks his Winnable Starts (at least 7 IP and at most 3 ER) are better than Quality Starts because… well, he doesn’t provide much proof. But even if they are better, it’s a small improvement and completely misses the main shortcoming with Wins, Quality Starts, and Winnable Starts:

They are all black-and-white stats — a pitcher either earns one or doesn’t.

I think we all realize that there are many shades of gray between a perfect game and a typical Livan Hernandez start. So why pick one point in between and draw the line there? Why not instead recognize that there’s a sliding scale to performance?

I’ve advocated one option in the past, Game Score. And you cold also go the Support-Neutral Wins route. But both of those are all-encompassing — they’re too good. In fantasy, most leagues want a mix of different stats that value a pitcher in combination, not one stat that does it all.

So how about something a little simpler? For this simple new stat, let’s keep the general idea behind the Quality Start: more innings and fewer runs are both good things. We just need to find the balance between quantity and quality of innings.

A starter only has value if he’s better than a replacement pitcher, which means better than a 5.75 ERA (I’m going to round to 6 for the sake of simplicity.) He saves his team runs by allowing fewer runs than a 6.00 ERA pitcher. And the more innings he pitches, the more he helps, because the team can only be expected to provide a replacement-level pitcher for those additional innings. Here’s the formula for runs prevented:

(6.00 - ERA)*IP/9

We can get rid of the divide-by-nine thing because it just re-scales the first part. And we can replace the pitcher’s ERA with it’s definition:

(6 - ER/IP*9)*IP

By distributing the IP and factoring out a 3 (again, it just changes the scale), we get:

2*IP - 3*ER

That’s simple and intuitive: 3 points for pitching an inning and -2 points for giving up a run. It’s similar to ERA, but favors starters instead of relievers because starters get way more innings. A 180 IP starter with a 3.50 ERA is three times as valuable as 60 IP reliever with the same ERA. In fact, to match a 3.50 ERA reliever, a starter only needs a 5.15 ERA to be as valuable. I think that’s a good balance between just using ERA, which promotes using only relievers, or just using IP, which promotes picking up any hack off the waiver wire. All those league-average 4.50 starters will have value, which they should.

So do you think “two points per inning, minus three poing for each run” has any chance of catching on? Would a catchy acronym help it or hurt? Either way, it’s sure better than Winnable Starts (and Wins).

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If you missed the original article about my ranking of the top ten players of right now and its gazillion comments, go read it. Today I’m going to continue down through the top 25 players (well, top 23, but more on that later) and do some minor editing of the top ten.

Once again, the three numbers listed are my pseudo-scientific estimates of each player’s wins above average on offense and defense, plus a position adjustment. I also gave AL players a half win bonus for league difficulty.

I’m leaving the top eight spots the same as they were in my original article. Based on reader feedback, I bumped Grady Sizemore down half a win in the field, but was able to leave him in the same spot — by my ratings he’s now tied with Joe Mauer instead of Chase Utley. Also, I more heavily mentally-regressed Josh Hamilton’s offensive rating — I realized i was giving him too much credit for his bat based on less than a full season’s worth of plate appearances. That kicks him out of the top ten. And since there was no specific number ten before, I forced myself to fill spots nine and ten.

Here you go, my 8th through 23rd best position players right now — these are the players you want on your team for the second half of the season:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Chipper Jones
4. Chase Utley
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Joe Mauer
7. David Wright
8. Curtis Granderson
9. Miguel Cabrera (4.5 off, -1.0 pos, -.5 field) — He has an outside shot of winning the AL MVP award this year. If he hits like he has in the past (he should) and if the Tigers make a run at the division (they should), then he’ll be running on the same platform that Justin Morneau did in 2006.
10. Carlos Beltran (2.0 off, .5 pos, +1.0 field) — Mets fans just don’t appreciate what they have in this guy. Dan O’Dowd does — he was rumored to have offered Matt Holliday to the Mets in return for Beltran. $18MM per season is a good deal in today’s game.
11. Hanley Ramirez (4.0 off, .5 pos, -1.0 field)– He’s an obvious top five player if he could really play shortstop. He’s supposedly improved his glove this season, but -1.0 in the field is still generous given his track record of -2.0.
12. Josh Hamilton (2.5 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — Yes, he was number nine on my original list, but I needed to bump his offensive rating down a step. He’s on pace in 2008 to be 3.0 wins above replacement according to B-Ref, but that’s including a generous park adjustment and ignores that he wasn’t this good last year. Let’s just say that my mental regression wasn’t strong enough originally.
13. David Ortiz (4.5 off, -1.5 pos, 0 field) — He’s one of the top five hitters in the game (once healthy, naturally), but can’t play the field. And if I gave any thought to baserunning, he’s bad at that, too.
14. Matt Holliday (3.5 off, -.5 pos, .5 field) — Yes, he deserves a penalty for playing in Coors. But no, you shouldn’t just quote his road stats. I almost rated him a step worse in the field because of his poor arm, but, well, I didn’t.
15. Brian McCann (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, 0 field) — He probably deserves a higher defensive rating, but I was already conservative with Mauer who’s definitely a notch ahead of McCann. You know, I’m probably overrating catchers a bit because they don’t play as much as players at other positions and would suffer in a replacement-level analysis. That’s why I’m listing McCann at the end of this tier.
16. Jose Reyes (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Suddenly underrated, Reyes is extremely valuable to the Mets. He hasn’t fielded well this year — Mets fans call it lack of focus — but he has a track record of being a plus with the glove. Reyes is clearly the second-best shortstop in the majors. Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins supporters can go back to resting on their MVP and Gold Glove laurels.
17. Lance Berkman (4.0 off, -1.0 pos, 0 field) — Here’s a good target for some quality over-reacting to 2008 numbers. He’s really good, but not 2008 good, and has no zero defensive value.
18. Mark Teixeira (3.0 off, -1.0 pos, 1.0 field) — Remember early last year when everyone was screaming about his power outage? He might not get back to hitting 40+ homeruns, but he’s still a stud (and walking more and striking out less). It’s the glove that separates him from most of the 1B pack.
19. Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has a lot of room to grow. One reason I really like making these lists is to see guys like Longoria (unproven young players with all-around games) fall next to guys like Berkman (gritty veterans with big bats and MVP campaigns). Do you think Ed Wade would trade Berkman for Longoria? No way, although he probably should, especially considering Longoria’s contract.
20. Brian Roberts (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — I originally had him much higher, but realized I was overreacting to two good seasons out of many. Where’s Ian Kinsler? Off taking extra infield practice.
21. BJ Upton (1.5 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — He’s getting a LOT of crap for his decreased power this year and looking lazy in center field. But his OBP is still in the .380 range and he’s still an above-average fielder even if he has more room to grow. More room to grow — that’s become a theme for Tampa players.
22. Mark Ellis (.5 off, 0 pos, 2.0 field) — You’re probably sick of me touting this guy by now, but he’s one of the best fielders in the game and has a slightly above-average bat to boot. An average-fielding second baseman would have to hit like Nick Markakis or Jermaine Dye to be equally valuable.
23. Rick Ankiel (2.0 off, .5 pos, .5 field) — Remember when I predicted last off-season that Drew wouldn’t be more than a fourth outfielder? Yeah, I was wrong. He’s shown power, the ability to take a walk, and plus-range in center. Outfielder arm ratings aren’t available for 2008 yet, but I think he’ll score fine in that department, too. I encourage Ryan Braun apologists to compare their 2008 stat lines — Ankiel’s better even before taking defense into account.

In case you’re curious, listed below are the players that fall in the tier below numbers 16 to 23 listed above. I’ve only estimated ratings for about 70 players so far, so there’s a chance someone has slipped through the cracks. In no particular order…

Scott Rolen, Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, Vlad Guerrero, JD Drew, Nick Markakis, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Guillen, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, David DeJesus, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Milton Bradley.

As always, feel free to disagree with me in the comments. Please make sure to bring some data or logic to the party, though.

Popularity: 21% [?]

Update: The Top 25

I’ve read a lot of articles answering questions like “which player has had the best season so far” or “which player would you rather have for the next five years” or “which player has the most trade value”. But rarely do people address who the best player is right now. That is, for the second half of the 2008 season, who would you most want to have on your team?

Naturally, I’m considering offensive production, position, and fielding ability, the last two of which often get overlooked. I’m not going to overreact to 2008 stats, because 2006 and 2007 are probably more important. And I’m only going to look at position players for now.

The ratings represent my unscientific (although I look at some stats) estimate of number of wins above average over a full season. Feel free to ignore them or take issue with them. Here’s an explanation of position adjustments. The fielding ratings are relative to each player’s position. I also included a half win bonus for all AL players to account for the difference in pitching quality between leagues (not listed, however).

That’s enough setup. Here are my ten best position players in the majors right now:

1. Albert Pujols (5.5 off, -1 pos, 1.5 field) — His bat is the best in the game and his amazing glove at first base makes up for the fact that he does only play first base. There are some injury concerns, but not enough to really worry.
2. Alex Rodriguez (5.0 off, 0 pos, 0 field) — He can match Pujols’ power, but not his on-base abilities. You would think ARod would be a plus defender at third from his Gold Glove shortstop days, but no — some metrics have even put him a bit below-average recently.
3. Chase Utley (3.5 off, 0 pos, 1.5 field) — There are ten players who can match Utley’s bat, but none of them can match his defensive value. His glove rated as even better than this in 2007, too. He wins the tie-breaker over Chipper thanks to his relative youth.
4. Chipper Jones (4.5 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Thanks to his insane on-base abilities, I see Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz (assuming he’s healthy) as the only two hitters other than Pujols and ARod who can match him at the plate. There isn’t much doubt that he’s now an asset in the field, too, which was not the case in his younger days.
5. Grady Sizemore (2.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — I wrote somewhere else that Grady Sizemore is Joe DiMaggio reincarnated. Sizemore isn’t quite that good at the plate, but I’m astounded that he doesn’t receive more recognition as the complete package of a ballplayer.
6. Joe Mauer (2.5 off, 1.0 pos, .5 field) — This one’s a real surprise to me. I had no idea Mauer was quite this valuable. I even bumped him down half a win in the field so he wouldn’t be any higher. Yes, he does deserve an offensive rating that high — he has the eighth highest on-base percentage since the beginning of 2006, right between Lance Berkman and Manny Ramirez. And he’s a catcher with an excellent reputation.
7. David Wright (3.5 off, 0 def, .5 field) — I think Wright is actually a little bit underrated offensively, because he doesn’t put up huge power numbers. They’re merely pretty good to go along with an excellent on-base percentage. 40+ homeruns are sexy. .400+ OBPs are not. Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez, Prince Fielder, and Utley are the other players I rated as 3.5 bats.
8. Curtis Granderson (1.5 off, .5 pos, 1.5 field) — Honestly, he could be even higher than this based on his amazing 2007, but I’m going to demand he do more before I completely buy the +2.5 bat or the +2.5 glove. My conservatism could also be treated as a proxy for Granderson’s complete inability to hit lefties, which really hurts in high-leverage situations.
9. Josh Hamilton (3.0 off, .5 pos, 0 field) — While a touch overhyped right now thanks to his gaudy RBI total and the Home Run Derby, you can’t ignore a center fielder with bat like his.
10. To Close To Call — I’ve got six players at the next level below Wright/Granderson/Hamilton: Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran (in no particular order). My gut says to go with Beltran or Cabrera, but I probably shouldn’t nitpick the difference between 10th and 15th on the list when they’re all a half step behind 9th.

If you’re curious, after the players listed in the tenth spot, my next group consists of Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Milton Bradley, Evan Longoria, Jose Reyes, Rick Ankiel, Brian Roberts, Mike Lowell, BJ Upton, and Mark Ellis.

What do you think? Who’s too high? Who did I miss that should have made the top ten?

Popularity: 31% [?]

Last fall, I made a post about jumping on the Rays bandwagon. That post serves as proof I’m not coming late to the party this year.

This post, while lacking similar substance to the Rays post, serves as my official notice that I’m now (also) jumping on the Pirates bandwagon. As the traditionally inept Pittsburgh organization begins to make intelligent decisions and becomes the pride of the National League, I want to be able to point to this post and say I’ve been along for the ride all along.

Anyone else want to join me?

Popularity: 11% [?]

A post like this about the Brewers’ second-half stats should be required writing for every team blog out there. At the All-Star break, all anybody talks about is second-half expectations. Instead of quoting first-half numbers, just take an hour and run a real projection. Crazy idea, huh?

Here’s a good article by Eric Seidman on why simply quoting prior stats is lazy, wrong, and stupid.

Update: It seem there are some more blogs who agree that this is a fantastic article to run. Let me know if you read any others and I’ll add them to the list…

Athletics
Brewers
Mets
Indians

Popularity: 7% [?]