For reference, here are the 2007 team payrolls. The AL average is $93 million while the NL comes in at $74 million. That $19 million difference buys 4-5 wins on the free agent market, explaining much of the talent disparity between the leagues.
The Marlins will have an even lower payroll next season, but should still win 75 games. The two Florida teams (now that the Rays are under better management) have an impressive collection of talent for as little as they spend on free agents. Assuming both teams bump up the payroll to make a run in the next few years, I have no problem with that strategy. It sure beats what the Orioles and Reds are doing.
Lg Organization Payroll
A New York Yankees $189,639,045
A Boston Red Sox $143,026,214
A Los Angeles Angels $109,251,333
A Chicago White Sox $108,671,833
A Seattle Mariners $106,460,833
A Detroit Tigers $95,180,369
A Baltimore Orioles $93,554,808
A Toronto Blue Jays $81,942,800
A Oakland Athletics $79,366,940
A Minnesota Twins $71,439,500
A Texas Rangers $68,318,675
A Kansas City Royals $67,116,500
A Cleveland Indians $61,673,267
A Tampa Bay Rays $24,123,500
N New York Mets $115,231,663
N Los Angeles Dodgers $108,454,524
N Chicago Cubs $99,670,332
N St. Louis Cardinals $90,286,823
N San Francisco Giants $90,219,056
N Philadelphia Phillies $89,428,213
N Houston Astros $87,759,000
N Atlanta Braves $87,290,833
N Milwaukee Brewers $70,986,500
N Cincinnati Reds $68,904,980
N San Diego Padres $58,110,567
N Colorado Rockies $54,424,000
N Arizona Diamondbacks $52,067,546
N Pittsburgh Pirates $38,537,833
N Washington Nationals $37,347,500
N Florida Marlins $30,507,000
Unlike in the AL, where ARod was the obvious choice, nobody seems to agree on who the NL MVP is. In fact, none of the front-runners (Rollins, Holliday, Fielder) are top-five material. I’d be ok if any of the top four guys listed below end up winning it. Here are the details of the rankings:
Only position players are included, because I don’t yet have a good system for pitchers. My guess is that Jake Peavy would fall fifth. RAR is offensive runs above replacement. POS is the positional adjustment. FAA is fielding runs above average relative to position. TVAR is total runs above replacement, the overall rating. A full season of an average player (Coco Crisp or Michael Young, for example) would be worth about 20 runs. 10 runs is about the same as one win.
2007 NL MVP Ballot
10 - Prince Fielder (74 RAR -9 POS -9 FAA 56 TVAR)
Yes, he’s a beast at the plate. No, he’s not an asset in the field. MVP candidate? Sure. MVP? Nope.
9 - Barry Bonds (67 RAR -3 POS -6 FAA 59 TVAR)
Sure, he might be a felon, but if Bonds plays in 2008, he’ll continue to be a stud and there will be a lot of teams wondering why they didn’t sign him.
8 - Todd Helton (53 RAR -9 POS 15 FAA 59 TVAR)
Todd Helton’s the anti-Fielder. Well, he’s actually a very good fielder, but you know what I mean.
7 - Jose Reyes (39 RAR 6 POS 15 FAA 60 TVAR)
Don’t I mean Jimmy Rollins? Nope. For Jimmy, see #11. Reyes actually isn’t that much ahead of Rollins, but his edge in fielding is just bit larger than his disadvantage on offense.
6 - Matt Holliday (61 RAR -5 POS 11 FAA 67 TVAR)
If you want to define MVP with some sort of mystical bent just to move Holliday up in the rankings, go for it. But that doesn’t mean he was the best player. That sounds a little harsh — just a year ago Holliday was extremely underrated.
5 - Carlos Beltran (51 RAR 6 POS 14 FAA 70 TVAR)
Is it merely a coincidence that Carlos Pena and Carlos Beltran were the fifth best players in their respective leagues and both were worth exactly 70 runs above replacement? Ok, of course it is. Beltran’s the rare guy who signed a huge free agent contract and can now be considered a steal. How can someone this good be so underrated?
4 - Chipper Jones (71 RAR -1 POS 10 FAA 80 TVAR)
Given the margin of error on these things, I wouldn’t throw a hissy fit if Chipper received some first place votes (as long as they came from a non-Atlantian writer.) The top four guys were a clear step above the rest.
3 - Chase Utley (61 RAR 0 POS 21 FAA 81 TVAR)
Missing a month to injury doesn’t help your value, but total domination during the other five months certainly does. If (and that’s a big if) Utley had played a full season at the same level of production, he would be a lock for NL MVP.
2 - Albert Pujols (73 RAR -9 POS 23 FAA 87 TVAR)
Other than risking an all-time great player to an injury and already having an all-time great fielder in Scott Rolen at third base, there’s really no reason not to move Pujols back to his original position. I can’t remember a player who’s had so many seasons of being the second best player in his league. In addition to winning the MVP award in 2005, Pujols has three second-place finishes, a third, and a fourth (his rookie season and his lowest finish in any season.)
1 - David Wright (76 RAR -1 POS 15 FAA 89 TVAR)
DWright makes it a sweep for New York third basemen. Many people were surprised at his Gold Glove and excellent fielding metrics this year, but it’s a good example how range can overcome a bad arm. Wright’s season was very similar to Pujols’ on both offense and defense.
Here’s the rest of the top twenty-five, with ties:
Of those guys, some will receive significant MVP love (Rollins, Howard, Byrnes, Martin) while some won’t even cross voters’ minds (Rowand, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Greene, Hart).
Want to peruse the top 25 players at each position? Here you go: 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | CA | LF | CF | RF
The AL MVP will be announced later today, so it seems like a good time to present my MVP ballot. Yes, I’ve done this before, but I found a small error in my calculations and I’ve incorporated an additional set of fielding data.
That’s not to say the rankings are now perfect. They definitely aren’t. I could continue to tweak constants such as positional adjustments. I may find another small computational error. Or there may be sweeping improvements in defensive rankings (Justin, for one, has incorporated the Fans Scouting Report alongside the two metrics I averaged together).
With all that room for improvement, why do I bother to give “my” numbers any merit? Because they’re still better than most of the stuff out there. VORP has serious flaws with positional adjustments and replacement level. BPro’s fielding metric is awful. And Win Shares, well, I’m shocked anyone still pays them any attention. Those are just a few examples.
Regarding whether they’re “my” numbers or not, they’re not. I’m just following methods laid out by other people, mostly Patriot and Tangotiger. I’ll eventually get around to explaining the methodology, but it’s pretty similar to what Justin explains thoroughly in his series on valuation.
One caveat I will throw out there is that any set of values, including these, isn’t as precise as you’d desire. I’m displaying numbers rounded to the nearest run, but any difference under five runs is not meaningful. It would take a difference of ten runs for me to feel pretty confident that one player was more valuable than another, and there are still going to be times when larger differences are lying.
Ok, on to the 2007 AL MVP ballot. Only position players are included, because I don’t yet have a good system for pitchers. My guess is that CC Sabathia would fall somewhere between fifth and eighth. RAR is offensive runs above replacement. POS is the positional adjustment. FAA is fielding runs above average relative to position. TVAR is total runs above replacement, the overall rating. A full season of an average player (Coco Crisp or Michael Young, for example) would be worth about 20 runs. 10 runs is about the same as one win.
2007 AL MVP Ballot
10 - Victor Martinez (48 RAR 9 POS 0 FAA 58 TVAR)
VMart’s the first of two catchers to make the top ten. He should thank Eric Wedge for letting him play first base on his “days off”.
9 - Grady Sizemore (60 RAR 7 POS -3 FAA 63 TVAR)
Some people think his defense is a lot better than this. If so, he belongs in the top five.
8 - Vlad Guerrero (75 RAR -5 POS -6 FAA 64 TVAR)
Talk about an overhyped MVP candidate. I think Vlad’s support just comes from the fact that he’s the best player on the Angels, who were a playoff team. Maybe his past ten years of domination come into play, too.
7 - David Ortiz (81 RAR -13 POS -1 FAA 67 TVAR)
Yes, he’s a monster offensively. He would also be a monster defensively, which is why the positional penalty for DHs is so high. That being said, Big Papi’s 2007 season is being underrated by many people, which is too bad.
6 - Jorge Posada (62 RAR 8 POS -2 FAA 68 TVAR)
Again, I probably should be giving catchers a bit more of a positional bonus, but a few runs in these rankings isn’t very significant.
5 - Carlos Pena (75 RAR -8 POS 3 FAA 70 TVAR)
Pena’s definitely the biggest surprise on the ballot. In the past couple years he’s been released by the Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox. You think any of those teams aren’t kicking themselves?
4 - Ichiro Suzuki (59 RAR 6 POS 13 FAA 79 TVAR)
Some people claim Ichiro’s overrated as a hitter and some people claim he’s a legit MVP candidate. They’re all right.
3 - Magglio Ordonez (86 RAR -4 POS 3 FAA 84 TVAR)
He’s ARod’s strongest competition with the bat, but it’s just not close enough. That’s not to say we shouldn’t also be celebrating Maggs’ season.
2 - Curtis Granderson (65 RAR 6 POS 21 FAA 92 TVAR)
He had a very good offensive year, plays center field, and plays center field extremely well. Granderson’s the ideal all-around player, unless you include the ability to hit lefties in the discussion.
1 - Alex Rogriguez (100 RAR -1 POS -2 FAA 97 TVAR)
ARod should definitely be an unanimous MVP pick. Sure, Granderson’s close, but if you think anyone’s going to put ARod second in favor of him, you’re crazy. Any non-ARod votes will be for Ordonez or perhaps David Ortiz. And both of those choices are even more absurd.
Here’s the rest of the top twenty-five, with ties:
A quick review of the stats presented: RAR is offensive runs above replacement, FAA is fielding runs compared to positional average, TVAR is total value (the important one), and wOBA is a rate stat measuring offensive performance on the OBP scale. For more complete explanations, check out the original article.
Catcher defense is a strange beast. Instead of being responsible for turning balls in play into outs, the main responsibilities of a catcher are preventing passed balls and helping the pitcher control the running game. Therefore, fielding grades can’t be computed in the same way as for other positions. I don’t have a way of rating catchers, but Justin came up with a basic system a couple weeks ago. Do I think it’s more accurate than sliced bread? No. Do I think it’s better than assuming all catchers are league-average? Definitely. Of course, if you disagree, feel free to ignore the fielding ratings. (Blanks mean the player wasn’t listed on Justin’s chart due to lack of playing time.)
2007’s Top Ten Catchers
10 - Carlos Ruiz (6 RAR, 6 FAA, 19 TVAR, .298 wOBA)
19 total runs above replacement is probably a touch low, to be honest. I’m using a positional adjustment of 10 runs over the course of a full season, when it really should be more like 15. Either way, Carlos Ruiz is the most boring player to make the top ten players at any position.
9 - Yadier Molina (3 RAR, 11 FAA, 20 TVAR, .302 wOBA)
Here’s a Flying Molina Brother that lived up to his defensive reputation in 2007. Who needs hitting?
8 - Chris Snyder (10 RAR, 6 FAA, 21 TVAR, .317 wOBA)
Snyder’s another Diamondback secret weapon, producing at better than league average. He’s also the only guy other than Eric Byrnes I don’t expect to take a step forward next year.
7 - Brian McCann (15 RAR, -2 FAA, 22 TVAR, .318 wOBA)
Did the Braves trade the wrong young catcher? It’s tough not to love McCann’s 2006 performance, but 2008 will go a long ways towards showing whether it was a fluke or not.
6 - Kenji Johjima (10 RAR, 10 FAA, 28 TVAR, .326 wOBA)
We’re getting to the part of the catcher list bordering on All-Star level. Really. When you consider the unique skill set for catchers, there aren’t a lot of guys who can play the position. And when you consider that playing catcher likely causes a decrease in hitting, guys like Johjima are quite valuable relative to the alternatives.
5 - Jason Varitek (18 RAR, 7 FAA, 33 TVAR, .327 wOBA)
The Captain isn’t the stud he used to be, but he’s still earning his salary.
4 - Joe Mauer (28 RAR, 10 FAA, 45 TVAR, .344 wOBA)
You know, even if this is a typical Joe Mauer season going forward, it’s still huge. Other guys who are 45 runs above replacement: Ryan Howard, Brian Roberts, and Alex Rios.
3 - Russell Martin (34 RAR, 7 FAA, 50 TVAR, .366 wOBA)
Up until two hours ago I firmly believed Martin was over-hyped and over-rated. Not any more, although he’s no MVP candidate.
2 - Victor Martinez (48 RAR, 6 FAA, 64 TVAR, .364 wOBA)
He’s probably overrated by a few runs relative to other catchers thanks to playing first base one game per week. But he and Grady Sizemore were the two most valuable Cleveland position players in 2007.
1 - Jorge Posada (62 RAR, -2 FAA, 68 TVAR, .408 wOBA)
This guy IS an MVP candidate, if you define candidate as a player who belongs on the ballot, probably top five.
Here are the guys who finished in spots 11 through 25:
Ivan Rodriguez just might be one of the most overrated players in the game. Evidently Josh Bard isn’t just bad at catching Tim Wakefield’s knucklers. Geovany Soto deserves to be the Cubs starting catcher in 2008, unless the Rays can snag him as part of a Carl Crawford deal.
Finally how about the worst catchers of 2007 — those that played poorly, yet enough to really hurt their teams? Here are the bottom five:
Jason Kendal was just horrible in 2007. How many more years will teams allow him to be their starting catcher? Can he rival Brad Ausmus for whatever dubious honors Ausmus has accumulated?
The rest of the best baseball players by position: 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
A quick review of the stats presented: RAR is offensive runs above replacement, FAA is fielding runs compared to positional average, TVAR is total value (the important one), and wOBA is a rate stat measuring offensive performance on the OBP scale. For more complete explanations, check out the original article.
Because I don’t have data for defensive innings at designated hitter (does that even make sense?), players who were primarily DHs but played significant innings in the field are still treated as full-time DHs. That’s obviously not fair, but shouldn’t make a huge difference.
2007’s Top Ten Designated Hitters
10 - Jeff Clement (4 RAR, 0 FAA, 4 TVAR, .539 wOBA)
Yup, a late-season call-up with 16 hot at-bat was the tenth most productive “DH” in 2007. I understand not wanting to commit big bucks to a player who won’t contribute in the field, but there’s got to be a spot for Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn as a DH somewhere, no?
9 - Sammy Sosa (14 RAR, 2 FAA, 6 TVAR, .316 wOBA)
At $500,000, Sosa’s 2007 was a decent deal for the Rangers and made for a great comeback story. But here’s hoping your favorite team doesn’t think he’s anything more than a part-time, minimum-wage lefty-basher.
8 - Billy Butler (17 RAR, -1 FAA, 8 TVAR, .331 wOBA)
Butler can definitely swing a bat. If you want to help settle a bet among friends, do you think he’ll outperform Jack Cust next year?
7 - Jason Giambi (16 RAR, -1 FAA, 9 TVAR, .347 wOBA)
It seems that the Yankees are willing to play Giambi at first base until he breaks down. That’s not a bad plan given what they have, but there should have been a better plan earlier.
6 - Jose Vidro (30 RAR, -3 FAA, 13 TVAR, .341 wOBA)
By my count, the Mariners had four guys who should be DHs: Vidro, Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Guillen. Somebody tell Bill Bavasi he can’t use a designated hitter for all of Jose Lopez, Rafael Betancourt, and the starting pitcher.
5 - Frank Thomas (37 RAR, 0 FAA, 24 TVAR, .361 wOBA)
No, 500 homeruns probably isn’t as impressive as it used to be. But when you hear people use that argument to discount The Big Hurt’s career, remind them he also walked, hit for a high average, and cranked his fair share of doubles.
4 - Travis Hafner (44 RAR, 1 FAA, 31 TVAR, .351 wOBA)
Hafner went from MVP candidate to a big question mark. What happened? I’m hoping we’ll look back in a few years and see it as a fluke season.
3 - Gary Sheffield (43 RAR, 3 FAA, 33 TVAR, .372 wOBA)
Sheffield was a forgotten man in Detroit. He missed 29 games, but still managed to rack up 589 plate appearances.
2 - Jim Thome (51 RAR, 0 FAA, 40 TVAR, .392 wOBA)
In 2001, Jim Thome got off to a slow start and I proclaimed his career was over. That was the last time I was wrong about anything.
1 - David Ortiz (81 RAR, -1 FAA, 67 TVAR, .427 wOBA)
Based purely on offense, Big Papi was the third most productive hitter in the majors, a step behind Magglio Ordonez. Sure, his homerun total was down, but he made up for that in many other ways.
How about the worst designated hitters of 2007 — those that played poorly, yet enough to really hurt their teams? Here’s the bottom five:
That Mike Piazza makes this list really hurts me. I’m holding out hope that he never quite recovered from his early season injury and 2008 will silence his doubters. Remember when people were up in arms because the Red Sox gave away Shea Hillenbrand? Yeah, much ado about nothing.
The rest of the top players by position: 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.