skyking162

I’ve previously established that Lou Whitaker is no Joe Morgan (who in turn is no Willie Mays). But how does Sweet Lou stack up against the rest of the best second basemen of the past fifty years? I ran the numbers on eight other players who are either already in the Hall of Fame, rate highly in career OPS+, or rate highly in career fielding runs. Those players are Rod Carew, Bill Mazeroski, Willie Randolph, Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Kent, Bobby Grich, and Craig Biggio. (I’m shocked at how few modern second basemen are in the Hall.)

I may be blowing the surprise, but here’s the graph of all ten players’ careers, each with their seasonal wins above replacement sorted from best to worst. (Here’s a full screen version.)

The first thing I noticed is that Bill Mazeroski does not belong in the Hall of Fame based on career value, and it’s not even close. Sure, his fielding is reputed to be among the best ever, but his bat was so bad that he only had one season where he contributed significantly more than an average player. Yes, fielding is underrated, but it’s difficult to make a case for enshrinement with a career .299 OBP and .367 SLG. Maz deserves his own display for his Game 7 walk-off homerun in the 1960 World Series. But a plaque? No way.

Maz	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1956	277	-1.2	0.0	0.0	-0.3
1957	568	-0.4	0.3	0.0	1.7
1958	607	-0.4	2.1	0.0	3.6
1959	537	-2.5	-0.6	0.0	-1.4
1960	591	-0.5	-0.1	0.0	1.2
1961	595	-1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0
1962	617	-0.6	0.0	0.0	1.3
1963	576	-1.6	1.9	0.0	2.1
1964	644	-0.9	1.2	0.0	2.3
1965	527	-1.4	1.6	0.0	1.9
1966	660	-0.9	0.1	0.0	1.3
1967	679	-1.6	0.7	0.0	1.2
1968	556	-0.8	1.3	0.0	2.2
1969	256	-0.8	-0.6	0.0	-0.6
1970	404	-1.8	0.9	0.0	0.4
1971	213	-0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0
1972	72	-0.6	-0.5	0.0	-0.9

Rod Carew and Ryne Sandberg posted the two best seasons behind Joe Morgan’s 9+ win year. For Carew it was 1977, when he put up a .388/.449/.570 line thanks to 38 doubles, 16 triples, 14 homeruns, 239 total hits and 69 walks. For Sandberg, it was 1992, thanks to a typical .304/.371/.510 line and a career-best 21 runs above average in the field.

Looking at the rest of their careers, Carew was much more consistent and held on much longer after his peak. His career .393 OBP in .327 OBP leagues is amazing and provided most of his offensive value given that he hit only 92 career homeruns. Carew put up 67 career wins above replacement and had eight All-Star caliber years. On the other hand, Sandberg had only six seasons where he was even above average, totaling 52 career wins above replacement. By his seventh-best season, he no longer can be compared even to Willie Randolph.

Carew	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1967	561	0.9	0.0	0.0	2.6
1968	492	-0.4	-0.3	0.0	0.8
1969	504	2.2	0.6	0.0	4.4
1970	204	1.3	0.0	0.0	1.9
1971	632	0.4	-1.4	0.0	0.9
1972	591	1.4	0.5	0.0	3.8
1973	657	3.6	0.0	0.0	5.6
1974	690	4.4	-1.2	0.0	5.3
1975	617	4.4	0.5	-0.1	6.7
1976	687	4.0	1.3	-1.1	6.3
1977	694	6.6	0.4	-1.1	8.1
1978	651	3.3	-0.1	-1.0	4.2
1979	493	1.8	-0.3	-0.8	2.2
1980	612	2.6	-0.1	-0.9	3.4
1981	421	1.1	1.0	-0.6	2.7
1982	612	1.8	2.2	-0.9	5.0
1983	536	2.1	-0.7	-0.8	2.2
1984	378	0.2	0.1	-0.6	0.9
1985	518	0.2	-0.9	-0.8	0.1

RyneS	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1981	6	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.1
1982	687	-1.0	0.6	0.0	1.7
1983	699	-1.7	1.3	0.0	1.7
1984	700	3.2	1.8	0.0	7.1
1985	673	2.6	-0.2	0.0	4.4
1986	682	-0.3	0.2	0.0	2.0
1987	587	0.9	-1.3	0.0	1.4
1988	679	0.4	-0.5	0.0	2.0
1989	672	2.7	-0.8	0.0	3.9
1990	675	3.2	0.4	0.0	5.6
1991	684	3.4	1.5	0.0	7.0
1992	687	3.8	2.6	0.0	8.5
1993	503	0.6	0.1	0.0	2.3
1994	247	-0.6	0.7	0.0	0.9
1996	621	-0.5	0.6	0.0	2.0
1997	480	-1.2	1.0	0.0	1.3

Speaking of Willie Randolph, he’s probably the second-worst player to make the graph, but considering his name never pops up in Hall of Fame discussions, I might have to consider him underrated. Willie was basically a league-average hitter, with one very good season in 1980 with 119 walks and a .294/.427/.407 line. His strength was in the field where he tallied 52 career runs saved, including a season at +19 and two at +11. He’s probably not Hall of Fame material, but are there any second basemen better than him over the past fifty years other than the eight on the graph? That’s worth celebrating.

Willie	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1975	70	-0.7	0.1	0.0	-0.4
1976	500	0.4	2.4	0.0	4.3
1977	624	0.3	1.0	0.0	3.2
1978	596	1.3	1.3	0.0	4.5
1979	682	0.6	1.2	0.0	3.9
1980	642	3.1	0.0	0.0	5.1
1981	422	-0.3	0.0	0.0	1.0
1982	643	0.4	-1.5	0.0	0.9
1983	477	0.3	0.5	0.0	2.2
1984	664	1.0	-0.6	0.0	2.5
1985	597	0.9	0.7	0.0	3.4
1986	601	0.9	-0.3	0.0	2.4
1987	543	1.8	0.5	0.0	4.0
1988	474	-1.0	0.7	0.0	1.2
1989	633	0.4	-0.5	0.0	1.9
1990	446	-0.5	0.6	0.0	1.5
1991	512	2.0	0.1	0.0	3.7
1992	336	-0.1	-0.2	0.0	0.7

The best player left to talk about is Bobby Grich, who, to be honest, I hadn’t heard of until three weeks ago. Grich played for the Orioles and Angels, and made up for his mediocre career batting average (.266) with some power (591 XBHs in only 6890 career at-bats) and a lot of walks (1087). His career 125 OPS+ ranks eighth all time for second basemen with at least 3000 career plate appearances, ahead of everyone on this list except Joe Morgan. He could play defense, too, with 79 career runs prevented. While Grich didn’t have the longest career and missed parts of many seasons, he was an excellent player when in the lineup.

Grich	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1970	104	-0.7	0.5	0.0	0.1
1971	35	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.6
1972	528	1.9	1.2	0.2	5.0
1973	700	1.7	3.0	0.0	6.8
1974	707	3.3	0.6	0.0	6.1
1975	655	2.8	1.9	0.0	6.7
1976	615	3.0	0.0	0.0	4.9
1977	225	0.5	0.2	0.2	1.6
1978	591	0.3	1.0	0.0	3.1
1979	609	3.1	0.0	0.0	5.0
1980	596	1.7	0.7	0.0	4.2
1981	404	2.9	0.6	0.0	4.8
1982	605	2.0	0.0	0.0	3.9
1983	477	2.7	-0.5	0.0	3.7
1984	432	1.3	-1.2	-0.2	1.3
1985	571	0.2	0.8	-0.2	2.6
1986	366	0.5	0.3	-0.1	1.9

We’re now down to Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Kent, three players with extremely similar careers. Biggio’s turquoise line lies mostly above the other two, although he has more below-average seasons. As a player we’ve all watched, there’s not much I can add, other than emphasize that his bat made up for a pretty poor glove (-53 career runs after moving out from behind the plate.) Bill James once called Biggio the best player of the 1990s and those ten years definitely were his peak, averaging 4.7 wins above replacement.

Biggio	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1988	131	-0.5		0.2	0.1
1989	509	0.9		0.9	3.4
1990	621	-0.4		1.0	2.5
1991	609	1.1	-0.2	1.4	4.1
1992	721	2.1	-1.3	0.0	3.0
1993	706	2.7	1.0	0.0	5.9
1994	511	2.7	-0.6	0.0	3.7
1995	673	3.7	-0.7	0.0	5.0
1996	723	2.2	-0.7	0.0	3.7
1997	744	4.3	0.9	0.0	7.5
1998	738	3.8	0.6	0.0	6.7
1999	749	1.6	0.7	0.0	4.6
2000	466	-0.2	-0.2	0.0	1.0
2001	717	1.1	-2.2	0.0	1.1
2002	655	-1.1	-0.3	0.0	0.6
2003	717	-0.2	-0.7	0.6	1.8
2004	700	0.3	-0.8	-0.1	1.5
2005	651	0.2	-0.6	0.0	1.6
2006	607	-1.3	0.5	0.0	1.1
2007	555	-2.2	-0.9	0.0	-1.4

Alomar’s best season trumps Kent’s, but Kent has the advantage from years three to five. Past that, there’s no difference. They were equally talented offensively, with Kent’s strength coming from his power and Alomar making up that gap with a small on-base advantage and the ability to steal bases at a high rate. They were also equally poor in the field.

Alomar	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1988	611	0.3	0.4	0.0	2.5
1989	702	0.7	-0.5	0.0	2.4
1990	646	-0.2	1.3	0.0	3.1
1991	719	1.2	0.6	0.0	4.0
1992	671	2.6	-0.2	0.0	4.4
1993	683	3.5	-1.6	0.0	4.0
1994	455	1.0	-1.4	0.0	1.0
1995	577	0.6	-0.5	0.0	1.9
1996	699	3.3	0.4	0.0	5.8
1997	469	2.0	-0.4	0.0	3.0
1998	657	0.1	0.9	0.0	3.1
1999	694	3.5	1.3	0.0	7.0
2000	697	1.3	0.1	0.0	3.5
2001	677	4.2	-1.1	0.0	5.1
2002	655	-1.0	-0.5	0.0	0.5
2003	598	-1.3	-2.1	0.0	-1.6
2004	190	-0.5	-1.2	-0.1	-1.2

Kent	PAs	Bat	Field	Pos	WAR
1992	343	0.2	-0.6	0.0	0.6
1993	544	0.1	-1.5	0.0	0.3
1994	452	0.6	0.9	0.0	2.9
1995	514	0.5	0.5	0.0	2.6
1996	477	0.1	-0.6	-0.1	0.8
1997	651	0.4	0.4	0.0	2.8
1998	594	3.1	0.3	0.0	5.2
1999	585	1.9	0.0	0.0	3.7
2000	695	5.4	-1.8	-0.1	5.7
2001	696	2.9	0.7	-0.2	5.6
2002	682	3.9	-0.4	0.0	5.6
2003	552	1.3	-0.7	0.0	2.3
2004	606	1.6	0.2	0.0	3.7
2005	637	2.7	0.2	0.0	4.9
2006	473	1.3	-0.9	0.0	1.8
2007	562	1.6	-0.3	0.0	3.0

How about one more table, comparing the number of seasons each second basemen produced above certain thresholds: 8 wins (serious MVP candidate), 6 wins (superstar), 4 wins (all-star), and 2 wins (league average). The list is sorted by career wins above replacement.

Player		WAR	8+	6+	4+	2+	<2
Morgan		84.0	3	2	5	7	5
Carew		67.2	1	2	5	6	5
Whitaker	66.0	0	2	4	10	3
Grich		62.2	0	3	6	3	5
Biggio		57.7	0	3	3	5	9
Sandberg	51.9	1	2	3	4	6
Kent		51.5	0	0	5	7	4
Alomar		48.5	0	1	5	7	5
Randolph	46.0	0	0	5	7	6
Mazeroski	15.7	0	0	0	5	12

Here’s how I would rank all ten players. I don’t think players should be voted into the Hall of Fame judged solely against their positional peers, but Cooperstown does seem large enough to include 6-8 second basemen from the past 50 years. That would make fans of everyone above Willie Randolph extremely happy. What do you think? Did I forget to include anyone important?

Morgan
Carew/Grich
Biggio/Whitaker/Sandberg
Alomar/Kent
Randolph
Mazeroski

Popularity: 11% [?]

Who were the best of best in 2007? Here are the second basemen.

1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA

A quick review of the stats presented: RAR is offensive runs above replacement, FAA is fielding runs compared to positional average, TVAR is total value (the important one), and wOBA is a rate stat measuring offensive performance on the OBP scale. For more complete explanations, check out the original article.

2007’s Top Ten Second Basemen

10 - Kelly Johnson (36 RAR, - FAA, 28 TVAR, .362 wOBA)
Here’s a guy I know nothing about, although apparently I should. He’s one of the reasons Atlanta quietly posted the best run differential in the NL East this year.

9 - Jeff Kent (34 RAR, -3 FAA, 31 TVAR, .368 wOBA)
He’s old, he’s annoying, but he can still play baseball. There have been attempts to move Kent away from second base, but considering his fielding was basically average this year, there’s no need for that yet, even as he enters his age 40 season.

8 - Aaron Hill (18 RAR, 13 FAA, 31 TVAR, .328 wOBA)
It’s strange to think that the eighth-best second baseman was barely an average hitter, but thanks to a weak positional crop and Hill’s excellent glove, that’s what we’ve got. JP Ricciardi is one GM who obviously understands the value of fielding.

7 - Brandon Phillips (24 RAR, 8 FAA, 32 TVAR, .341 wOBA)
Some prospects just take longer to hit their stride. Phillips came up through the Expos’ farm system, then struggled with Cleveland for a few year before being shipped off to Cincinnati. After all that, 2007 was only his age 26 season. Reds fans love him and for good reason.

6 - Ian Kinsler (29 RAR, 6 FAA, 35 TVAR, .341 wOBA)
Why does it seem like most second basemen are solid all around players? Maybe GMs and managers have that same stereotype in their heads or maybe I’m just imagining things. Either way, as the Rangers continue to look for a center fielder and starting rotation, they won’t be worried about second base.

5 - Robinson Cano (34 RAR, 7 FAA, 42 TVAR, .351 wOBA)
What is it with the Yankees and quality, hacktastic second basemen? Cano’s no Soriano with the bat, but he was just as valuable in 2007.

4 - Mark Ellis (23 RAR, 20 FAA, 42 TVAR, .341wOBA)
Here’s one that nobody would guess — Mark Ellis as a borderline all-star. He’s only making $5 million next year, but that represents a decent raise from 2006-2007.

3 - Brian Roberts (46 RAR, 2 FAA, 48 TVAR, .363 wOBA)
If I were an Orioles fan, Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard would be my two favorite players, mostly because they’re the only real choices. Thankfully I’m not an Orioles fan.

2 - Placido Polanco (46 RAR, 6 FAA, 52 TVAR, .370 wOBA)
Surprisingly, Polanco rates as only half a win above average in the field. Sure, he doesn’t make errors, but it looks like he’s lost some range. He doesn’t get enough credit for his bat, however.

1 - Chase Utley (61 RAR, 21 FAA, 81 TVAR, .412 wOBA)
Yes, Mr. Utley missed a month to injury. But even with that handicap he still rated as the best-hitting and best-fielding second baseman in the league. He’s definitely a top-five NL MVP candidate and the best player on the Phillies in 2007.

Here are the guys who finished in spots 11 through 25:

Player/TM		RAR	FAA	TVAR	wOBA
Pedroia,DustinLBOS	28	0	28	.353
DeRosa,MarkCHN		17	11	27	.335
Hudson,OrlandoARI	21	5	27	.342
Uggla,DanCFLA		31	-10	21	.347
Weeks,RickieMIL		30	-9	21	.357
Matsui,KazCOL		13	8	21	.317
Sanchez,FreddyPIT	25	-6	18	.336
Belliard,RonnieWAS	18	-1	17	.332
Grudzielanek,MarkKC	16	0	16	.328
Kendrick,HowieLAA	12	4	16	.336
Easley,DamionNYN	11	0	11	.359
Cabrera,AsdrubalCLE	6	4	10	.329
Iguchi,TadahitoPHI	8	2	10	.350
Blum,GeoffSD		5	3	8	.303
Velandia,JorgeTB	6	2	8	.409

For all the hoopla surrounding Kaz Matsui during the 2007 playoffs, he’s pretty average. There are a number of young guys on the list who could be considered disappointments: Freddy Sanchez, Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick, and Dan Uggla. Mark DeRosa was definitely underrated. Going forward, I’d like to have Dustin Pedroia, Tadahito Iguchi, and Asdrubal Cabrera, whom Tim McCarver told me is the first player named Asdrubal to ever play in the majors. Thanks, Tim.

Finally how about the worst two-baggers of 2007 — those that played poorly, yet enough to really hurt their teams? Here’s the bottom five:

Player/TM		RAR	FAA	TVAR	wOBA
Martinez,RamonELAN	-7	-4	-11	.219
Biggio,CraigHOU		-3	-9	-12	.283
Durham,RaySF		-5	-9	-14	.272
Casilla,AlexiMIN	-9	-7	-16	.236
Barfield,JoshLCLE	-10	-6	-16	.265

Oh, Craig Biggio. In the immortal words of Bill James, “pass”. Alexi Casilla is being billed as the next Luis Castillo — he definitely not there yet. The Indians gave Josh Barfield nearly all season to turn things around, but eventually had to turn to Asdrubal Cabrera, a 21-year old who out-hit and out-fielded Barfield. I think I know who’s getting first crack at the job in 2008.

The rest of the top players by position:
1B | 2B | SS | 3B | DH | LF | CF | RF | CA

Popularity: 17% [?]