Yankees 94 - The offense is awesome, the rotation is at least league-average, and the bullpen combo of Joba Chamberlain (anyone else enjoy pronouncing his first name Joe-Bay?) and Mariano Rivera is top-notch. It’s possible that a few injuries knock this team down into the high 80s in terms of wins, but 100 wins are just as likely. Red Sox 89 - Manny will be better, but Lowell and Beckett should be worse. Everyone’s older, which isn’t a good thing for most of the team. And The Nation’s new favorite son, Jacoby Ellsbury, won’t be much better than Coco right away. This is a good team, but one that should turn over significantly in the next year or two. Rays 85 - Yes, I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. I think Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs are just as good as their chances of finishing below .500. The reasons have been beaten to death, but more people need to pay attention. You’ll notice the biggest difference from 2007 in the team’s ERA, but the newly improved defense will deserve as much credit as the pitchers. Blue Jays 82 - I love the fielding, Aaron Hill, and the rotation’s potential. But David Eckstein, the catching situation, and aging vets Frank Thomas, Matt Stairs, and Scott Rolen will likely disappoint. Orioles 68 - This is a bad team, and will get worse when Brian Roberts is traded. Why they didn’t insist Adam Everett be included in the Tejada deal is beyond me. Putting this generation’s Ozzie Smith behind a young pitching staff would really help their growth. On the plus side, Luke Scott’s primed for a few very good offensive seasons.
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland 90 - Is anyone predicting them to win fewer than 90 games or more than 92? CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona didn’t exactly have flukey 2007 seasons, but expecting exact repeats in 2008 isn’t realistic. Travis Hafner needs to get back to this pre-2007 form to make this team a lock for the playoffs. Tigers 89 - I promise I’m not overreacting to the first six games, but the Detroit offense just isn’t as good as people think. They won’t score 900 runs, let alone 1000. Why not? Because Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Placido Polanco performed way over their heads last year. And Jacque Jones (although I like him better than most) and Ivan Rodriguez are weak links. A mediocre pitching staff (this is the year Bonderman puts it all together, however) combined with a spectacular offense is a division winner. A mediocre pitching staff combined with a very good offense is not. Royals 78 - I alluded to the Royals as a third-place team in my 30 in 30 preview, so I’ll stick to my guns here. Pitching and fielding were (relative) strengths in 2007, but I actually like the offense to be their main strength in 2008. Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon figure to rebound, and Billy Butler is a beast. White Sox 77 - Adding Nick Swisher was the only significant move of the off-season (Alexei Ramirez may make me look foolish in six months), but the players already on the team are much better than they showed in 2007. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko lead the list of candidates likely to rebound according to PrOPS. Fielding is still a problem, and Javier Vazquez will return to his career levels. Twins 70 - Yes, I love the young pitching and I think Francisco Liriano will be a Cy Young candidate. But the offense is poor, and some of the young pitchers will be busts. It’s an admitted rebuilding year, so no long term worries.
AL WEST
Angels 88 - This team will be the worst of any division winner in the AL or NL. Howie Kendrick is a great bet for a breakout season, and is also a very good fielder. Mariners 83 - If they do make a run for the division, it will be because of an Anaheim collapse. The offense is stale, with Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, and Adrian Beltre leading the way — not exactly intimidating. The fielding is bad, although not horrible. And the starting rotation behind Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez is not good. But those two guys are why this team won’t post a win total in the mid 70s. Bedard is awesome and Felix has no ceiling. (I don’t have to mention anything about overrating the M’s based on 2007’s run differential, do I?) A’s 78 - The A’s are my darkhorse candidate as a team winning their division out of nowhere. Rich Harden might stay healthy and they might have a handful of young guys bust onto the scene a year early. But I also like trying Duchscherer in the rotation and Billy Beane’s ability to find actually talent in the scrap heap of available veterans. For example, Emil Brown’s bat is a touch below average and he’s a good fielder. That being said, there aren’t a lot of bright spots expected for 2008. Rangers 76 - Note to Tom Hicks: Seriously, you need to find some starters, we’re not kidding. However, trading Edinson Volquez for a guy who might end up being listed in the same category as Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore isn’t a bad thing. And I do like the bullpen, Ben Broussard, and Kason Gabbard.
I’ll admit it, this is a mail-it-in preview. We had no Orioles’ bloggers interested in a round table and I had an eight-hour fantasy auction yesterday where I tried my best not to bid on any Orioles not named Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, or George Sherrill (Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis were keepers). And I think I overbid on Sherrill. Here are some quick-hit Oriole thoughts before I turn this into an Around The Web column:
Luke Scott isn’t being talked about enough. Yes, he’s old (already 30), but he’s hit 28 homeruns in 663 major league at-bats and sports a .273/.366/.516 career line. That’s better than Nick Markakis‘ .296/.357/.469 line. I know, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
The starting rotation is overrated. Daniel Cabrera might still have the potential to be an ace, but a 10% shot isn’t worth much. He is who he is. Jeremie Guthrie was lucky with his BABIP last year and should regress to a league-average ERA. Adam Loewen is all potential, and the rest of the options are not pretty: John Leicester, Matt Albers (isn’t that a Studio 60 character?), and Hayden Penn who seems to be moving backwards, not forwards.
The bullpen looks solid with Jamie Walker, George Sherrill, and Greg Aquino, but playing high-scoring games is a great way to unleverage the impact of a good bullpen. Just Baltimore being Baltimore.
I actually like this team a little better than most people, but there’s no way they’re better than the Blue Jays or Rays, who are both at least .500 teams. Given that the under/over is 65 wins, I think I’ll take the over.
Around The Web
Bashing on ignorant sports writers who try to bash sabermetrics isn’t as fun as it used to be, but with Dusty Baker, a local hack, and FireJoeMorgan teaming up, there’s bound to be some hilarity. Even if you think FJM has gotten old, you should read this post. Here’s another good take on the Cincinnati issue, in the form of an open letter to Dusty Baker on behalf of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
Joe Posnanski wrote a great article about the stupidity of the anti-stathead argument. Point one is that those folks often counter numbers-oriented arguments with… more numbers. They just stick with their own. Point two is that traditional numbers might seem simpler, but they’re actually anything but straight-forward. As Joe writes, “Sometimes, the anti-stathead crowd doesn’t realize something that’s worth realizing: The reason so many people keep working on new statistics is because the stats we grew up with are STUPID. And plenty confusing too.” Traditionalists are just choosing to stay inside their comfort zone.
Brian, from my favorite NFL analysis website, offers an explanation as to why maximizing your score in betting pools doesn’t necessarily maximize your chances of winning. Think about that when filling out your March Madness brackets in a week.
Speaking of well-written explanations of sports-related statistics, check out Sal’s write-up of regression and why it’s important. (Hat tip: everyone on the web.)
The Cardinals are giving fans a chance to find their next big draft success. Power to the people!
Joe P. Sheehan has yet another great post using Pitch f/x data. He breaks the strike zone up into smaller pieces and found the linear weights value of the average pitch to each location, including balls and strikes.
Wow, there certainly is a theme to today’s links. Some teams continue to take the traditional route and think Dusty Baker is their savior. But some organizations have embraced changing the way things are done based on all the data now available.
Some fans look at the Rays and Pirates and think it’s the same-old plan (finish last, draft top players, repeat). But some fans notice the Rays’ fielding is much improved and smart contracts have been handed out to talented young players and cheap veterans, or that the Pirates are doing things differently.
Some sports writers continue to whine for the good old days and wonder why print media is going extinct. But some writers embrace the blog format and are reaching a wider audience than ever.
I apologize for the preaching, but I’d love for this level of ignorance not to be around in another ten years. I have no problem with your favorite player being David Eckstein. Just please realize he’s not that good.
Ok, how about some (mostly) non-baseball links…
From longtime reader and non-baseball fan Ari comes this story of the mathematical study of Joba Chamberlain’s arch-enemy: the midge.
This project might sound a bit anal, but it’s probably more productive than anything I’ve done since graduating from college.
Oh, and this article is amusing enough on its own, but reading the comments left by readers who couldn’t figure out that it’s satire is a whole afternoon’s worth of fun.
Day 7 - (If you’ve noticed that we’re a day behind, shhh, don’t let anybody else know.) Welcome to the Colby Rasmus Show, also known as the St. Louis Cardinals 2008 season. If you don’t know that name, you sure will by the end of the round table. I just gave Rasmus an invitation to the SkyKing Man-Crush Team’s spring training, and I could see him making the opening day roster (for the Cardinals, too). Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. Here’s a list of links to all 30 team previews.
Bold Statement
The Cardinals’ rotation won’t have any starters win a dozen games.
The first argument is that the offense isn’t a strength, and losing Albert Pujols to surgery is a strong possibility.
But then take a look at the starting rotation and tell me which names are a decent bet to be healthy most of the season and post an ERA better than average:
Adam Wainwright — This is probably the Cards’ best bet, and he only won 14 games last year with a 3.70 ERA in 200 innings.
Braden Looper — He’s more valuable as a starter than reliever, but still isn’t that good.
Anthony Reyes — I’m a huge Reyes fan, but he’ll have to live up to his potential in order to even start a dozen games again.
Todd Wellemeyer — Who? Exactly.
Chris Carpenter — Mr. Tommy John will miss a significant chunk of the season and will likely take time to get back into ace form.
Matt Clement — Another guy making a comeback from injury who won’t be ready at the start of the season.
Mark Mulder — Yet a third guy making a comeback from injury who won’t be ready at the start of the season.
Joel Pineiro — He looked good in eleven games last year, but his track record is nowhere near as pretty.
I realize that while the likelihood of each individual pitcher winning a dozen games is under 50%, the odds of everyone doing it is much smaller. But if there’s a team capable of cobbling together a staff of made up of 8-10 pitchers throwing 100 innings each at a 4.75 ERA, this is it.
Best Chance For Hardware
If you’re not a Cardinals fan and haven’t heard of Colby Rasmus, do a little research. He’s a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. He’s only 21 years old, hits for power, takes a walk, and has some wheels. His minor league line is .285/.371/.510 in 1200 ABs and he bettered that last year in AA. Throw in the scouting report of good skills in center field, and you’ve got a great chance for stardom. There’s a small chance St. Louis doesn’t have him start the season in the majors, though.
Over/Under 77 Wins
Under, although I assume this line was set before the extent of Albert Pujols’ injury was known by all. I just don’t see enough bright spots to illuminate all the darkness and mediocrity. That being said, there is the possibility of this team staying in contention if everything falls right. Pujols and the injury-riddled rotation could become healthy. Colby Rasmus could be everything he’s cracked up to be. Troy Glaus could smack 40 homeruns and be joined by Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan in the 30 homerun club. But I wouldn’t bet on any of that.
Homerun Breakout
It wouldn’t be new territory, but Troy Glaus has a reasonable chance to return to 40 homeruns if he stays healthy and doesn’t piss off Tony Larussa. NL pitching isn’t nearly as talented as over in the AL, although Busch Stadium isn’t as homer-friendly as the Rogers Centre, either.
Homerun Collapse
I like his story as much as anyone, but Ankiel’s minor-league numbers don’t support a .285 AVG and his batted ball charts don’t support his 2008 40-homerun pace. One, he’s not an extreme flyball hitter, putting more balls in play on the ground than in the air. Two, a full 20% of his flyballs left the park last year, well above the league-average. Given his 2:1 ratio of homers to doubles, I see his homerun total more in the 20-range, not the 30+ total that many people think he can put up based on a quarter of a major-league season. And three, if he does start off the season on a tear, pitchers will throw more balls out of the strike zone, taking advantage of his below-average walk-rate. That will help his overall value, but not his homerun total. I’ll be rooting for him, though.
Sky: So, what will be the Cardinals main storyline of 2008?
Erik: This will be the worst season ever under Tony La Russa’s watch as the Cardinals manager.
Daniel: LaRussa’s worst year was a 73-89 1997. (Hard to believe the Cardinals challenged Houston that year until late July.) I’ll go on record and say this year’s team is not that bad. I’d expect more like last year’s 78 wins, with a chance at 81.
Dan: The major Cardinals storyline of 2008? It’s either going to be “Cardinal Youngsters Perk Up Disappointing Season” or “Thousands of Cardinals Fans Leap from Metropolitan Square.” Cardinal fan happiness is, right now, inextricably linked to what Colby Rasmus does when he hits the majors.
Daniel: What do Cardinal fans know that the media doesn’t? Well, thanks to people like Erik, I think Cardinal fans know that the minor league system is not a bereft as some would make it out to be. We know that Colby Rasmus is going to be fun to watch. We know that Pujols has played in pain just about every season. And we know that there’s no place better to spend a summer afternoon than watching the Cardinals.
Erik: The mainstream media has started to picked up on it weeks after we’ve all known it- Albert Pujols will need Tommy John surgery, and possibly some time this season. I think is the “why” to your first question. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be in contention, and should they perform they way the projections like PECOTA expect them to, Pujols could succumb sooner then later. The medical team says they are more then OK with Albert playing, but this is the same group of quacks that green lighted signing Matt Clement, fed us a lines of crap about Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter’s health, and many players such as Scott Rolen have sought treatment elsewhere. I could get into litany of stupidity we’ve experienced, I’ll spare you from that. They already look to be mediocre at full health and they look much worse without the Big Guy.
Rich: If Pujols goes down, this team is going to compete with the Royals for the worst MLB team in Missouri. They might just do it with Prince Albert in the lineup.
Erik: As far as “feel good stuff”, the team is getting younger and prospects like Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez and Rule 5 pick Brian Barton could all make substantial contributions sometime in the season.
Sky: When I think of young-ish Cardinals, I think of Chris Duncan, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Which one of those guys will have the better career? I’m thinking Ankiel’s 2007 homerun barrage will go down in history next to Shane Spencer’s.
Daniel: That’s Erik’s area of expertise, but from a layman, the first question is easily Rasmus. Ankiel will be better than Spencer, but he’s not going to have the longevity and all-around career that Rasmus is. For those coming up, I’d say Chris Perez and Jamie Garcia.
Erik: I think Ankiel’s power is very real, I’m not ready to put him in the Shane Spencer category, though I think he’ll probably get exposed at some point. At 28, I’m not sure he’s young-ish, more newish to hitting, and considering that he is, what he did last year hitting 43 bombs between AAA/MLB is nuts. I think he’s capable of hitting 30-35 homers per year, but on the negative he’ll also post OBP’s in the .290 range. But Rasmus is the best prospect to come up through the system in what seems like ages. He can run, field, hit for power and draw walks. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial All Star.
Dan: Rasmus will definitely have the best career; he’s an all-world prospect. As for Ankiel, the home runs are real–I think he’s going to have a few years where he’s Jeff Francoeur with more range and the same game-changing arm, which is plenty valuable when you’re getting it cheaply.
Nick: OK, so if the team needs to focus on 2010, what chips do they have to parlay into major league ready prospects? Certainly no pitching with so many starters on the shelf. Adam Kennedy? I just don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon.
Daniel: I don’t know that the future is all that far away for the current team. They need middle infield upgrade, obviously, but with a return to health of Carpenter and the signing of a good pitcher in free agency next off-season, they could be right back into contention. I don’t think this is a total “trade off everyone and rebuild” type of situation.
However, the most tradeable option would be Chris Duncan, in my opinion. His bat is helpful, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think he necessarily has a lot of shelf life. At the same time, he’s attractive to a lot of teams because of his price as well as the pop.
Daniel: I think the story of ‘08 is going to the pitching. The question is whether it’ll be a fairy tale or, as expected, a horror story. I’ve written on my blog often that I think the pitching this year will compare favorably to last season’s. While that’s like saying I’m faster than Yadier Molina, it still is an important point. If the pitching keeps the team in games, there should be enough offensive weapons plus a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention. I’m not saying they are going to head into September with a three-game lead or anything, but it won’t be a dismal, completely lost season.
Rich: A team should never count on “a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention.” The Cubs employed that philosophy for years, and they consistently finished 4th or worse in the Division.
Daniel: It’s all about health. If Clement, Mulder and later Carpenter come back and pitch like reasonable facsimiles of themselves, the Cardinals have a pretty strong rotation, at least from 1-5. If these things don’t happen, and Wellemeyer or Thompson have to make numerous starts, then the prospects don’t look nearly as bright and the Rasmus Watch starts very early.
Sky: My problem with the rotation is that while there’s the potential for each starter to be very good, the median expectation falls well below the hype. Which one of Mulder, Clement, Pineiro, or Reyes is most likely to put together 160 IP at a sub 4.00 ERA? Mulder’s done it once in four years, Clement’s at once in five years, Reyes has never come close, and Pineiro’s two seasons were 2002 and 2003. Not that a shot-in-the-dark staff is a bad idea on a team with low expectations.
Daniel: I know that’s somewhat of a rhetorical question, but if I had to pick one, I’d say Reyes, because there is still potential there if it all clicks. There has been a lot of positive press on him this spring (which, granted, is one of the hallmarks of this time of year) and he’s shown flashes of what he can be. Whether it will all come together, I’m not sure, but I’m cautiously optimistic that he takes a step forward this year.
The staff ERA was 4.65 last year, and that was with a fairly strong showing by most of the bullpen. I gotta think that not having people like Kip Wells and Mike Maroth on the staff has to count for something.
Dan: As for everybody else, the Cardinals’ main need is replacing the Izturis-wide holes with adequate players, the kind of team-wide averageness that lets you go after a big free agent or make a risky trade like they’ve done in years past. If, by 2009, Jaime Garcia and one or two others among the Cardinals’ glut of average starter prospects can shore up the rotation such that it isn’t reliant on trash-heap pickups every year, it would be a great start.
The Cardinals are, right now, going into the season counting on the worst keystone combo in recent memory. Last year Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy combined for 29 extra base hits, and they’re both hemmorhaging range afield. We’re talking all-time bad. It’d be like a team going into the season counting on, say, Matt Clement and Todd Wellemeyer to fill spots in the rotation.
Erik: I’ll end with a few more comments on the farm system. Chris Perez is a flame-throwing college closer who’s moved up the ranks quickly. His slider is devastating, but he has troubles with walks. I’m hoping for Mitch Williams and praying he’s not Joey Devine. Clayton Mortensen, Jaime Garcia and Adam Ottavino we all hope become #3 type rotation options. Mortensen keeps the ball on the ground with extreme prejudice, Garcia, a lefty, is the a draft surprise with a big hook and is also an extreme ground-baller. Ottavino throws 93-95, even deep into his pitch counts and a decent slider and change.
There are also some others who are kind of under the radar and could be up by 2010: 2B/SS Jose Martinez, 3B Allen Craig and RHP Jess Todd. And for your readers who like fantasy baseball out there, here’s a guy that they may wanna scoop up at the back of the draft-RHP Kyle McClellan.
Sky: Alright, that should wrap things up — unless someone wants to mention Colby Rasmus’ name one more time. No? Ok, thanks again to Dan, Erik, and Daniel.
Day Six - This season is the first since 1992 that San Francisco fans won’t be watching Barry Bonds in left field. Given that he hit 28 homeruns in 2007 and the team also lost Pedro Feliz’s 20 homeruns to free agency, the Giants may not come close to last year’s low total of 131. Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Bold Statement
The Giants will win the fewest games in all of major league baseball.
I’m sure every Giants fan will stop reading right about now, but Brian Sabean simply hasn’t done much in his tenure as Giants GM other than make sure Barry Bonds stuck around. And Bonds, understandably, won’t be back in 2008.
Here’s a chart comparing the Giants’ actual win totals since Sabean took over in 1997 with the theoretical win totals if Bonds’ offense was replaced with a league-average player:
Two seasons stick out as impressive even without Bonds — 2000 and 2003. 1997 through 1999 are solid, but you’ve got to wonder how much of that talent was left over from the previous regime. The past four seasons are just awful and show an ugly trend. Looking at the 40-man roster, is there anybody to be excited about other than Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum? Sabean has yet to learn that old players tend to get worse, not better.
Over/Under 72 Wins
Obviously I’m taking the under. The starting rotation is perhaps above-average, but I laugh every time Barry Zito’s listed as the number one starter. I’ll admit I don’t know enough about the crop of young players moving up through the minors, but there’s a reason these prospects aren’t getting a lot of hype.
Homerun Breakout
Dan Ortmeier’s the only prospect with decent power and a starting job. He’s been a 15-homerun guy in the minors, but will already be 27 years old in 2008. Nate Shierholtz has similar power potential and is a few years younger, but doesn’t have an outfield spot open for him. Kevin Frandsen, slated to start at third base, has zero power. Given that most of the other position players are over the hill (Winn, Roberts, Molina, Durham, Aurilia), those are really the only options.
Homerun Collapse
While he’s generally underrated thanks to his good glove in center, Aaron Rowand’s moving from one of the best parks for homeruns to one of the worst. AT&T is actually fairly neutral for producing runs overall, but absolutely kills the long ball. Given that Rowand’s offensive performance in 2007 was a step above his previous levels, a mere dozen homeruns might be in the cards in 2008.
Best Chance For Hardware
It’s tough to win a Cy Young without a high win total, but Tim Lincecum could very well be the most valuable pitcher in the NL this year. I know he has to compete with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb, but he’s only 24, wasn’t overworked last season, and showed skills that would be expected to produce a 3.57 ERA. If he can lower his walk-rate, Giants fans will have a new favorite player.
Giants Round Table
Nick, Rich, and I are joined by Rob Merk from Bugs & Cranks.
Sky: What are the storylines for the Giants this year?
Rob: China Basin looks pretty bleak this year. The Giants have a handful of infielders and outfielders, a dozen or so pitchers, a couple of catchers… and Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum!!! Giants fans say there are Cy Young awards in the futures of these two studs, and they will have to pitch like it for the Giants to have a shot in hell at the playoffs.
Nick: So would you say that starting pitching is a strong point for the Giants and is there enough depth to parlay one starter into an everyday player to fill one of the infield holes?
Rob: The Giants’ pitching isn’t out of this world, but it has to be in the top five in the National League. Noah Lowry has been rumored to be on the table for White Sox’s Joe Crede, and that might not be such a bad trade. Even though Lowry is a fan favorite, when it comes down to it he pitches every fifth day, while Crede could play every day.
Sky: I’m not so much in favor of trading a pitcher for a hitter, but trading a pitcher with a 1:1 K:BB ratio for a decent hitter with an excellent glove. What about the story that isn’t getting the pub it should?
Rob: One potential bright spot who hasn’t gotten a whole lot of coverage so far is Brian Wilson. He had only six saves in 2007, but that was only because the Giants won about six games. If he turns out to be the opposite of Matt Herges, It will take a lot of pressure off of the team.
Nick: OK, I have to ask…does Barry going away change something fundamental about this team? I realize I am from the midwest, so I don’t see or hear everything that goes on with the Giants, but I always thought it looked like the Giants were run/built for Barry. So does the team concept make a return in his abscence? Please note, I am focused on the baseball part of the equation, not all of the off the field garbage.
Rob: I wouldn’t say the giants were ever built for Barry– maybe around him is better. That worked while they were good, but its been a while since that was the case. Everyone knows the horror stories: a row of his own lockers, an easy chair, players tiptoeing around him during nap time. So yes, there is a definite hope among fans that team ball will return.
Its an interesting point to bring up, though. Do people outside the Bay Area not see the Giants beyond Barry Bonds? On a less theoretical note, what about Dan Ortmeier at first base?
Rich: You got it. Thank you ESPN. I would say that most casual baseball fans have no idea who else has played for the Giants the past few years. Some might know about the young pitchers.
With the Giants’ poor record of late, coupled with the Home Run Record chase and the BALCO circus, the only thing ESPN ever reported on from the Bay was Barry Bonds. Add to the fact that the Giants were an old ballclub that couldn’t hit and there was nothing to really speak of.
Rob: Well at least those East Coast loving announcers at ESPN will get fed up with Barry and the Giants this year. Reporting on a person who isn’t there doesn’t make for many stories. His absence will mean the Giants just won’t get covered…unless they turn out to be a whirling dervish of a young ball club with 100 wins (just go with me here). Or change their name to “Boston Red Sox.” I foresee a year of baby steps, which will mean little notice from the rest of the country, but interest from fans hungry for a team with heart.
Sky: You know, to a certain extent, Barry Bonds was the only name worth covering and there were about five angles to choose from. What other players have been above average the past few years and what bright spots will there be in 2008 besides Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum? Anyone else above average?
Rob: Above average is a tough one. Randy Winn, Bengie Molina, and Omar Vizquel are probably the only players who really accomplished anything who will be around in 2008. Aaron Rowand spent last year with Philidelphia, but he brings fairly impressive numbers with him. Whether he can hold them up at SBC Park is another matter, but at least he is a somewhat proven, legitimate major league hitter.
Sky: I’ll take that as a no. Best of luck to all the Giants fans in 2008. If you know one, be nice.
Forgive me for only posting the Dodgers round table right now. I’ve been on the road interviewing for teaching jobs and writing thank-you letters is temporarily taking the place of writing baseball previews. I will return to the proper set of priorities shortly. Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Dodgers Round Table
Nick and I are joined by Erin Wilson from Beantown West, Jon Weisman from Dodger Thoughts, and Steve Hulkower from Bugs & Cranks. The following thoughts have been heavily edited (our guest bloggers almost filled up my Gmail storage quota and Nick has a dirty electronic mouth.)
Sky: So what are the storylines for the Dodgers in 2008?
Erin: The Dodgers are set for most positions heading into this season, but there are a couple of interesting situations developing in spring training.
Garciaparra completely sucked last year. He claims that he knows what was wrong, and it will be fixed this year. My love for Nomar makes me think he will do better this year. That’s not exactly a bold statement given his 7 HR, 59 RBI and OPS+ 78 (every time I see that number, I cringe, especially since it’s only three points better than Juan Pierre, for the love of god).
I want to believe that Garciaparra will put up “Comeback Player of the Year” kind of numbers, but it’s hard to imagine. Andy LaRoche is waiting in the wings, and many believe the job should be his. I’ve advocated that in the past, but as the season approaches, I think I’m leading more toward letting Nomar start, but giving him a very short leash.
Jon: I’m not clear on what the case is for Garciaparra other than sentimental. He might have a bounce left in him, but slight improvement isn’t enough. LaRoche is more likely to have a better on-base percentage, slugging percentage and defense than Garciaparra. If the Dodgers are gonna operate on a premise of hope, why not throw it the way of the guy with a better chance to succeed.
Nick: I am not sure what the upside of keeping Nomar in the starting lineup. He clearly is a shell of his former self and even if he were to rebound a bit, couldn’t you get 15 HR and respectable OPS+ out of LaRoche? I say stick a fork in Nomar his is done. Or would you rather see, the Dodgers trade for Inge or Crede?
Erin: I hope the Dodgers don’t trade for Crede or Inge. Let’s say the team gives LaRoche a chance at third. Who knows what the Dodgers would have to give up to get one of those guys. I don’t know if we have any expendable parts right now.
Steve: Inge is defensively superior to LaRoche, but his price tag is too high and his offense too weak. Crede isn’t as good defensively as Inge and his offense is paltry. At best he has an average EQA which is something that LaRoche should be able to easily match if he’s allowed to play a full season.
Jon: There is simply no reason for the Dodgers to be pursuing Inge or Crede, and I think they realize that. Most of the time the Dodgers make a move, it’s not one that has been rumored.
Erin: Left field is another issue. With Andruw Jones signing, the Dodgers found themselves with a surplus of outfielders, most of which are pretty damn good. Jones will be starting in center, which means Torre must find a new home for Juan Pierre. Unfortunately, that new home is not on the bench or in another city. Pierre will start in left field and make our lives miserable, and Ethier might not even be a Dodger by the time the trade deadline rolls around. When Ethier is an All- Star somewhere else, maybe Colletti will be sorry.
Nick: As far as the outfield goes, I heard the rumblings that Jones is quite puffy coming into camp. Any concern that last year with the Braves wasn’t a one year anomaly?
Steve: Jones doesn’t worry me. I’d like to see him earn his paycheck but if last season turns out to be the new norm, his 26 home runs are still likely to lead the team and his defensive ability is a major upgrade. I’ve learned to shy away from giving weight to statistical anomalies. If we charted Jones’ career, the data from 2007 would appear as an outlier that would get tossed out. Players usually revert back to the norm.
Erin: I’m not worried about Andruw Jones either. I’d like to see him get back to his numbers from prior to last season, but as Steve said, 26 home runs would have led the team last year, and it will probably lead the team this year.
Steve: Martin had a great ‘07 but I don’t expect much improvement and wouldn’t be surprised to see him level out. The stolen bases are great, but as a catcher we can’t expect too many of them.
Erin: I agree about Russell Martin. I don’t know if there can be improvement, unless the extra days off that Torre is promising help Martin feel better than he did in the second half last season. Even without improvement, though, if he puts up numbers like he did last year, I’ll definitely take it.
Sky: I’m always amazed at how valuable even league-average production from a catcher is. He’s probably overhyped thanks to the fantasy stats, but Martin is a big plus for the Dodgers. What about the pitching?
Erin: Despite glowing reports on the rotation, I’m not feeling all that confident. Penny will no doubt be as strong as he was last year. Lowe has me a little concerned because of his age and second half performance. Kuroda is a big question mark. Until I see this guy get a few games under his belt, it’s hard for me to believe he’s going to be able to handle anything about American baseball.
Jon: I can’t say I don’t have doubts about Penny maintaining his level - not with the decline in his strikeout rate. It’s possible he’s learned to pitch to contact, as they say, but not definite. I agree Kuroda is something of a wait-and-see, but I think Erin is a little too pessimistic.
Erin: If I seem pessimistic about the season, that’s because I am. I can’t help it. Last season’s fade left a sour taste in my mouth, and I didn’t see enough changes in the off-season to make me feel that this year will be different. Seriously, though, do you see this team winning the west, or even the wild card?
Steve: I’ve become a firm believer in the every other year theory. I think the last 4 years have seen a playoff caliber team here in Los Angeles (hold the Angels jokes), but two of those years were destroyed by injuries. If the Dodgers stay healthy, which the current pace says they will, I’m very optimistic about their chances in the West this season. the key to the Dodgers’ season is the health of Rafael Furcal.
Sky: For this team to beat out all three of the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres, all three of Laroche, Ethier, and Kemp need to start and perform up to their potential.
Jon: It’s going to be a tough division. Any of four teams has a claim to being the favorite. That’s gonna make it a tense race from the start - the season has an every-game-counts feel.
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.