On day four we’ve got our first team that finished with a winning record in 2007 and our first division winner — the Los Angeles Angels. (Yes, I’ve given in to the new name. I might as well enjoy some stability before they change it again.) Don’t forget to check out Nick the Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Over/Under 92 Wins
I’m going with the under, for two reasons. One, the Angels aren’t any better than that (I know that sounds dumb, but they only had 90 Pythagorean wins in 2007) and two, it seems like there are a lot of underrated, improving teams in the AL.
That being said, I also don’t think this team will win fewer than 88 games, thanks to their impressive organizational depth. As Sean points out in the round table, the Angels have too many players deserving of significant playing time. Sure, it would hurt to lose Vlad, Hunter, or Lackey for the season, but their replacement would likely be league-average. That’s a major difference between LA and the other, sub-.500 teams I’ve written about so far. The Royals, Twins, and Nationals just don’t have quality players to plug into the lineup when needed.
Bold Statement
The Angels will give up the most runs per game since 2000.
What that really means is that they’ll allow at least 4.6 runs per game, “bettering” the 2003 team. (The 2000 staff appears to have been really bad, allowing 5.36 runs per game, but teams averaged 5.3 runs per game that year.) I realize last year’s rotation had two studs in John Lackey (3.01 ERA) and Kelvim Escobar (3.40 ERA). And I know the team has jettisoned Bartolo Colon’s 6.34 ERA in 99.3 IP and traded for master of the win, John Garland. But I think the whole rotation is overrated:
John Lackey stranded 76% of his baserunners last year and had a 3.66 FIP.
John Garland might have won 18 games twice in the past three years, but his xFIP over that time period is about 4.70 and he hasn’t struck out more than five players per nine innings.
Kelvim Escobar (in addition to being injured) gave up homeruns at a rate of six per 100 flyballs in 2007, which is 3-4 fewer than his average as an Angels starter.
Ervin Santana’s 5.78 ERA last year is just as representative of his three-year skillset as his 4.28 ERA in 2006.
People are still hung up on Jered Weaver’s 2.56 ERA as a rookie, when he somehow managed to strand 86% of baserunners. His expected ERAs in both major league seasons have been similar, north of 4.50.
Just to prevent misinterpretation, this isn’t a bad rotation, just overrated and potentially disappointing.
Vlad has two things working against him. He’s getting older and walking more. Age will sap his power in addition to increasing the chance of injury, while taking walks decreases his opportunities to smack the ball over the fence.
Best Chance For Hardware
While I’d like to give some props to Howie Kendrick or Casey Kotchman for their plus bats and very good defensive skills, neither is quite superstar material, Vlad for MVP is the obvious pick. I think the Mariners can stay close enough to the Angels to make his contribution critical, and maybe he can combine last year’s walk-rate with one more big power season. The stolen bases are a thing of the past, though — Sorry fantasy leaguers. (Question for future reference — does the Rolaids Relief Award come with anything metallic or solid?)
Sky: The Angels are the largest favorite of any of the six divisions. Is 2008 in the bag or could they miss the playoffs?
Sean: The Angels are huge favorites, but nothing is ever guaranteed. If Vlad, Lackey, and Escobar all went down with injuries, and Bedard and King Felix compete neck and neck for the Cy Young, the Mariners could squeak by the Angels.
Nick: I am inclined to agree with Sean that nothing is really guaranteed for the Angels. There is a significant threat from the Mariners and given how bad the Rangers and A’s will be this year, it is imperative that the team beat up quite regularly on those two cellar dwellers.
Rev: Actually, I am not shitting my pants over Queen Felix. 2008 is not in the bag, though. Scioscia likes to stick with his guys and every day Gary Matthews is in the lineup is a day spent possibly spinning our wheels.
Sky: Looking back after the season, what will be the biggest Angels storyline of 2008?
Rev: Brandon Wood. You read it here first even though every self-appointed analyst who has now given up on him will claim they called it.
Sean: Shortstop. If Aybar hits .250 with a .275 OBA and 40 errors, but the Angels stubbornly refuse to take him out of the lineup, he could single-handedly jeopardize the season. I say, Izturis is almost a sure thing to be a solid player if not one with upside, and Wood is a gamble but with huge upside.
Sky: What do Angel fans know about the team that the mainstream media should pay more attention to?
Sean: The Angels have a lot more players who deserve a starting job than there are lineup spots. Vlad, Anderson, Matthews Jr., Hunter, Rivera, Willits, and Morales all deserve playing time, but three of them are going to be on the bench any given day. Mike Scioiscia has his work cut out for him making sure that everyone is happy, and egos and personalities are kept under control.
Sky: Seriously Sean? You created the phenomenal CHONE projection system and TotalZone historical fielding ratings, but now think the Angels 2008 season comes down to Scioiscia keeping the veterans happy?
Sean: I did not say that the 2008 season comes down to keeping the veterans happy. I just said that it could be a challenge for Scioscia because they have so many good players at the OF/DH spots.
Rich: Is there any chance that one of those OF/DH’s isn’t with the Angels after July 31st?
Nick: I think they deal from strength to get more pitching.
Rich: By the way, how high is the center field fence in Anaheim? Just tall enough for Torii to make HR-saving catches?
Rev: Hunter should look great on the highlight reels with that Anaheim enter field fence. My season seats are 6 rows behind Torii — look for the crackhead in the biker jacket, folks.
Sky: I’m a big fan of both Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman, two players who can get on base and field their positions quite well. Which one do people think will end up having the better career?
Sean: Tough call. I love both of these guys, and hope they have a decade each as key players on the Angels. Kotchman is really slow, and has old player skills, so I’ll pick him to peak early and fade sooner, and Kendrick to go on to have a longer and more productive career.
Nick: I see Kendrick as the easy pick here. If Kotchman was such a good talent, the Angels would have flirted with Konerko. I am really interested in how Jon Garland, or as we call him here on the Southside, Judy Garland, does in the Big A. It bodes well that he gets to play inferior talent in the Rangers and A’s quite often this year because he made his living betting up on the Royals and the Tigers (pre-2006) while he struggle against more quality opponents.
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the three blogger round tables we’ve done so far (the Angels preview will be up later today) and I’d really like to make sure we have enough participants in order not to skip another team (like the Nationals yesterday). So, if you can contribute some thoughts on your favorite team on any of these three levels and don’t mind having someone edit/delete your words, send me an email.
Analysis that even a hardcore fan might learn something from.
Information that fans of other teams might not yet know.
Upscale fart jokes.
Here’s the preview schedule:
Date Team 2007 HRs
3/1/2008 KCR 102
3/2/2008 MIN 118
3/3/2008 WAS 123
3/4/2008 LAA 123
3/5/2008 LAN 129
3/6/2008 SFG 131
3/7/2008 STL 141
3/8/2008 BAL 142
3/9/2008 PIT 148
3/10/2008 CHN 151
3/11/2008 SEA 153
3/12/2008 TOR 165
3/13/2008 BOS 166
3/14/2008 HOU 167
3/15/2008 ARI 171
3/16/2008 COL 171
3/17/2008 SDP 171
3/18/2008 OAK 171
3/19/2008 ATL 176
3/20/2008 DET 177
3/21/2008 NYN 177
3/22/2008 CLE 178
3/23/2008 TEX 179
3/24/2008 TBA 187
3/25/2008 CHA 190
3/26/2008 FLO 201
3/27/2008 NYA 201
3/28/2008 CIN 204
3/29/2008 PHI 213
3/30/2008 MIL 231
Welcome to day three of thirty and say hello to the Washington Nationals. Manny Acta’s team actually tied with the Angels with 123 homeruns in 2007, but we thought it would be fun to run the two Los Angeles previews back to back. I know, we’re crazy. Don’t forget to check out Nick the Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Bold Statement
The Nationals will have three Gold Glove winners, but once again field a team that’s league-average overall.
Who are my winners?
- Nick Johnson, who will take over for a floundering and/or injured Dmitri Young.
- Ryan Zimmerman, who has the influence of 2006 and 2007 working for him.
- And Austin Kearns, who has a fantastic arm and a center fielder’s range in right field.
Shortstop will be much improved by bumping Felipe Lopez off the field, even if Christian Guzman struggles to play league-average defense.
But left field, center field, and catcher figure to be minuses, some bigger than others. Wily Mo Pena can mash at the plate (more on him below), but catching the ball is not his strong suit. With limited playing time over the past four years, UZR puts him at about -40 runs over the course of a season. Even half that number is awful, especially considering he’s replacing Ryan Church, who was a plus defender.
In center, Lastings Milledge is more of mediocre corner outfielder — I’d rather see Kearns try his hand out there instead.
And while Paul LoDuca might be a man among boys in the leadership department (does HGH improve intangibles?) and is slightly above-average behind the plate, he’s about a six run step down from Brian Schneider. Johnny Estrada? There’s a reason he’s labeled an offensive catcher (currently without the offense).
Lastly, even though Nick Johnson’s fielding reputation is very good, UZR has him as only two runs above average per 150 games, and he’s slightly below average at reigning in balls thrown his way.
Over/Under 71.5 Wins
The Nationals won 73 games in 2007, but their run differential indicates they had 70-win talent. Brilliant line, Vegas. I’m going to take the under, partly because the number of holes on the field (shortstop, second base, catcher) outweighs the number of stars (zero).
But then there’s also the pitching staff. In 2007, ten pitchers started games for Washington, seven of them at least ten games each. John Patterson’s supposedly the ace, but he’s had only one season with more than 100 IP. Here are the K/BB ratios and xFIPs from 2007 for the projected rotation:
Name xFIP K/BB
Shawn Hill 4.03 2.6
Jason Bergmann 5.01 2.1
Tim Redding 5.28 1.3
Matt Chico 5.75 1.3
Joel Hanrahan 5.79 1.1
John Lannan 5.97 0.5
John Patterson 6.63 0.7
Shawn Hill is a good pitcher, but the rest of the rotation is filled with fifth starters and long relievers. At least many of them are young enough to significantly improve. I have nothing to say about the bullpen except that they are completely and utterly average.
2008 will be a season of figuring out which players will be around for the next playoff run and which players should find a new career. If you’re a fan of a 70-win team, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as there’s bound to be a number of bright spots to focus on.
Homerun Breakout
Wily Mo Pena. This guy finally has a full time job and an organization who really believes in him. In part time duty over his career, he’s hit homeruns at a rate of 32 per 600 ABs, including 26 in 2004. The new stadium is supposedly much more hitter-friendly than RFK, where Pena belted 8 homers in a quarter of a season last year. Sure, we’re talking small sample sizes, but if there’s a skill Pena has always had, it’s power.
Homerun Collapse
Dmitri Young. Sure, he hit a measly 13 homeruns last year, but only Austin Kearns and Ryan Zimmerman hit more and I don’t see either of them taking a step back. Young’s just not as good as his 2007 line of .320/.378/.491. Based on his plate discipline and batted ball distribution, he deserved to have an OPS of .790 instead of .870. CHONE projects .274/.337/.441 in 2008. I’m not so much expecting his power to completely disappear as anticipating Nick Johnson to get his job back. Johnson’s a much better fielder, is seven years younger, and gets on base almost 40% of the time. Young can still counsel Elijah Dukes from the bench.
Best Chance For Hardware
I already mentioned Zimmerman and Kearns winning Gold Gloves, but I think I’ll go with Nick Johnson as Comeback Player of the Year (in addition to a potentially undeserved Gold Glove). This category is tough for the teams at the bottom of the league.
Nationals Round Table
There’s no round table today. I’m going to interpret lack of participation by Nationals bloggers as lack of faith in the 2008 team. Or maybe they just have more of a life than I do. If you need more to read, you can take a tour of Washington’s new stadium or re-read the Royals and Twins round tables from over the weekend.
Day 2 of the 30 in 30 project brings out the Minnesota Twins, who hit a measly 118 homeruns last year. I really enjoy following this organization, as they do a great job of churning out young talent and competing with a payroll that’s consistently in the bottom half of the league. But then they go and do something dumb like keep Jason Bartlett in the minors for an extra year and a half and I’m happy I’m not a real fan. Don’t forget to check out Nick The Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Bold Statement
The Twins’ starting rotation, even without Johan Santana and Matt Garza, will post a lower ERA than the 4.33 of 2007.
Francisco Liriano is already 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery and a legitimate Cy Young candidate. I expect him to start relatively slowly and be on a conservative pitch count, but just picture his 2006 debut over the course of a full season. That’s enough to shut most people up about losing Santana.
Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker all have the talent to be #2 pitchers and have at least part of a major league season under their belts. Livan Hernandez is actually a positive at the end of the rotation. While his 2007 ERA was 4.83, it was under 4.00 for the three previous seasons.
But what might help the most is addition by subtraction. Gone are Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, who combined for 94 innings at over a 6.00 ERA last year.
Fun Fact
Carlos Silva led Johan Santana in Win Probability Added last year, +1.84 wins to +1.80 wins.
Over/Under 73.5 Wins
Over, but just barely. Trading Johan Santana and letting Torri Hunter walk were the right moves, but will make 2008 a de facto rebuilding year. As I mentioned above, the rotation could be excellent, and will at least be a strength. The bullpen should also continue to shine. Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier are all top-notch relievers, and Glen Perkins can handle many roles — multi-inning reliever, LOOGY, or spot starter. I just wonder how long Nathan will be around since it’s in the Twins best interest not to pay him free agent money and every contending team will be in search of bullpen help.
The position players are what keep this team below .500. While the offense has three big names in Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer, tell me which of these other names scare you — Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Adam Everett, Carlos Gomez, Mike Lamb, and Delmon Young? My answer is none.
On top of that, I count only two fielders who are above-average at their positions — Joe Mauer and Adam Everett. Now, Everett should probably count as three studs, but Morneau, Harris, and Lamb project to be -14 runs over a full season, cutting the value of Everett’s +31 projection in half. In the outfield, the most optimistic statement is that both corner outfielders have fantastic arms.
Homerun Breakout
I’m going to play the forgotten-prospect card and go with Jason Kubel. He’s got the DH job all to himself, managed 13 homers in 2/3 of a season in 2007, is entering his age 26 season, and is bound to turn more of his 31 doubles into round-trippers. He may be the lone offensive overachiever in 2008.
Homerun Collapse
My pick only had 13 homeruns in 2007, but I don’t see number increasing in 2008. Sure, Delmon Young gets a second chance with the Twins, but he showed he’s not ready for the big leagues last year. While that’s perfectly fine for a 21 year old, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ron Gardenhire sit him more often (Young played in every game in last year) or even ask GM Bill Smith to give him more seasoning in AAA Rochester considering his struggles and his attitude. Even a reasonable step forward offensively can’t counter-balance losing perhaps 100 PAs.
Best Chance For Hardware
I’m officially kicking off the Liriano for Cy Young campaign… NOW.
Adam Everett should be the best fielding shortstop in the AL, but I can’t predict Gold Gloves for two different shortstops in two days.
Twins Round Table
Today Nick and I are joined by John Bonnes from Twins Geek.
Sky: Right now the trade of Johan Santana is the dominant Twins storyline. What will the big story at the end of the season be?
Nick: To me that’s easy, it will be the same storyline all year — the Twins will really, really, really miss Carlos Silva… I mean Johan Santana. Pitchers like him come along so rarely that the Twins should have done anything to keep him.
John: What about how bright the future looks for 2009? Maybe it’s the first non-freezing day in a week talking, or maybe listening to spring training games again has altered my chemical balance, but how can you not be excited about some of the potential on this team?
I’m not terribly optimistic about the center field situation before the All-Star break, but I’m damn excited to see what it looks like in September. Or whether Delmon Young can give us a glimpse of a future Vlad. Or if Jason Kubel’s second-half plate discipline can vault him back into the middle of the order. Or even if Alexi Casilla can rediscover the good graces that made him the talk of spring training last year.
And that’s not the half of the team that has the most potential. Was Scott Baker for real those last two months? Can Boof Bonser, who led the International League in strikeouts a couple years back, become a #2 guy? Can Kevin Slowey? And, of course, will Francisco Liriano be able to dominant AND stay healthy?
Nick: I really believe that Liriano is going to struggle this year. He may never regain the dominance he once had (see Kerry Wood).
Sky: Jeez, John, I think you just converted me into a Twins fan. Changing gears, is Ron Gardenhire smart enough to play Adam Everett every day?
John: Does Kyle Lohse give up big innings? If anything, Twins fans should worry that the team will sign Everett to a three-year deal shortly after Dick Bremer suffers his fourth pulmonary embolism over one of his defensive plays. Giving Gardenhire a player like Everett is like giving a desperate new father of a colic-stricken kid a Teletubbies video. There is just no way it doesn’t end up being overused.
Nick: Smart enough to play Adam Everett everyday? Who else are the going to play there, Nick Punto? Not many choices in the infield for this team.
John: For all the love thrown Punto’s way, he won’t get a starting job unless someone is hurt. He’ll still likely end up with 300+ at-bats, mind you, but that’s because there just doesn’t seem to be another competent infielder that can make the roster, especially if they carry 12 pitchers.
Sky: You know it’s a rebuilding year when Nick Punto can sniff the field. Given that assumption, where are position players on the next playoff team going to come from? I see Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer locked up through 2011, and potentially bright futures for Gomez, Young, and Kubel. (Actually, that’s a better start than I thought.) But is the farm system prepared to fill the gaping holes at second, short, and third? And can management keep the lights-out no-name bullpen freshly stocked?
John: Sky, I just don’t see the holes. You don’t need an all-star at every position. If Lamb can continue to mash righties and Harris can continue to be passable, they really only need Casilla to take over at shortstop (and I think Twins Territory is collectively selling him short.)
Meanwhile, the Twins could had some incredible speed at the top of the lineup with Gomez or Casilla. They could have an ideal guy hitting behind them in Mauer. Delmon Young can fill the hole between Mauer and Morneau. And you still have Kubel and Cuddyer backing them up. That’s a plenty solid first six spots in the lineup. Again, I’m very excited to see how this team looks come August.
Sky: I give Alexi Casilla a better chance of playing for a contending Twins team than Brendan Harris, and I’m really not that sold on Casilla. Harris’ bat was a touch above average last year, but he played both shortstop and second base poorly. I think this team will miss Jason Bartlett more than they currently realize.
Here we go, the first of 30 collaborative team previews in March. Make sure to check out Nick the Greek’s thoughts over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.
Kicking us off are the Kansas City Royals, the team with the fewest homeruns in 2007 at 102. That stat leads directly to my…
Bold Statement
The 2008 Royals will double their homerun total from last year.
Ok, maybe they won’t actually double it, but a 50% improvement just doesn’t sound as bold. Alex Gordon’s bound to live up to his potential soon, Mark Teahen hit 18 dingers in only 400 ABs in 2006, and neither Billy Butler nor Jose Guillen could under-slug the 2007 triforce of Joey Gathright, Emil Brown, and Mike Sweeney if they tried. I even like John Buck to improve on his power numbers, although Nick disagrees.
Over/Under 73.5 Wins
Over, most definitely. I can’t predict a huge surge in power and expect a team to get worse, can I? As I point out in the round table below, the starting rotation is the only piece of this team that’s potentially overrated. If the pitching was any better, I’d be as high on the Royals as I am on the Rays.
Homerun Breakout
Of all the hitters mentioned earlier, I think Billy Butler is flying under the radar the most. In 330 ABs last year he hit eight homeruns, so simply playing a full season puts him at about 16. Then add in the fact that he had 25 other extra-base hits — some of those are bound to turn into homeruns as Butler matures and grows stronger. I’m expecting a season total in the mid-twenties.
Homerun Collapse
I don’t exactly expect Jose Guillen to collapse, but he’s surely not the offensive savior many (including the guy who signs his $12MM paycheck) make him out to be. He’ll be 32 years old, dealing with steroid accusations, and still stuck in a home ballpark that doesn’t help homerun totals. I think he could easily finish fifth on the team in homeruns behind Godon, Butler, Buck, and Teahen.
Best Chance For Hardware
I’m tempted to go with Tony Pena, Jr. winning the Gold Glove at shortstop, but we all know you have to have some offensive talent to be eligible for that award. (Go figure.) Is there a SoY Award (Sophomore of the Year)? No? Hmm, ok, Pena, Jr.’s my pick. Oh, and my heart wants me to mention Zach Greinke as a dark horse Cy Young candidate.
Sky: Alright, guys, looking back after the season, what will be the Royals’ big story in 2008?
Clark: Unless he gets bogged down in trying to prove he can play first base instead of just sitting back and raking as a DH, look for Billy Butler to have a huge offensive year. The guy has won two batting titles in three full minor league seasons and hit .297 as a half-season rookie last year. This kid could easily hit .320 with 40 doubles and 15+ homers in 2008.
I also expect Alex Gordon to take the next step in his sophomore season and be an offensive force. He projects for a lower average and more homers than Butler, plus will play great defense at third and likely swipe 20 bases. He’s not yet the ‘next George Brett’, but he may well be on his way to being the ‘next David Wright’.
Nick: First, let me get this off my chest: I don’t recognize the name “David Wright”, because that bastard is dead to me. Maybe you can compare Alex Gordon to a different third baseman, like Eric Chavez?
I really think people will be suprised by the relative strength of the starting pitching. No, Meche, Bannister, Grienke and Hochevar won’t match up to the staffs of the Mets or Red Sox, but they will give consistently strong performances and will be in the top 5 in ERA for the AL — I’m talking just the starters, not the bullpen.
Clark: I agree that the starting rotation will be stronger than many think, particularly if Hochevar is ready sooner rather than later. You want a story that people are going to write at the end of the year? How about what an absolute great deal the Gil Meche signing was. In the first year of a new contract and first year as a staff leader, all Meche did was finish in the top 15 in basically every major pitching category. He set career highs across the board and seemed to really embrace being ‘the man’. Sure, his win-loss record was not good, but with a little more offense behind him in 2008, Meche might end the season as a twenty game winner.
Sky: Really, guys? As much as I love the Royals’ position players, the rotation scares me. Brian Bannister’s strikeout rate is awful and I doubt even his impressive baseball IQ can reproduce a .266 BABIP. Gil Meche still needs to win me over. Will his walk rate remain below 4 BB/9 and has he really morphed into a groundball pitcher? I’m as big a fan of Zach Greinke as there is, but even he’s no guarantee. And Luke Hochevar absolutely needs to make the rotation, if only to prevent another one of these guys from starting games: Kyle Davies, Brett Tomko, Jorge de la Rosa, and Brandon Duckworth.
Will: I also have to disagree a bit regarding the rotation. Even with Meche and Bannister having such solid seasons in 2007, the rotation as a whole still finished last in the AL in K/9 and 11th in ERA.
Chris: The Royals are, as usual, a work in progress. 2008 is not about 2008, but about the next potential winning team — which may or may not be in 2010. They have huge gaps. The potential of giving Tony Pena Jr. another 500 ABs could offset a net positive from Gordon, Butler, and/or Teahen. John Buck is a backup catcher posing as a #1. DeJesus isn’t good enough at the plate or in the field to be a defensive center fielder or an offensive corner outfielder.
Clark: I actually just spent a column defending David DeJesus. A lot of people, at times including me, have criticized DeJesus’ defense in center, yet he ranked third among AL center fielders in Revised Zone Rating last year, making as many out-of-zone plays as Torii Hunter and Grady Sizemore. Assuming his first three seasons are more representative of his offensive abilities than 2007, we’ve got a solid center fielder with a .800+ OPS.
Nick: Hey Clark, can you tell me… is David DeJesus any relation to former cub ‘great’ Ivan Dejesus?
Clark: No, David is not related to Ivan, at least not in any reasonably close fashion. Around our house, he is known as Dave The Christ, except for my oldest daughter who simply refers to him as ‘hot’.
Harry Caray: DeJesus spelled backwards is “Sus-E-JED”.
Sky: I’ll stick up for Tony Pena, Jr. a bit. The average of STATS’ and BIS’ zone ratings puts him at +13 runs last year. Baseball-Reference’s Batting Runs has him at -27 on offense. So with his 5 run shortstop bonus he’s about halfway between replacement level and league-average. I’d call that ‘bad’, not ‘utterly disastrous’.
By the way, could someone please outline the plan for kicking Ross Gload out of the lineup? Seriously, who came up with that idea?
Will: For all the hosannas thrown at Dayton Moore, I remain troubled by his approach to building the lineup. We’ve not only traded for Ross Gload, but also voluntarily brought him back. Along with the acquisition of Pena Jr. and Miguel Olivo, I think it’s plain that there’s a blindspot or a wanton disregard for valuing OBP. But no worries, we’ll “do the little things” with a fervent ardor under Trey Hillman — cue 5,000 stories about how he’s brought a Japanese approach to the Royals — which will fuel our miracle run at scoring 750 runs.
Sky: I thought Hillman was SABR-friendly…?
Will: All I can recall in that regard is that he’s said that he values OBP at the top of the order. There’s also been quite a lot of chatter about being like the Angels and the deep, indescribable fear which is produced in the hearts of men when base stealers run wild.
Honestly, I’m not certain what the Gload signing was about, either, particularly given that it was a multi-year deal for a guy who is pretty much just an older version of three guys the Royals have in AAA already.
Chris: Sorry for the silence, guys, I just woke up from a nap. There’s another point I wanted to address — expectations. I mentioned planning towards 2010 earlier and I was actually being serious. It is easy to lose sight of planning for the future because of the Meche and Guillen signings, but this team isn’t even close to competing, particularly in the AL Central. The question to me is what Moore does long-term to address gaping organizational holes. We don’t have a terrific farm system due to some bad drafts at the end of the Baird regime. Personally, I’ll be taking a forward-looking view of this season (as I have for the last twenty).
Clark: That leads me to what Dayton Moore had done and is doing organizationally. He has restocked the pitching. While weak at the AAA level, the organization is now looking pretty strong on the mound from AA on down. What they do position-player-wise is still a work in process. Frankly, outside of last year’s number one pick, Mike Moustakas, you really cannot project anyone in the system as future major league star. That’s the primary reason you have Pena at short, Olivo and Gload on your bench and an overpaid Jose Guillen in right field: they were necessary evils brought on by hideous drafts which left the organization with no depth.
Getting back to a positive note, I do think Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will be above average corner infielders this year and well above average starting in 2009. That should help cover up some of the offensive holes. Frankly, what are the Red Sox? Some average to above-average players sandwiched around Big Papi and ManRam.
Will: Forget Manny and Ortiz. Lets have a regular player out-OPS Dustin Pedroia first. Even if Gordon and Butler become stars, the Royals still can’t win with a stars and out-machines approach.
Sky: Great point. The Royals might have the front-line hitting and pitching talent to stay out of the AL Central basement, but they don’t have the depth to scare the Tigers or Indians.
Thanks to Will, Chris, and Clark for sharing their expertise, and don’t forget to read Nick’s bold predictions over at Home Run Derby. He’s bound to be funnier than me.
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.