skyking162

There are many valid philosophies for picking an All-Star team. I’m picking the most valuable performances by position players from the first half of 2008, because that seems to be the most popular approach. Offense matters, defense matters, and playing time matters. Oh, and those other pesky things like park effects and league differences matter, too. This is not the team that has the best chance of winning the game. For that, I’d eschew 2008 numbers in favor of pre-season projections and pick a lot of great hitters to take all the pinch-hit at-bats. Starters are listed first at each position and are notated with an (S). Here’s my AL team.

Catcher

Brian McCann (S) — Honestly, it’s tough to tell these three apart. McCann has the highest OPS+ and isn’t any worse behind the plate so he gets the nod. I’m surprised I’m picking the guy with the lowest OBP, but the power is just crazy.
Geovanni Soto — He loses the tie-breaker to McCann based on home ballpark. It’s just a bit easier to hit in Wrigley.
Russell Martin — Maybe I’m just sour because he’s the new Paul LoDuca in LA — annoyingly overrated. Except that a .396 OBP from a catcher is tough to overrate. A thirty point edge in OBP doesn’t make up for a one hundred point edge in slugging, however.

First Base

Albert Pujols (S) — Surprise! Offensively, he and Berkman are at a dead heat, both with OPS+s in the high 180s. Berkman has the advantage of fifty more plate appearances, which is worth about five runs. But Pujols’ edge in the field is at least that.
Lance Berkman — Was it last year he went a few months with a SLG around .400? Yeah, he’s gotten his power back. Mark Teixeira, Derrek Lee, and Adrian Gonzalez are in the race for the third spot, except with the first two guys there’s no need to play a third guy.

Second Base

Chase Utley (S) — One of the best hitters in the league plays second base and is a sick fielder. Love this guy.
Dan Uggla — One of the best hitters in the league plays second base and actually doesn’t suck in the field this year!

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez (S) — There are at least five NL shortstops having better years than the best of the AL. The advanced metrics show Hanley to be league-average at short so far in 2008 — if that holds for the second half the Marlins might not lose ground to the Phillies.
Jose Reyes — He’s actually been two steps better offensively than in 2006 even though his slash stats are exactly the same, thanks to a drop in league-wide offense. Yunel Escobar deserves a mention here thanks to his excellent glove and competent bat — the Braves aren’t winning with pitching this year.

Third Base

Chipper Jones (S) — It’s amazing how one bad week shuts everybody up about the .400 thing — like it was ever a realistic possibility.
David Wright — He’s hit better than Aramis Ramirez in a tougher ballpark and played better defense. Is there a better trifecta of position players on one team than Wright, Reyes, and Carlos Beltran?

Outfield

I discussed the outfield a few days ago. The highlights are that Ryan Braun’s .320 OBP puts him about tenth on the list for most valuable NL outfielder, Brian Giles plays mad D and is underrated by PETCO, and Beltran and Ankiel deserve mad props for playing well in center field.
Pat Burrell (S) — Ranks second behind Holliday in OBP and is first in SLG. He’s played league-average defense in right. And hell, he’s even been clutch.
Carlos Beltran (S) — Compared to an average-fielding corner outfielder, Beltran’s almost three wins more valuable defensively over a full season. That makes up for his relative lack of power this year.
Matt Holliday (S) — No, he’s not as good as his raw stats. But you can’t judge his talent based on his road stats, either — everyone hits worse on the road, his road parks don’t include Coors, and there seems to be something to the whole Coors Hangover thing. Oh, and you’ve got to love a slugger who can also play the field.
Brian Giles — Most underrated player in the National League.
Rick Ankiel — I predicted 10-15 homeruns this year. Oops.
Jason Bay — He’s the best of all the corner outfield guys who aren’t defensive assets.

Designated Hitter

Ryan Ludwick (S) — Uh, how does this get picked for the National League? I guess I’m going with the best hitter yet to make the team, which would be Ryan Ludwick.

What do you think? Am I off my rocker?

Popularity: 4% [?]

There are many valid philosophies for picking an All-Star team. I’m picking the most valuable performances by position players from the first half of 2008, because that seems to be the most popular approach. Offense matters, defense matters, and playing time matters. Oh, and those other pesky things like park effects and league differences matter, too. This is not the team that has the best chance of winning the game. For that, I’d eschew 2008 numbers in favor of pre-season projections and pick a lot of great hitters to take all the pinch-hit at-bats. Starters are listed first at each position and are notated with an (S). Here’s my NL team.

Catcher

Joe Mauer (S) — This one’s a no-brainer. If I were manager, he’d play the whole game.
Dioner Navarro — He’s the only other AL catcher with solid offensive numbers in decent playing time and he even plays good defense.
Take Your Pick — There’s nobody else deserving, but it’s probably smart to carry three catchers since they’re the weakest hitters and should be pinch-hit for at some point. Gerald Laird’s .258 GPA is the third-highest for catchers with at least 200 PAs. Yikes.

First Base

Kevin Youkilis (S) — Other than missing a few games to injury, there’s no chink in his argument. He’s outhit all first basemen except Jason Giambi and plays exceptional defense. Youk’s so good in the field that the Red Sox put him at third base for 118 innings while Mike Lowell was out.
Jason Giambi — Yes, he makes the team before Justin Morneau. Morneau has 75 more plate appearances, but Giambi’s OPS+ is 148 compared to 132 for Morneau. Their poor fielding is basically a wash.

Second Base

Brian Roberts (S) — I actually can’t make a case that he’s been better than Ian Kinsler, but I’m also positive Kinsler hasn’t been better, either. (Therefore I might as well be contrarian.) Roberts doesn’t quite stack up offensively — B-Ref’s batting wins has Kinsler leading by a full win. But it’s also not close defensively — Kinsler is about five runs worse than average while Roberts is five runs in the positive direction. That’s a one win edge for Roberts’ fielding. Overall, a wash.
Ian Kinsler — Yup, he’s an offensive beast, posting a better OPS+ than any AL first baseman. Mark Ellis would be my third option here, and would be my write-in option for shortstop.

Shortstop

Nobody (S) — Ugh, the AL has a terrible contingent of shortstops this year, just horrible. Michael Young has a small offensive advantage over Derek Jeter and Jhonny Peralta, but they’re all merely average hitters with gloves that are mediocre at best. Let’s just say that Orlando Cabrera wouldn’t be a crazy choice (he can field) even with a slash line of .266/.319/.363.

Third Base

Alex Rodriguez (S) — ARod’s 2007 OPS+: 177. ARod’s 2008 OPS+: 170.
Evan Longoria — He has, by far, the second-best GPA among AL third basemen qualified for the batting title. Plus, he’s a good fielder. I’d take Carlos Guillen, Mike Lowell, and Adrian Beltre before Joe Crede.

Outfield

Grady Sizemore (S) — I can’t believe the fans don’t appreciate how phenomenal this guy is. He has 22 homeruns already in 2008, takes a walk, and plays a very good center field. Sizemore’s been by far the most valuable outfielder in the American League.
Josh Hamilton (S) — He hasn’t just played center field, but his ability to hold his own there puts him ahead of similarly productive hitters.
JD Drew (S) — There are a plethra of impressive power-hitting corner outfielders in the AL this year, but none can match Drew’s .400+ OBP. That makes him my third starter even though he lags a bit in plate appearances.
BJ Upton — No, I can’t find his power, either. But 377 plate appearances with a .391 OBP is quite valuable. Plus, he’s been a good center fielder so far in 2008. That’s worth two wins over any of the poor-fielding corner guys (Dye, Quentin, Magglio, Manny). If he did have last year’s power, he’d be in Grady Sizemore territory.
Johnny Damon — Let’s compare Damon to the four guys I just mentioned. His slugging percentage matches Magglio and Manny and is only .040 points behind Quentin. His edge in on-base percentage gives him an equal OPS+ to everyone but Dye. But the fielding isn’t even comparable, at least a full win better than all four guys. Dye’s offense almost makes up the difference, but not quite.
Jermaine Dye — He makes it as the sixth outfielder, which is really the second DH.

Let me make a comment about the outfield selections. Many people would be shocked that Carlos Quentin, Magglio Ordonez, and Manny Ramirez aren’t as valuable as BJ Upton and Johnny Damon. (I’d even consider putting Curtis Granderson on the team before them.) There are two reasons. One is that those hitters are good, but not great. There’s a difference between a .370 OBP and a .400 OBP and there’s a difference between a .500 SLG and a .580 SLG. The second reason is fielding. Can you imagine the damage of Manny Ramirez in center field? Ouch! But Upton and Damon don’t just handle the position adequately, they’re assets. (Yes, I know Damon’s playing left, but he’s still fielding like a center fielder.) If you look at the NL outfield, there are more corner sluggers who make the team, like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. But those guys are out-hitting their AL counterparts (and Holliday can play the field.)

Designated Hitter

Milton Bradley (S) — Another obvious choice. But let’s say Bradley was really an outfielder. Would we have to pick a DH for this spot? Or could we just pick the ninth-best hitter in the AL, whether that’s Ian Kinsler, Jason Giambi, or Tony Pena Jr.?

What do you think? Am I off my rocker?

Popularity: 4% [?]

Not to pick on ESPN, because everyone out there choosing All-Stars has a similar list, but here are the outfield lineups their experts came up with for the Mid-Summer classic:

AL
Josh Hamilton
JD Drew
Carlos Quentin

NL
Ryan Braun
Pat Burrell
Ryan Ludwick

Granted, all six of those players are having great years, but there are clearly some better choices, especially in the National League. Let’s start with Ryan Braun, who I’m clearly not afraid to pick on. The good news is that he’s a much better fielder out in left (league average!) than he was at third base, but the bad news is that his .317 on-base percentage is lower than Bengie Molina’s. Even 20 homeruns won’t make up for that.

Instead of Braun, I’d go with Matt Holliday. Sure, his power is down (”only” 12 homeruns so far), but his slash line of .339/.425/.560 can only be touched by Pat Burrell. Adjusting for ballpark still leaves Holliday with a 150 OPS+, exactly the same as he posted in last year’s MVP campaign. Oh and he’s an above-average corner outfielder.

The other NL outfielder I have a problem with is Ryan Ludwick, who’s had about 50 PAs fewer than other full-timers, has an OBP of “only” .366, and hasn’t played well in the field. He’s definitely no Ryan Braun, but there are few more deserving options:

• Brian Giles — Yes, seriously. Sure, his slugging percentage is only .439, but thanks to a .399 OBP and playing home games in PETCO park he sports a 132 OPS+. Kosuke Fukudome, who has a very similar slash line but in a slight hitters’ park, has an OPS+ of 114. Giles has also flashed some sick leather, rating as a dozen runs better than average. He won’t win any homerun derbies, but Brian Giles is probably having the most underrated All-Star season of anyone at any position.
• Carlos Beltran — Sure, he’s got the same OBP as Ludwick and trails by .100 points of SLG. But he’s an excellent baserunner, has fifty more plate appearances, and plays Gold Glove center field. Compared to left, center is five runs more valuable over half a season. Then add in the fact that Beltran is ten runs better than the average center fielder and you’ve got a huge swing in value.
• Jason Bay — Start with Ryan Ludwick. Keep the OPS+. Add 60 plate appearances. Seems like you’ve now got something better, right? That’s Jason Bay.

The only reason I hope the starting NL outfield is Braun, Ludwick, and Burrell is that I would love to see one of them play center. And I usually root fo rthe American League.

Speaking of the American League, how about their starting outfield? I really don’t have any qualms about Josh Hamilton and JD Drew making the the cut, but Carlos Quentin is quite overrated. I’d take a few outfielders over him, but the one who clearly deserves the spot is Grady Sizemore. Like Carlos Beltran in the NL, Sizemore’s a superior center fielder whose offensive value is obscured by a low batting average. Quentin’s main claim to fame is his power, but Sizemore’s slugging percentage is actually sixteen points higher. With Sizemore’s OBP being only ten points lower, you’ve basically got the same hitter with strikingly better defensive value, since Quentin is a lousy corner outfielder

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Finally, here’s a totally unrelated thought. If Lance Berkman is voted the NL’s first baseman and Albert Pujols is voted the NL’s designated hitter, can they switch roles for the actual game? I can understand how the honor of being the starting first baseman should go to Berkman’s better 2008 performance, but if both guys are in the lineup anyway, shouldn’t you put Pujols’ glove in the field? I guess we’ll see how much these managers actually care about winning.

Popularity: 4% [?]