skyking162

On day four we’ve got our first team that finished with a winning record in 2007 and our first division winner — the Los Angeles Angels. (Yes, I’ve given in to the new name. I might as well enjoy some stability before they change it again.) Don’t forget to check out Nick the Greek’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.

Over/Under 92 Wins

I’m going with the under, for two reasons. One, the Angels aren’t any better than that (I know that sounds dumb, but they only had 90 Pythagorean wins in 2007) and two, it seems like there are a lot of underrated, improving teams in the AL.

That being said, I also don’t think this team will win fewer than 88 games, thanks to their impressive organizational depth. As Sean points out in the round table, the Angels have too many players deserving of significant playing time. Sure, it would hurt to lose Vlad, Hunter, or Lackey for the season, but their replacement would likely be league-average. That’s a major difference between LA and the other, sub-.500 teams I’ve written about so far. The Royals, Twins, and Nationals just don’t have quality players to plug into the lineup when needed.

Bold Statement

The Angels will give up the most runs per game since 2000.

What that really means is that they’ll allow at least 4.6 runs per game, “bettering” the 2003 team. (The 2000 staff appears to have been really bad, allowing 5.36 runs per game, but teams averaged 5.3 runs per game that year.) I realize last year’s rotation had two studs in John Lackey (3.01 ERA) and Kelvim Escobar (3.40 ERA). And I know the team has jettisoned Bartolo Colon’s 6.34 ERA in 99.3 IP and traded for master of the win, John Garland. But I think the whole rotation is overrated:

• John Lackey stranded 76% of his baserunners last year and had a 3.66 FIP.
• John Garland might have won 18 games twice in the past three years, but his xFIP over that time period is about 4.70 and he hasn’t struck out more than five players per nine innings.
• Kelvim Escobar (in addition to being injured) gave up homeruns at a rate of six per 100 flyballs in 2007, which is 3-4 fewer than his average as an Angels starter.
• Ervin Santana’s 5.78 ERA last year is just as representative of his three-year skillset as his 4.28 ERA in 2006.
• People are still hung up on Jered Weaver’s 2.56 ERA as a rookie, when he somehow managed to strand 86% of baserunners. His expected ERAs in both major league seasons have been similar, north of 4.50.

Just to prevent misinterpretation, this isn’t a bad rotation, just overrated and potentially disappointing.

Homerun Breakout

Brandon Wood. Just check out his minor league numbers.

Homerun Collapse

Vlad has two things working against him. He’s getting older and walking more. Age will sap his power in addition to increasing the chance of injury, while taking walks decreases his opportunities to smack the ball over the fence.

Best Chance For Hardware

While I’d like to give some props to Howie Kendrick or Casey Kotchman for their plus bats and very good defensive skills, neither is quite superstar material, Vlad for MVP is the obvious pick. I think the Mariners can stay close enough to the Angels to make his contribution critical, and maybe he can combine last year’s walk-rate with one more big power season. The stolen bases are a thing of the past, though — Sorry fantasy leaguers. (Question for future reference — does the Rolaids Relief Award come with anything metallic or solid?)

Angels Round Table

Nick and I are joined today by Sean Smith from Anaheim Angels All The Way and Rev HaloFan from Halos Heaven.

Sky: The Angels are the largest favorite of any of the six divisions. Is 2008 in the bag or could they miss the playoffs?

Sean: The Angels are huge favorites, but nothing is ever guaranteed. If Vlad, Lackey, and Escobar all went down with injuries, and Bedard and King Felix compete neck and neck for the Cy Young, the Mariners could squeak by the Angels.

Nick: I am inclined to agree with Sean that nothing is really guaranteed for the Angels. There is a significant threat from the Mariners and given how bad the Rangers and A’s will be this year, it is imperative that the team beat up quite regularly on those two cellar dwellers.

Rev: Actually, I am not shitting my pants over Queen Felix. 2008 is not in the bag, though. Scioscia likes to stick with his guys and every day Gary Matthews is in the lineup is a day spent possibly spinning our wheels.

Sky: Looking back after the season, what will be the biggest Angels storyline of 2008?

Rev: Brandon Wood. You read it here first even though every self-appointed analyst who has now given up on him will claim they called it.

Sean: Shortstop. If Aybar hits .250 with a .275 OBA and 40 errors, but the Angels stubbornly refuse to take him out of the lineup, he could single-handedly jeopardize the season. I say, Izturis is almost a sure thing to be a solid player if not one with upside, and Wood is a gamble but with huge upside.

Sky: What do Angel fans know about the team that the mainstream media should pay more attention to?

Sean: The Angels have a lot more players who deserve a starting job than there are lineup spots. Vlad, Anderson, Matthews Jr., Hunter, Rivera, Willits, and Morales all deserve playing time, but three of them are going to be on the bench any given day. Mike Scioiscia has his work cut out for him making sure that everyone is happy, and egos and personalities are kept under control.

Sky: Seriously Sean? You created the phenomenal CHONE projection system and TotalZone historical fielding ratings, but now think the Angels 2008 season comes down to Scioiscia keeping the veterans happy?

Sean: I did not say that the 2008 season comes down to keeping the veterans happy. I just said that it could be a challenge for Scioscia because they have so many good players at the OF/DH spots.

Rich: Is there any chance that one of those OF/DH’s isn’t with the Angels after July 31st?

Nick: I think they deal from strength to get more pitching.

Rich: By the way, how high is the center field fence in Anaheim? Just tall enough for Torii to make HR-saving catches?

Rev: Hunter should look great on the highlight reels with that Anaheim enter field fence. My season seats are 6 rows behind Torii — look for the crackhead in the biker jacket, folks.

Sky: I’m a big fan of both Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman, two players who can get on base and field their positions quite well. Which one do people think will end up having the better career?

Sean: Tough call. I love both of these guys, and hope they have a decade each as key players on the Angels. Kotchman is really slow, and has old player skills, so I’ll pick him to peak early and fade sooner, and Kendrick to go on to have a longer and more productive career.

Nick: I see Kendrick as the easy pick here. If Kotchman was such a good talent, the Angels would have flirted with Konerko. I am really interested in how Jon Garland, or as we call him here on the Southside, Judy Garland, does in the Big A. It bodes well that he gets to play inferior talent in the Rangers and A’s quite often this year because he made his living betting up on the Royals and the Tigers (pre-2006) while he struggle against more quality opponents.

Your Turn

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There’s a rumor floating around the internet that the White Sox might trade Paul Konerko to the Angels for Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana. Everybody seems to think this trade would be a major coup for the Angels. Are they stupid?

Where does Konerko play on the Angels? Some suggest first base, because he has a better stick than Casey Kotchman. However, Kotchman’s actually not that much worse offensively. In fact, he posted a higher OPS+ last year, 119 to 116. Over the past three seasons, Konerko’s OPS+ is 129, but Konerko will be 32 next year while Kotchman will be 25.

There’s also the issue of fielding, where Kotchman runs circles around Konerko. The Angels’ first baseman deserved the gold glove, saving his team 13 compared to average. Konerko was 4 runs below average. There’s no reason to replace Kotchman with a worse player who’s older and more expensive.

On the other hand, Konerko could DH, a role currently by Garret Anderson. Konerko’s a definite upgrade, and it’s unlikely both Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. will hold up for the whole season anyways. But is the cost of upgrading to Konerko worth the price?

Nope. Konerko makes $12 million per season through 2010. Based on 2007 numbers, Konerko is 15 runs better than replacement overall. (Poor fielding first baseman have to hit like crazy to be worth anything. Konerko is merely good.) If he can revert to 2005-06 form, he’s more like a 30 run player. At $4 million per 10 runs, Konerko’s worth between $6 and $12 million per season. It’s not even a good deal to pay the man under his current contract, let alone give up two young players for that right.

And how good are those two young players the Angels would have to trade to the White Sox? Howie Kendrick’s a huge talent, and Ervin Santana is a decent gamble.

Kendrick was near the top of most prospect lists before the 2006 season, and posted a 108 OPS+ as a 23 year old second baseman in 2007. He’s pretty similar to Dustin Pedroia offensively, although Pedroia takes more walks. Kendrick’s also a solid fielder, coming in 5 runs above average, all for a salary not measured in the millions. In half the playing time, Kendrick was as valuable as Konerko last season.

Ervin Santana appears to be inconsistent. He posted ERAs of 4.65 and 4.28 his first two years in the majors before seeing that number balloon into the high 5’s last year. Santana’s weakness is giving up the long-ball, a function of his high flyball rate. Assuming league-average defense and a league-average percentage of flyballs turning into homeruns, Santana’s actually been a very consistent pitcher, posting xFIPs of 4.98, 5.11, and 4.93. There’s still room for improvement, of course, but that seems to be who Santana is as a pitcher, which pegs him as a typical fourth starter.

So, is there any reason the White Sox wouldn’t be the team jumping at this trade? They’d unload an overrated first baseman who’s being paid more than he’s worth. In return they’d receive a better-than-average second baseman who makes no money and has the potential to be a star. Oh, and throw in a relatively cheap fourth starter.

Photo courtesy of MLB.com

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