skyking162

Dave Cameron sums it all up pretty well over at Fangraphs. But here’s what it boils down to — Rich Harden still has significant injury issues even though he’s made eleven straight starters. (Can you say, “selling high”?) In return, the A’s received three league-average players that are cost-controlled. I especially like Murton, who sports a career MLB OPS+ of 105 with good corner defense. With the A’s current stockpile of minor league arms and Beane’s obvious ability to look past ERAs and find quality players off the scrap heap, replacing Harden’s 5-7 starts in 2008 shouldn’t be tough, and the same thing goes for Chad Gaudin, who I’m not going to mention again.

Also, if you haven’t already, check out Dave’s series on the 50 most valuable commodities in baseball, where commodity is defined as a player’s production given his current contract. I agree 100% with his choice of Evan Longoria at number one. Why? I left this comment at FanGraphs:

Imagine it’s January, 2014. Gas costs $7.50 a gallon and 850 square-foot apartments in NYC cost $4800 per month. Longoria just became a free agent after his six years of slavery to the Rays, coming off two MVP seasons of 140 OPS+ offense and stellar defense at third. He’s set to sign a huge free agent contract — $25MM per year? $35MM per year? Nope, he signs for three more years at $11MM per season. That’s what Carlos Silva’s earning in 2008, when gas is only $4.25 per gallon. Yeah, that’s a good deal for the Rays.

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Nick Swisher was just traded to the White Sox for two excellent pitching prospects (one who’s almost ready for the big leagues and one who’s a couple years away) and a mediocre outfield prospect. Who won the trade? I’m going to say that the White Sox received more total value, but the A’s made the smarter trade.

Nick Swisher is really good (four wins in ‘07) and has five years left on an extremely reasonable contract:

08:$3.5M
09:$5.3M
10:$6.75M
11:$9M,
12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)

Four wins on the free agent market costs about $18 million dollars. Over five years the White Sox will save about $55 million bucks ($90 million in value minus the $35 million in contract costs.)

The return on the two pitching prospects is quite risky — both could be aces or both could get injured. But I don’t think a #2 and a #4 starter is an unreasonable assumption. Through their third arbitration years, that’s maybe $40 million in savings above contract cost for the A’s.

So, it appears the White Sox are getting more for their money than the Athletics. However, neither team will compete for a couple years. The A’s are fully admitting they can’t compete with the Angels and are counting on a run in 2010 or 2011. The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength. Neither team will make the playoffs with or without Nick Swisher, but only the Athletics realize that.

If we ignore the next two seasons, the picture is different. Swisher’s value in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is much less, because his salary is much higher. He’d cost $54 million on the free agent market and will cost the Sox $26 million, a savings of only $28 million. Compared to the $40 million in savings the A’s will get from the two prospect pitchers, that’s not going to cut it.

Swisher will help keep the White Sox above .500 for a few years, but won’t be enough to help them catch the Indians or Tigers. The A’s also won’t compete for a couple seasons, but when their farm system matures, they’ll be a playoff contender. Advantage, Oakland.

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