skyking162

I’d like to nominate Milwaukee’s signing of Mike Cameron as the best free agent move of the off-season. It’s basically a one-year deal for $7 million and triggers an avalanche of changes on defense:

1. Cameron takes over in center field. For 2007, my simplistic zone rating numbers put him as slightly below average, but Dave Pinto’s system puts him slightly above average. From 2003 to 2007, UZR puts him at +15 per season. Sure, he’s aging, but +10 runs in 2008 is a reasonable expectation.

   Bill Hall has only played center field for one season, but he didn’t play it well. I’ve got him at -5 runs and Dave Pinto says more like -15. Let’s call it -10 and say Cameron is a 20-run improvement.

2. Bill Hall takes over at third base. From 2003 through 2006, UZR calls Hall +6 runs at shortstop and -5 runs at third base, per season. It’s strange for a player to be worse at third than short, but it’s probably a sample size thing. Let’s split the difference and go with exactly average.

   Ryan Braun has only played third base for one major league season, but it was awful. In only two-thirds of a season, I’ve got him at -23 runs and Dave Pinto agrees. Over a full season, I’ll go with -30 runs, showing a bit of conservatism. That makes Hall a 30-run improvement.

3. Ryan Braun takes over in left field. Braun’s main weakness at third base is a terrible throwing arm — the Fans Scouting Report shows his release and accuracy are awful. Moving to left field will make that much less important. Learning a new position isn’t easy, but the Fans think Braun’s first step and range are just fine and similar to Geoff Jenkins’. Jenkins has better hands, however. Asking Braun to be league-average in left is probably too much, but -10 runs seems reasonable.

   Gabe Gross was the default option before Cameron signed and is basically a league-average corner outfielder. Switching from Gross to Braun is a 10 run drop-off.

Ok, let’s add it all up: +20 in CF, +30 at 3B, and -10 in LF results in +40 runs overall. That’s a four win improvement just on defense. Put another way, Milwaukee pitchers can expect to see their ERAs drop by over a quarter of a run. Isn’t it amazing what you can achieve by signing good fielders and moving others to positions that fit their skills?

Cameron’s not just as asset on defense, either. He can draw walks and hit for some power. Sure, his offensive numbers were down in San Diego, but that park is brutal on hitters, reducing run scoring by 20%. Cameron’s .328 OBP and .421 SLG in 2007 translate to a .335 OBP and .443 SLG in a neutral park. 2006 was even better: .359 OBP and .486 SLG.

If the Brewers hadn’t signed Cameron, they’d be batting Gabe Gross, a career .245/.343/.410 hitter. If Cameron repeats his 2007 numbers, he’s similar to Gross offensively. If he hits like 2006, he’s 15 runs better.

Including both offense and defense, the Brewers are between 4.0 and 5.5 wins better with Mike Cameron than without him. At $4 million per win, that’s worth between $16 and $22 million on the free agent market, all for only $7 million. We can’t give all that credit to Cameron (the Brewers technically could have moved Hall and Braun without signing Cameron), but acquiring a good center fielder forces the issue. It’s a great signing and the Brewers are now back to competing with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

(By the way, you’ve got to love that a guy who’s admitted to playing baseball drunk is now a member of the Brewers.)

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