If you sort Baseball Prospectus’s Quality of Pitchers Faced stats for batters descending by OBP, you come across almost every Cardinals’ hitter before finding a full-time player for another team. Does that mean St. Louis’ offensive production is a bit overrated? Or does it mean they’re so good that they significantly distort the stats of opposing pitchers? I’m going to lean towards the former, but there’s certainly some room for examining who exactly has pitched against the Cardinals this year.
Day 7 - (If you’ve noticed that we’re a day behind, shhh, don’t let anybody else know.) Welcome to the Colby Rasmus Show, also known as the St. Louis Cardinals 2008 season. If you don’t know that name, you sure will by the end of the round table. I just gave Rasmus an invitation to the SkyKing Man-Crush Team’s spring training, and I could see him making the opening day roster (for the Cardinals, too). Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. Here’s a list of links to all 30 team previews.
Bold Statement
The Cardinals’ rotation won’t have any starters win a dozen games.
The first argument is that the offense isn’t a strength, and losing Albert Pujols to surgery is a strong possibility.
But then take a look at the starting rotation and tell me which names are a decent bet to be healthy most of the season and post an ERA better than average:
Adam Wainwright — This is probably the Cards’ best bet, and he only won 14 games last year with a 3.70 ERA in 200 innings.
Braden Looper — He’s more valuable as a starter than reliever, but still isn’t that good.
Anthony Reyes — I’m a huge Reyes fan, but he’ll have to live up to his potential in order to even start a dozen games again.
Todd Wellemeyer — Who? Exactly.
Chris Carpenter — Mr. Tommy John will miss a significant chunk of the season and will likely take time to get back into ace form.
Matt Clement — Another guy making a comeback from injury who won’t be ready at the start of the season.
Mark Mulder — Yet a third guy making a comeback from injury who won’t be ready at the start of the season.
Joel Pineiro — He looked good in eleven games last year, but his track record is nowhere near as pretty.
I realize that while the likelihood of each individual pitcher winning a dozen games is under 50%, the odds of everyone doing it is much smaller. But if there’s a team capable of cobbling together a staff of made up of 8-10 pitchers throwing 100 innings each at a 4.75 ERA, this is it.
Best Chance For Hardware
If you’re not a Cardinals fan and haven’t heard of Colby Rasmus, do a little research. He’s a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. He’s only 21 years old, hits for power, takes a walk, and has some wheels. His minor league line is .285/.371/.510 in 1200 ABs and he bettered that last year in AA. Throw in the scouting report of good skills in center field, and you’ve got a great chance for stardom. There’s a small chance St. Louis doesn’t have him start the season in the majors, though.
Over/Under 77 Wins
Under, although I assume this line was set before the extent of Albert Pujols’ injury was known by all. I just don’t see enough bright spots to illuminate all the darkness and mediocrity. That being said, there is the possibility of this team staying in contention if everything falls right. Pujols and the injury-riddled rotation could become healthy. Colby Rasmus could be everything he’s cracked up to be. Troy Glaus could smack 40 homeruns and be joined by Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan in the 30 homerun club. But I wouldn’t bet on any of that.
Homerun Breakout
It wouldn’t be new territory, but Troy Glaus has a reasonable chance to return to 40 homeruns if he stays healthy and doesn’t piss off Tony Larussa. NL pitching isn’t nearly as talented as over in the AL, although Busch Stadium isn’t as homer-friendly as the Rogers Centre, either.
Homerun Collapse
I like his story as much as anyone, but Ankiel’s minor-league numbers don’t support a .285 AVG and his batted ball charts don’t support his 2008 40-homerun pace. One, he’s not an extreme flyball hitter, putting more balls in play on the ground than in the air. Two, a full 20% of his flyballs left the park last year, well above the league-average. Given his 2:1 ratio of homers to doubles, I see his homerun total more in the 20-range, not the 30+ total that many people think he can put up based on a quarter of a major-league season. And three, if he does start off the season on a tear, pitchers will throw more balls out of the strike zone, taking advantage of his below-average walk-rate. That will help his overall value, but not his homerun total. I’ll be rooting for him, though.
Sky: So, what will be the Cardinals main storyline of 2008?
Erik: This will be the worst season ever under Tony La Russa’s watch as the Cardinals manager.
Daniel: LaRussa’s worst year was a 73-89 1997. (Hard to believe the Cardinals challenged Houston that year until late July.) I’ll go on record and say this year’s team is not that bad. I’d expect more like last year’s 78 wins, with a chance at 81.
Dan: The major Cardinals storyline of 2008? It’s either going to be “Cardinal Youngsters Perk Up Disappointing Season” or “Thousands of Cardinals Fans Leap from Metropolitan Square.” Cardinal fan happiness is, right now, inextricably linked to what Colby Rasmus does when he hits the majors.
Daniel: What do Cardinal fans know that the media doesn’t? Well, thanks to people like Erik, I think Cardinal fans know that the minor league system is not a bereft as some would make it out to be. We know that Colby Rasmus is going to be fun to watch. We know that Pujols has played in pain just about every season. And we know that there’s no place better to spend a summer afternoon than watching the Cardinals.
Erik: The mainstream media has started to picked up on it weeks after we’ve all known it- Albert Pujols will need Tommy John surgery, and possibly some time this season. I think is the “why” to your first question. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be in contention, and should they perform they way the projections like PECOTA expect them to, Pujols could succumb sooner then later. The medical team says they are more then OK with Albert playing, but this is the same group of quacks that green lighted signing Matt Clement, fed us a lines of crap about Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter’s health, and many players such as Scott Rolen have sought treatment elsewhere. I could get into litany of stupidity we’ve experienced, I’ll spare you from that. They already look to be mediocre at full health and they look much worse without the Big Guy.
Rich: If Pujols goes down, this team is going to compete with the Royals for the worst MLB team in Missouri. They might just do it with Prince Albert in the lineup.
Erik: As far as “feel good stuff”, the team is getting younger and prospects like Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez and Rule 5 pick Brian Barton could all make substantial contributions sometime in the season.
Sky: When I think of young-ish Cardinals, I think of Chris Duncan, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Which one of those guys will have the better career? I’m thinking Ankiel’s 2007 homerun barrage will go down in history next to Shane Spencer’s.
Daniel: That’s Erik’s area of expertise, but from a layman, the first question is easily Rasmus. Ankiel will be better than Spencer, but he’s not going to have the longevity and all-around career that Rasmus is. For those coming up, I’d say Chris Perez and Jamie Garcia.
Erik: I think Ankiel’s power is very real, I’m not ready to put him in the Shane Spencer category, though I think he’ll probably get exposed at some point. At 28, I’m not sure he’s young-ish, more newish to hitting, and considering that he is, what he did last year hitting 43 bombs between AAA/MLB is nuts. I think he’s capable of hitting 30-35 homers per year, but on the negative he’ll also post OBP’s in the .290 range. But Rasmus is the best prospect to come up through the system in what seems like ages. He can run, field, hit for power and draw walks. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial All Star.
Dan: Rasmus will definitely have the best career; he’s an all-world prospect. As for Ankiel, the home runs are real–I think he’s going to have a few years where he’s Jeff Francoeur with more range and the same game-changing arm, which is plenty valuable when you’re getting it cheaply.
Nick: OK, so if the team needs to focus on 2010, what chips do they have to parlay into major league ready prospects? Certainly no pitching with so many starters on the shelf. Adam Kennedy? I just don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon.
Daniel: I don’t know that the future is all that far away for the current team. They need middle infield upgrade, obviously, but with a return to health of Carpenter and the signing of a good pitcher in free agency next off-season, they could be right back into contention. I don’t think this is a total “trade off everyone and rebuild” type of situation.
However, the most tradeable option would be Chris Duncan, in my opinion. His bat is helpful, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think he necessarily has a lot of shelf life. At the same time, he’s attractive to a lot of teams because of his price as well as the pop.
Daniel: I think the story of ‘08 is going to the pitching. The question is whether it’ll be a fairy tale or, as expected, a horror story. I’ve written on my blog often that I think the pitching this year will compare favorably to last season’s. While that’s like saying I’m faster than Yadier Molina, it still is an important point. If the pitching keeps the team in games, there should be enough offensive weapons plus a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention. I’m not saying they are going to head into September with a three-game lead or anything, but it won’t be a dismal, completely lost season.
Rich: A team should never count on “a lack of a dominating NL Central club to at least keep them in contention.” The Cubs employed that philosophy for years, and they consistently finished 4th or worse in the Division.
Daniel: It’s all about health. If Clement, Mulder and later Carpenter come back and pitch like reasonable facsimiles of themselves, the Cardinals have a pretty strong rotation, at least from 1-5. If these things don’t happen, and Wellemeyer or Thompson have to make numerous starts, then the prospects don’t look nearly as bright and the Rasmus Watch starts very early.
Sky: My problem with the rotation is that while there’s the potential for each starter to be very good, the median expectation falls well below the hype. Which one of Mulder, Clement, Pineiro, or Reyes is most likely to put together 160 IP at a sub 4.00 ERA? Mulder’s done it once in four years, Clement’s at once in five years, Reyes has never come close, and Pineiro’s two seasons were 2002 and 2003. Not that a shot-in-the-dark staff is a bad idea on a team with low expectations.
Daniel: I know that’s somewhat of a rhetorical question, but if I had to pick one, I’d say Reyes, because there is still potential there if it all clicks. There has been a lot of positive press on him this spring (which, granted, is one of the hallmarks of this time of year) and he’s shown flashes of what he can be. Whether it will all come together, I’m not sure, but I’m cautiously optimistic that he takes a step forward this year.
The staff ERA was 4.65 last year, and that was with a fairly strong showing by most of the bullpen. I gotta think that not having people like Kip Wells and Mike Maroth on the staff has to count for something.
Dan: As for everybody else, the Cardinals’ main need is replacing the Izturis-wide holes with adequate players, the kind of team-wide averageness that lets you go after a big free agent or make a risky trade like they’ve done in years past. If, by 2009, Jaime Garcia and one or two others among the Cardinals’ glut of average starter prospects can shore up the rotation such that it isn’t reliant on trash-heap pickups every year, it would be a great start.
The Cardinals are, right now, going into the season counting on the worst keystone combo in recent memory. Last year Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy combined for 29 extra base hits, and they’re both hemmorhaging range afield. We’re talking all-time bad. It’d be like a team going into the season counting on, say, Matt Clement and Todd Wellemeyer to fill spots in the rotation.
Erik: I’ll end with a few more comments on the farm system. Chris Perez is a flame-throwing college closer who’s moved up the ranks quickly. His slider is devastating, but he has troubles with walks. I’m hoping for Mitch Williams and praying he’s not Joey Devine. Clayton Mortensen, Jaime Garcia and Adam Ottavino we all hope become #3 type rotation options. Mortensen keeps the ball on the ground with extreme prejudice, Garcia, a lefty, is the a draft surprise with a big hook and is also an extreme ground-baller. Ottavino throws 93-95, even deep into his pitch counts and a decent slider and change.
There are also some others who are kind of under the radar and could be up by 2010: 2B/SS Jose Martinez, 3B Allen Craig and RHP Jess Todd. And for your readers who like fantasy baseball out there, here’s a guy that they may wanna scoop up at the back of the draft-RHP Kyle McClellan.
Sky: Alright, that should wrap things up — unless someone wants to mention Colby Rasmus’ name one more time. No? Ok, thanks again to Dan, Erik, and Daniel.
Sky is a baseball fan and racket sport afficianado living in upstate NY. His favorite color is orange and is just about ready to give up on his life-long dream to become the next Magnus ver Magnuson (World's Strongest Man). His favorite baseball teams are the Yankees and Red Sox, proving that there's hope in the Middle East.