skyking162

Short answer: when your name is David Ortiz and the year is 2007.

Long answer: Sure, Ortiz’s run-producing numbers are lower in 2007 than during his homerun-laden 2006 campaign. Big Papi’s homeruns dropped from 57 to 35 and his RBIs dropped from 137 to 117.

But Ortiz’s batting average went up 45 points from .287 to .332, resulting in a gigantic .445 OBP (30 points higher than last year) and .621 SLG (only 15 points lower than last year thanks to the bump in AVG and 23 additional doubles. By the way, those 52 doubles tie Ortiz for 35th all-time in a single season.)

So why the lack of hoopla this year? I see two reasons. One, hitting a lot of homeruns is a big deal, no matter what else you do (see Prince Fielder’s 2007 MVP campaign). And two, big Papi wasn’t clutch like in the past. He cost the Red Sox a win and a half with his lack of clutchiness in 2007 — the same number he helped the Sox win last year. However, clutchiness isn’t a repeatable skill and the situations in which Papi steps to the plate aren’t under his control. That leaves complaints about his lack of homeruns.

Nobody’s made a big deal about it, but homeruns were down across baseball in 2007. In 2006 AL players hit homeruns in 3.2% of at-bats, while that number is at 2.9% this year — a drop of 10%. (Run-scoring only dropped by 1.5%, though.) Even with the same power, Ortiz would have been expected to hit “only” 51 homeruns in 2007. Ok, so it’s still a big dropoff, but not quite as extreme. Hitting 19 extra singles and 23 extra doubles helps ease the pain, though.

How about overall value? Ortiz’s 2006 earned him a VORP of 77 runs. In 2007, he’s a full win better at 86 runs — good for 3rd in the AL. And Ortiz’s 176 OPS+ in 2007 was the best of his career.

So when you hear people calling Ortiz’s 2007 season a down year (or when you don’t hear anybody talking about it at all), make sure to mention he’s actually been better this time around. Bring up the .332 batting average and 52 doubles. In the right circles you could even mention the 176 OPS+ and 86 VORP. Even removing a chunk of value for possessing zero defensive talent, Ortiz is still the best player on the Red Sox and should appear on a significant number of MVP ballots. 2007 was not a down year.

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