skyking162

From 2005 through 2008 (last week some time) here are the VORP leaders for corner outfielders:

Player		VORP
Vlad Guerrero	211
Matt Holliday	208
Manny Ramirez	197
Jason Bay	161
Magglio Ordonez	153
Carlos Lee	147
Pat Burrell	143
Adam Dunn	143
Jermaine Dye	139
Bobby Abreu	138
Carl Crawford	119
J.D. Drew	110
Barry Bonds	108
Alfonso Soriano	106
Brian Giles	105
Moises Alou	105

If you figure Bay’s glove is worth a dozen runs per year more than Manny’s, then they’re a wash overall.

Money-wise, the Sox would have paid Manny $20MM next year. Instead, they’ll pay $8MM to Bay plus about $2MM to Bay this year, or $10MM total. (The would have paid Manny’s remaining $7MM 2008 salary either way.) So, in summary the trade from the Red Sox eyes is…

Gains

$10MM
Removing Manny’s clubhouse issues

Washes

Manny’s vs. Bay’s production
Draft picks from losing Manny vs. draft picks from losing Bay

Losses

Craig Hansen (going forward, certainly not this year)
Brandon Moss
Manny’s 2010 option

Here’s one good question I read somewhere: If the Dodgers are ok with Manny’s clubhouse antics, why not instead sign Barry Bonds, who’s better and wouldn’t have cost Andy LaRoche?

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Forgive me for only posting the Dodgers round table right now. I’ve been on the road interviewing for teaching jobs and writing thank-you letters is temporarily taking the place of writing baseball previews. I will return to the proper set of priorities shortly. Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.

Dodgers Round Table

Nick and I are joined by Erin Wilson from Beantown West, Jon Weisman from Dodger Thoughts, and Steve Hulkower from Bugs & Cranks. The following thoughts have been heavily edited (our guest bloggers almost filled up my Gmail storage quota and Nick has a dirty electronic mouth.)

Sky: So what are the storylines for the Dodgers in 2008?

Erin: The Dodgers are set for most positions heading into this season, but there are a couple of interesting situations developing in spring training.

Garciaparra completely sucked last year. He claims that he knows what was wrong, and it will be fixed this year. My love for Nomar makes me think he will do better this year. That’s not exactly a bold statement given his 7 HR, 59 RBI and OPS+ 78 (every time I see that number, I cringe, especially since it’s only three points better than Juan Pierre, for the love of god).

I want to believe that Garciaparra will put up “Comeback Player of the Year” kind of numbers, but it’s hard to imagine. Andy LaRoche is waiting in the wings, and many believe the job should be his. I’ve advocated that in the past, but as the season approaches, I think I’m leading more toward letting Nomar start, but giving him a very short leash.

Jon: I’m not clear on what the case is for Garciaparra other than sentimental. He might have a bounce left in him, but slight improvement isn’t enough. LaRoche is more likely to have a better on-base percentage, slugging percentage and defense than Garciaparra. If the Dodgers are gonna operate on a premise of hope, why not throw it the way of the guy with a better chance to succeed.

Nick: I am not sure what the upside of keeping Nomar in the starting lineup. He clearly is a shell of his former self and even if he were to rebound a bit, couldn’t you get 15 HR and respectable OPS+ out of LaRoche? I say stick a fork in Nomar his is done. Or would you rather see, the Dodgers trade for Inge or Crede?

Erin: I hope the Dodgers don’t trade for Crede or Inge. Let’s say the team gives LaRoche a chance at third. Who knows what the Dodgers would have to give up to get one of those guys. I don’t know if we have any expendable parts right now.

Steve: Inge is defensively superior to LaRoche, but his price tag is too high and his offense too weak. Crede isn’t as good defensively as Inge and his offense is paltry. At best he has an average EQA which is something that LaRoche should be able to easily match if he’s allowed to play a full season.

Jon: There is simply no reason for the Dodgers to be pursuing Inge or Crede, and I think they realize that. Most of the time the Dodgers make a move, it’s not one that has been rumored.

Erin: Left field is another issue. With Andruw Jones signing, the Dodgers found themselves with a surplus of outfielders, most of which are pretty damn good. Jones will be starting in center, which means Torre must find a new home for Juan Pierre. Unfortunately, that new home is not on the bench or in another city. Pierre will start in left field and make our lives miserable, and Ethier might not even be a Dodger by the time the trade deadline rolls around. When Ethier is an All- Star somewhere else, maybe Colletti will be sorry.

Nick: As far as the outfield goes, I heard the rumblings that Jones is quite puffy coming into camp. Any concern that last year with the Braves wasn’t a one year anomaly?

Steve: Jones doesn’t worry me. I’d like to see him earn his paycheck but if last season turns out to be the new norm, his 26 home runs are still likely to lead the team and his defensive ability is a major upgrade. I’ve learned to shy away from giving weight to statistical anomalies. If we charted Jones’ career, the data from 2007 would appear as an outlier that would get tossed out. Players usually revert back to the norm.

Erin: I’m not worried about Andruw Jones either. I’d like to see him get back to his numbers from prior to last season, but as Steve said, 26 home runs would have led the team last year, and it will probably lead the team this year.

Steve: Martin had a great ‘07 but I don’t expect much improvement and wouldn’t be surprised to see him level out. The stolen bases are great, but as a catcher we can’t expect too many of them.

Erin: I agree about Russell Martin. I don’t know if there can be improvement, unless the extra days off that Torre is promising help Martin feel better than he did in the second half last season. Even without improvement, though, if he puts up numbers like he did last year, I’ll definitely take it.

Sky: I’m always amazed at how valuable even league-average production from a catcher is. He’s probably overhyped thanks to the fantasy stats, but Martin is a big plus for the Dodgers. What about the pitching?

Erin: Despite glowing reports on the rotation, I’m not feeling all that confident. Penny will no doubt be as strong as he was last year. Lowe has me a little concerned because of his age and second half performance. Kuroda is a big question mark. Until I see this guy get a few games under his belt, it’s hard for me to believe he’s going to be able to handle anything about American baseball.

Jon: I can’t say I don’t have doubts about Penny maintaining his level - not with the decline in his strikeout rate. It’s possible he’s learned to pitch to contact, as they say, but not definite. I agree Kuroda is something of a wait-and-see, but I think Erin is a little too pessimistic.

Erin: If I seem pessimistic about the season, that’s because I am. I can’t help it. Last season’s fade left a sour taste in my mouth, and I didn’t see enough changes in the off-season to make me feel that this year will be different. Seriously, though, do you see this team winning the west, or even the wild card?

Steve: I’ve become a firm believer in the every other year theory. I think the last 4 years have seen a playoff caliber team here in Los Angeles (hold the Angels jokes), but two of those years were destroyed by injuries. If the Dodgers stay healthy, which the current pace says they will, I’m very optimistic about their chances in the West this season. the key to the Dodgers’ season is the health of Rafael Furcal.

Sky: For this team to beat out all three of the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres, all three of Laroche, Ethier, and Kemp need to start and perform up to their potential.

Jon: It’s going to be a tough division. Any of four teams has a claim to being the favorite. That’s gonna make it a tense race from the start - the season has an every-game-counts feel.

Your Turn

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