skyking162

I have another guest post up about historical fielding, this time about the Yankees over at Steve Lombardi’s WasWatching blog. It’s a fun read, I think, as even a non-Yankee fan would recognize most of the names. Some of the more interesting tidbits include:

• Clete Boyer was a monster at third base, and deserved at least three Gold Glove awards.
• Don Mattingly and Bobby Richardson were extremely overrated at first base and second base, respectively. I’d love to hear some thoughts on why Mattingly doesn’t rate well.
• Wade Boggs did deserve his two Gold Gloves.
• Dave Winfield’s arm had to rival Sid Fynch’s to deserve any of his.
• Scott Brosius’ reputation as a godsend at third base in 1998 isn’t just legend talking. He was a black hole (in the good way).

If you have an interest in fielding numbers, either with today’s players or going back to 1956, it’s a lot easier than you think to find that information. This page has links to simple data tables on range, outfield throwing arms, catcher ratings, and first base scooping ability. I’m happy to answer any questions or point you in the right direction for any request.

Or, if you’re lazy, I’m happy to do the number-crunching for you. I’ll even right something up if you have a blog. Just send me an email at skyking162@gmail.com.

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I have a guest post up over at MetsGeek, a popular New York Mets blog. I used the historical fielding data available for the past fifty year to peruse the history of Met fielding. The short story? They’re a perennially awful organization. Want a more interesting story? Here you go:

In 1988, the Mets reached their nadir of -111 runs thanks to such impressive performances as Mookie Wilson (-17) and Lenny Dykstra (-7) in center field, Kevin McReynolds in left field (-29), and Darryl Strawberry in right field (-30). Even the immortal Keith Hernandez was merely average over at first base and didn’t play enough to keep Dave Magadan’s -5 run glove on the bench. The best two fielders were Tim Teufel at second base (+4 runs) and Kevin Elster at shortstop (+7 runs).

What’s amazing about that -111 number is that the ‘88 Mets won 100 games and sported a 2.91 ERA, only allowing 532 runs in 160 games. If not the fielders, who gets the credit for that level of performance? Well, a rotation of Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, Bob Ojeda, and David Cone is a great start. Then add in Shea Stadium, which suppressed run scoring by 13%, and an NL run-scoring environment of 4.15 runs per game (as opposed to today’s 4.90). If the team had fielded just a league-average defense, the Mets’ team ERA could have been .70 runs lower, at 2.21—a disgustingly anemic number. Who needs defense when you’ve got an historically great rotation?

Was there something quirky about the ‘88 Mets I don’t know about? Is there some reason fielders can look really bad when the pitching is outstanding? McReynold’s and Strawberry’s seasons rate disturbingly awful. Anyway, head on over and give it a read and leave some fun comments for the Mets’ fans.

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In an earlier look at some historical fielding stats, I posted the following information about Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, the two best fielding shortstops of the past fifty years, and concluded that both players provided similar fielding value to their teams throughout their careers. Belanger did it with a higher peak and Ozzie did it with a longer peak. Of course, you could consider their entire careers one long mountain range of fielding peaks.

                     Ozzie Smith           Mark Belanger
Best Single Season   +24 (1980, 88-90)     +34 (1975)
Best Three Seasons   +72  (24, 24, 24)     +88 (34, 27, 27)
Best Consec Five     +20.4 (1988 - 1992)   +26.2 (1974 - 1978)
Best Dozen Seasons   +19.1 (low: +13)      +20.1 (low: +8)
Career Total         +268 (#1)             +254  (#2)

There’s an easier way to make the same point, however. I simply sorted each of their fielding totals from best to worst and plotted their corresponding seasons.

Combined, these two players had ten seasons saving at least 25 runs above average, nineteen seasons saving at least 15 runs above average, and only once in 36 seasons was one of them worse than average. Adding to Belanger’s impressive totals is the fact that he played in 500 fewer games than Ozzie.

While Belanger and Ozzie had very similar careers with the glove, only one of them is in the Hall of Fame. Looking at their performances with the bat, it’s no wonder why. Ozzie’s career line is .262/.337/.328 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which translates to an 87 OPS+. Belanger has a career line of .228/.300/.280, good for a 68 OPS+. The fact that two players with such awful slugging percentages could play for almost 20 years is amazing, but Belanger is a huge step behind Ozzie with the bat. Baseball-Reference’s batting wins stat shows this comparison on a yearly basis, sorted from best to worst:

Combining offense with defense should give the complete picture of these two players’ career value:

Other than their top seasons coming out equal, Ozzie outpaces Belanger by a win and a half per season through their top nine seasons. Beyond that, Belanger was a replacement level player while Ozzie maintained a steady decline.

Finally, let’s see how these two fielding gods compare with Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, two other players who share a common bond and who I recently wrote about.

What’s surprising is that Ozzie really isn’t any better than the Tiger’s double play duo. Ozzie’s seasons all fall between Trammell’s and Whitaker’s, except for his best two, which are lower than both the other guys’. Yet Ozzie’s the one in the Hall of Fame. There must be more to making the Hall than simply accumulating a lot of career value — a statement that is perhaps more obvious than it should be. Evidently fact that Ozzie could be considered the best fielder ever counts for more than just on-field value. I won’t pass judgment on that, but I think it’s important to realize Ozzie Smith provided similar value to Trammell and Whitaker. All four players, including Belanger, deserve celebration.

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I’ve been pivot-tabling through the historical fielding data from 1957 through 2007 and found myself staring at an interesting number. Between 2001 and 2005, Luis Rivas cost the Twins 48 runs in the field compared to the average second baseman. I had always assumed Rivas was a decent fielder. After all, he certainly wasn’t a major leaguer for his bat, as his career 80 OPS+ can attest to. Evidently I’d fallen prey to a corollary of Nichols’ Law, and I wasn’t the only one. Minnesota management felt it prudent to give Rivas over 2000 plate appearances during his tenure with the Twins.

Here’s a table showing Rivas’ seasonal plate appearances, batting wins above average, fielding wins above average, and total wins above replacement. Actually — and sorry to blow the punchline — all those negative signs represent wins below replacement.

Year	PAs	Bat	Field	Value Over Rep
2000	64	-0.1	-0.6	-0.5
2001	619	-1.8	-1.6	-1.5
2002	346	-0.7	-0.6	-0.2
2003	521	-1.5	-1.4	-1.3
2004	358	-1.1	-0.8	-0.8
2005	148	-0.6	-0.3	-0.5

That’s right. In his five seasons with Minnesota, Luis Rivas was five wins worse than the bottom of the barrel. If you would like to read about Rivas’ ineptitude in further detail, I encourage you to check out any of the 102 articles Aaron Gleeman wrote on the subject.

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On Tuesday I outlined a variety of a sources for historical fielding data. Yup, just by downloading a few files, you too can have access to how many runs any fielder saved* in any season back to 1957. I spent last night looking through the data and found some interesting stuff. Read on.

(* Well, a moderately accurate guess, at least.)

Ozzie vs. Mark Belanger

Growing up, I always took it for granted that Ozzie Smith was the best fielding shortstop of all time. After all, he’s a Hall of Famer with a decidedly mediocre bat. But the more I read about baseball prior to 1988 (Kirk Gibson’s World Series homerun is the first baseball event I remember watching in real time), the more I see the name Mark Belanger. He was the Orioles’ shortstop from 1966 through 1981. Who was better? Here are a few ways to look at their accomplishments:

                     Ozzie Smith           Mark Belanger
Best Single Season   +24 (1980, 88-90)     +34 (1975)
Best Three Seasons   +72  (24, 24, 24)     +88 (34, 27, 27)
Best Consec Five     +20.4 (1988 - 1992)   +26.2 (1974 - 1978)
Best Dozen Seasons   +19.1 (low: +13)      +20.1 (low: +8)
Career Total         +268 (#1)             +254  (#2)

From that, it appears Mark Belanger was a better shortstop at his peak, but Ozzie had a longer peak. Either way, saving over 250 runs in a career is ridiculous. Luis Aparicio’s the next closest shortstop, with “only” 142 career runs saved. The active leader is Omar Vizquel at +97.

The Derek Jeter Check

Yup, he’s still a bad fielder, checking in at -96 runs over his career for an average of -8 runs per season. In fact, he’s the worst fielder in career runs using the data available. Now, he actually has had some slightly above average years, but those are outweighed by some awful streaks. Here’s every season since 1996, his first full season in the big leagues:

On the Good Side

The Yankees have definitely had their share of excellent fielders, however. Clete Boyer fits the bill, preventing an average of 20.5 runs per season from 1960 through 1964 at the the hot corner. Graig Nettles’s best five year stretch wasn’t far off, averaging 16.5 runs saved from 1973 through 1977. Bucky Dent was the best fielding Yankees shortstop of the past 50 years, averaging 16 runs saved from 1977 through 1980. Since 1987, Paul O’Neil was the only right fielder to save more than 15 runs, totaling 60 throughout his Yankee days. In fact, over his career, he accumulated the third most runs saved of any right fielder, at +91.

Best of the Best

Here are the fielders who have saved and cost their teams the most runs over their entire careers, since 1957:
1B Keith Hernandez +115 Mo Vaughn -75
2B Lou Whitaker +113 Tony Taylor -71
3B Brooks Robinson +300 (seriously!?) Bobby Bonilla -104
LF Carl Yastrzemski +114 Manny Ramirez -135
CF Paul Blair +156 Matty Alou -87
RF Tony Gwynn +118 Jay Buhner -100

In the current game, shortstops are about five runs more valuable than third basemen per season, all else being equal. That puts Robinson behind Belanger and Ozzie, but he could very well be the third most valuable fielder of the past 50 years.

Is Ken Griffey Jr. Overrated?

Junior’s troubles in the field have been heavily discussed since he moved to Cincinnati, but the zone ratings don’tt give him a lot of credit even when he was with Seattle. Here are his runs saved totals in the 90s: +3, -5, -6, -2, -5, -9, -5, -6, -3, -8. That’s remarkably consistent, but not in a good way. Was Griffey a guy who’s grace and flash made people think he was a better fielder than he really was? Or are his zone ratings missing something that the Gold Glove voters didn’t?

Top Seasons By Position

1B Rod Carew +19
2B Jose Oquendo +30
3B Brooks Robinson +32
SS Mark Belanger +34
LF Carl Yastrzemski +25
CF Kirby Puckett +27
RF Al Kaline +22
(Not that all positions are created equal.)

Hall of Fame Candidates

Jim Rice was +40 runs in left over his first dozen seasons and -28 over his final two. Tim Raines was +27 over his entire career, with no single season more than nine runs better or worse than average. Andre Dawson was +7 runs per season as a center fielder and just about average as a right fielder. Dale Murphy’s fielding record is all over the place. In center, he had seasons of +16, +18, and -21. In right, he posted a +16, but also a -25. In total, he’s about average. Alan Trammel ranks surprisingly low, at only 65 career runs saved. That’s only three ahead of Adam Everett, who’s had a much shorter career. Of course, Trammel knew how to hit, as well. Mark McGwire finished his career at +9 runs total in the field. He did have a four-year stretch from 1989 to 1992 in when he averaged +8 runs per season, but I think there are more important things to figure out about McGwire than his fielding record.

Top Active Fielders In Career Runs

Scott Rolen 3B +153
Darin Erstad CF/1B +99
Omar Vizquel SS +97
Adrian Beltre 3B +87
Placido Polanco 2B/3B +86
Jeff Cirillo 3B +76
Mark Ellis 2B +76
(Not that all positions are created equal.)

The Bottom Two

There are two fielders who are far and away the worst of the worst in career runs saved. Well, at their level, we really should be using an antonym of “saved”. Believe it or not, neither name is Manny Ramirez — he’s third worst, only ten runs behind the pack.

The silver medal goes to Dante Bichette, at a whopping 150 runs below average. And because the number one guy on the list is far worse than Bichette, I’ll spare him more comment.

Number one was 104 runs below average as a third baseman, 26 runs below average as a first baseman, 60 runs below average as a right fielder, and a few runs below average in both left and center. That’s right, Mr. Bobby Bonilla cost his team 194 runs more than the average fielder. I’m not sure if I’m more amazed at Bonilla’s complete lack of fielding ability or his NL teams’ willingness to repeatedly sign him to play the field. This dude was born to DH.

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