skyking162

Ok, let’s pretend you’re convinced that fielding really is uber-important to winning baseball games. And you’ve realized that traditional stats like errors and assists just aren’t worth your time. Where can you go to find good fielding data? After all, mainstream websites certainly don’t have it, Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA isn’t based on play-by-play data, and The Hardball Times only has zone rating data back through 2004.

Thankfully, there are some industrious individuals who have done the heavy lifting. Here’s where you can go, depending on the time frame and quality demanded:

1956 through 1986

Check out Sean Smith’s TotalZone system, which uses play-by-play data from retrosheet. Hit location data isn’t precise or complete for many of these seasons, but Sean came up with a brilliant way to address that problem. While this approach isn’t as accurate as other methods for a single season, we have the benefit of looking at these players’ entire careers, hopefully removing any flukiness from specific seasons.

1987 through 2007

You’re going to want to use a zone rating system here, and SG over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has compiled that data from the past 21 seasons. From 1987 to 2001, data is pulled from ESPN and chances are estimated based on Chris Dial’s research. From 2002 through 2007, the exact zone rating data from STATS is used. (I’ve been using combined STATS and BIS zone data for my 2007 player values. Sean Smith has the same data in a nicely formatted file.)

2000 through 2006

Ultimate Zone Rating is probably the best publicly available fielding measure. Well, at least for the seasons that MGL has made it available. UZR starts with a basic zone rating, but also adjusts for batter handedness, pitcher handedness, ballpark, and a number of other potential biases. It also doesn’t treat every ball hit into a fielder’s zone the same — fielders get more credit for hard-to-field balls and less credit for easy plays. There are two files: 2000 through 2003 and 2003 through 2006 (with partial 2007 data).

Dave Pinto’s PMR system is worth paying attention to, but nobody’s compiled all the data in a single place or converted the data into runs. Hopefully we can convince Dave to do that one of these days.

2008

Sean Smith has the only fielding projections I know of, using zone ratings from previous seasons to project 2008 performance. He knows what he’s doing, even using speed scores to help the outfielder regressions. There are two files: infielders and outfielders.

Catchers 1957 through 2006

Catchers are a whole different beast, because instead of fielding batted balls, they prevent wild pitches and help control the running game. Sean Smith has career data available, in a per-season format.

Outfield Throwing Arms 2004 through 2007

Most outfielder ratings only measure range, so you’ll need to sprinkle in some information on throwing arms. John Walsh has done some great research in this area, not just measuring assists, but how valuable the reputation of an outfielder’s arm is in keeping runners from taking an extra base.

First Basemen Scooping Ability 1985 through 2007

One aspect of a first baseman’s fielding skillset that’s almost never measured is his ability to corral errant throws, either by scooping bounced throws, stretching to the side, or being tall enough to reach high throws. Sean Smith has done some simple work on the careers of first basemen from 1985 through 2007. The methodology is explained at his blog.

Scouting Data 2003 through 2007

Do you want to know what a specific player’s strengths and weaknesses in the field are? Check out TangoTiger’s Fans Scouting Report, conducted yearly since 2003. Hopefully he’ll have each season’s data converted to runs in the near future.

There you go. Now, whenever you want to rate any position player after 1957, you know where to find the fielding data. Sure, fielding analysis isn’t perfect, but what’s available is a much better option that assuming everybody is average, counting up Gold Glove awards, or asking Steve Phillips. Oh, and remember to apply a positional adjustment when comparing two different positions.

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I’d like to nominate Milwaukee’s signing of Mike Cameron as the best free agent move of the off-season. It’s basically a one-year deal for $7 million and triggers an avalanche of changes on defense:

1. Cameron takes over in center field. For 2007, my simplistic zone rating numbers put him as slightly below average, but Dave Pinto’s system puts him slightly above average. From 2003 to 2007, UZR puts him at +15 per season. Sure, he’s aging, but +10 runs in 2008 is a reasonable expectation.

   Bill Hall has only played center field for one season, but he didn’t play it well. I’ve got him at -5 runs and Dave Pinto says more like -15. Let’s call it -10 and say Cameron is a 20-run improvement.

2. Bill Hall takes over at third base. From 2003 through 2006, UZR calls Hall +6 runs at shortstop and -5 runs at third base, per season. It’s strange for a player to be worse at third than short, but it’s probably a sample size thing. Let’s split the difference and go with exactly average.

   Ryan Braun has only played third base for one major league season, but it was awful. In only two-thirds of a season, I’ve got him at -23 runs and Dave Pinto agrees. Over a full season, I’ll go with -30 runs, showing a bit of conservatism. That makes Hall a 30-run improvement.

3. Ryan Braun takes over in left field. Braun’s main weakness at third base is a terrible throwing arm — the Fans Scouting Report shows his release and accuracy are awful. Moving to left field will make that much less important. Learning a new position isn’t easy, but the Fans think Braun’s first step and range are just fine and similar to Geoff Jenkins’. Jenkins has better hands, however. Asking Braun to be league-average in left is probably too much, but -10 runs seems reasonable.

   Gabe Gross was the default option before Cameron signed and is basically a league-average corner outfielder. Switching from Gross to Braun is a 10 run drop-off.

Ok, let’s add it all up: +20 in CF, +30 at 3B, and -10 in LF results in +40 runs overall. That’s a four win improvement just on defense. Put another way, Milwaukee pitchers can expect to see their ERAs drop by over a quarter of a run. Isn’t it amazing what you can achieve by signing good fielders and moving others to positions that fit their skills?

Cameron’s not just as asset on defense, either. He can draw walks and hit for some power. Sure, his offensive numbers were down in San Diego, but that park is brutal on hitters, reducing run scoring by 20%. Cameron’s .328 OBP and .421 SLG in 2007 translate to a .335 OBP and .443 SLG in a neutral park. 2006 was even better: .359 OBP and .486 SLG.

If the Brewers hadn’t signed Cameron, they’d be batting Gabe Gross, a career .245/.343/.410 hitter. If Cameron repeats his 2007 numbers, he’s similar to Gross offensively. If he hits like 2006, he’s 15 runs better.

Including both offense and defense, the Brewers are between 4.0 and 5.5 wins better with Mike Cameron than without him. At $4 million per win, that’s worth between $16 and $22 million on the free agent market, all for only $7 million. We can’t give all that credit to Cameron (the Brewers technically could have moved Hall and Braun without signing Cameron), but acquiring a good center fielder forces the issue. It’s a great signing and the Brewers are now back to competing with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

(By the way, you’ve got to love that a guy who’s admitted to playing baseball drunk is now a member of the Brewers.)

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Photo courtesy of pe.com

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David Dejesus is a league-average center fielder and Adrian Gonzalez is a league-average first baseman, but Dejesus is obviously a more valuable defender. Why? Just imagine Gonzalez in center — ouch. In addition to comparing each player’s fielding ability to the average performance at each position, we need to compare the difficulty of positions. That’s not an easy thing to do, but I’m pretty confident in these estimates over a full season (from Tango, see below):

Positional Adjustments (runs):
CA: +10
CF: +5
SS: +5
2B: 0
3B: 0
LF: -5
RF: -5
1B: -10
DH: -15

Catchers are the most demanding position and receive the largest positive adjustment. Moving a right fielder in to catch would not only result in more passed balls and stolen bases, but a small decrease in offensive production. Catching is physically demanding.

Center fielders and shortstops are the two other tougher-than-average positions. Second base and third base are both neutral, even though third basemen hit much better.

Corner outfielders aren’t quite as bad as first basemen, a position reserved for crappy fielders and physically brittle players. DHs are actually more like 20 runs worse than average based on defensive talent, but it’s been shown that playing DH hurts on the offensive side, too.

Stats like VORP combine hitting with positional adjustments, but ignore actual fielding ability. For a total value metric, you can choose your favorite fielding system and combine it with VORP.

One argument against VORP is that hitting has nothing to do with fielding so you shouldn’t combine the two. I sort of agree — playing center field doesn’t make you a better hitter than a first baseman, but it does make your hitting more valuable. If Vlad could handle shortstop, you’d want him there, right? Different questions require different answers.

Further reading:

Cool USSMariner comments - read them all, or just those by Dave, and especially #45
Tango’s Math: 1 and 2

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Here’s a nice anecdote for those who have yet to embrace the importance of fielding. From Bull Durham:

Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25
weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp… you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes… you get a dying quail, just one
more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium.

The difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week. What’s the difference between a good shortstop and a mediocre one? It’s got to be at least one play per week, doesn’t it? And one play per week is the difference between a hit and an out. It’s the difference between hitting .250 and .300.

So we could really just ignore fielding stats and slap 50 points onto Omar Vizquel’s batting average. Instead of a .246 hitter, he’s now a .296 hitter, even at age forty.

And it works for crappy fielders, too. Ryan Braun? He becomes a .274 hitter with a .320 OBP. Does THAT scream rookie of the year?

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The Tulo vs. Braun debate comes down to how you value their offensive and defensive contributions. For now, I want your opinion on defensive value, which has two components:

• Relative Ability: Was Braun good, average, bad, or super bad?
• Value Scale: Is “bad” -5 runs, -15 runs, or -50 runs?

Here’s what I want from you. In the comments, fill out the following ballot, first rating each listed player on their fielding talent relative to position. 1 is awful, like combining Mo Vaughn’s range with Chuck Knoblauch’s arm. 9 is awesome, like combining Juan Pierre’s speed with Vlad’s arm. Second, state how many runs above or below average, each rating point represents. For example, 7/10 might be +10 runs while 1/10 might be -50 runs. I don’t care if you have no idea. Just vote. (Copy and paste into comments.)

The ballot:

Rank 1 to 9, where 5 Is Average:
Troy Tulowitzky:
Ryan Braun:
Scott Rolen:
Albert Pujol:
Derek Jeter:
Mike Piazza:
Pudge Rodriguez:
Ryan Howard:
Ozzie Smith:
Manny Ramirez:

Runs relative to average for each rating where 0 is average:
1/9:
3/9:
5/9: 0
7/9:
9/9:

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