skyking162

Day Six - This season is the first since 1992 that San Francisco fans won’t be watching Barry Bonds in left field. Given that he hit 28 homeruns in 2007 and the team also lost Pedro Feliz’s 20 homeruns to free agency, the Giants may not come close to last year’s low total of 131. Don’t forget to check out Nick’s preview over at Home Run Derby. You can find links to all 30 team previews here.

Bold Statement

The Giants will win the fewest games in all of major league baseball.

I’m sure every Giants fan will stop reading right about now, but Brian Sabean simply hasn’t done much in his tenure as Giants GM other than make sure Barry Bonds stuck around. And Bonds, understandably, won’t be back in 2008.

Here’s a chart comparing the Giants’ actual win totals since Sabean took over in 1997 with the theoretical win totals if Bonds’ offense was replaced with a league-average player:

Year	With	Bonds	Without
1997	90	6.0	84.0
1998	89	6.7	82.3
1999	86	2.8	83.2
2000	97	6.2	90.8
2001	90	11.4	78.6
2002	95	11.4	83.6
2003	100	8.3	91.7
2004	91	11.3	79.7
2005	75	0.4	74.6
2006	76	3.6	72.4
2007	71	4.3	66.7

Two seasons stick out as impressive even without Bonds — 2000 and 2003. 1997 through 1999 are solid, but you’ve got to wonder how much of that talent was left over from the previous regime. The past four seasons are just awful and show an ugly trend. Looking at the 40-man roster, is there anybody to be excited about other than Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum? Sabean has yet to learn that old players tend to get worse, not better.

Over/Under 72 Wins

Obviously I’m taking the under. The starting rotation is perhaps above-average, but I laugh every time Barry Zito’s listed as the number one starter. I’ll admit I don’t know enough about the crop of young players moving up through the minors, but there’s a reason these prospects aren’t getting a lot of hype.

Homerun Breakout

Dan Ortmeier’s the only prospect with decent power and a starting job. He’s been a 15-homerun guy in the minors, but will already be 27 years old in 2008. Nate Shierholtz has similar power potential and is a few years younger, but doesn’t have an outfield spot open for him. Kevin Frandsen, slated to start at third base, has zero power. Given that most of the other position players are over the hill (Winn, Roberts, Molina, Durham, Aurilia), those are really the only options.

Homerun Collapse

While he’s generally underrated thanks to his good glove in center, Aaron Rowand’s moving from one of the best parks for homeruns to one of the worst. AT&T is actually fairly neutral for producing runs overall, but absolutely kills the long ball. Given that Rowand’s offensive performance in 2007 was a step above his previous levels, a mere dozen homeruns might be in the cards in 2008.

Best Chance For Hardware

It’s tough to win a Cy Young without a high win total, but Tim Lincecum could very well be the most valuable pitcher in the NL this year. I know he has to compete with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb, but he’s only 24, wasn’t overworked last season, and showed skills that would be expected to produce a 3.57 ERA. If he can lower his walk-rate, Giants fans will have a new favorite player.

Giants Round Table

Nick, Rich, and I are joined by Rob Merk from Bugs & Cranks.

Sky: What are the storylines for the Giants this year?

Rob: China Basin looks pretty bleak this year. The Giants have a handful of infielders and outfielders, a dozen or so pitchers, a couple of catchers… and Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum!!! Giants fans say there are Cy Young awards in the futures of these two studs, and they will have to pitch like it for the Giants to have a shot in hell at the playoffs.

Nick: So would you say that starting pitching is a strong point for the Giants and is there enough depth to parlay one starter into an everyday player to fill one of the infield holes?

Rob: The Giants’ pitching isn’t out of this world, but it has to be in the top five in the National League. Noah Lowry has been rumored to be on the table for White Sox’s Joe Crede, and that might not be such a bad trade. Even though Lowry is a fan favorite, when it comes down to it he pitches every fifth day, while Crede could play every day.

Sky: I’m not so much in favor of trading a pitcher for a hitter, but trading a pitcher with a 1:1 K:BB ratio for a decent hitter with an excellent glove. What about the story that isn’t getting the pub it should?

Rob: One potential bright spot who hasn’t gotten a whole lot of coverage so far is Brian Wilson. He had only six saves in 2007, but that was only because the Giants won about six games. If he turns out to be the opposite of Matt Herges, It will take a lot of pressure off of the team.

Nick: OK, I have to ask…does Barry going away change something fundamental about this team? I realize I am from the midwest, so I don’t see or hear everything that goes on with the Giants, but I always thought it looked like the Giants were run/built for Barry. So does the team concept make a return in his abscence? Please note, I am focused on the baseball part of the equation, not all of the off the field garbage.

Rob: I wouldn’t say the giants were ever built for Barry– maybe around him is better. That worked while they were good, but its been a while since that was the case. Everyone knows the horror stories: a row of his own lockers, an easy chair, players tiptoeing around him during nap time. So yes, there is a definite hope among fans that team ball will return.

Its an interesting point to bring up, though. Do people outside the Bay Area not see the Giants beyond Barry Bonds? On a less theoretical note, what about Dan Ortmeier at first base?

Rich: You got it. Thank you ESPN. I would say that most casual baseball fans have no idea who else has played for the Giants the past few years. Some might know about the young pitchers.

With the Giants’ poor record of late, coupled with the Home Run Record chase and the BALCO circus, the only thing ESPN ever reported on from the Bay was Barry Bonds. Add to the fact that the Giants were an old ballclub that couldn’t hit and there was nothing to really speak of.

Rob: Well at least those East Coast loving announcers at ESPN will get fed up with Barry and the Giants this year. Reporting on a person who isn’t there doesn’t make for many stories. His absence will mean the Giants just won’t get covered…unless they turn out to be a whirling dervish of a young ball club with 100 wins (just go with me here). Or change their name to “Boston Red Sox.” I foresee a year of baby steps, which will mean little notice from the rest of the country, but interest from fans hungry for a team with heart.

Sky: You know, to a certain extent, Barry Bonds was the only name worth covering and there were about five angles to choose from. What other players have been above average the past few years and what bright spots will there be in 2008 besides Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum? Anyone else above average?

Rob: Above average is a tough one. Randy Winn, Bengie Molina, and Omar Vizquel are probably the only players who really accomplished anything who will be around in 2008. Aaron Rowand spent last year with Philidelphia, but he brings fairly impressive numbers with him. Whether he can hold them up at SBC Park is another matter, but at least he is a somewhat proven, legitimate major league hitter.

Sky: I’ll take that as a no. Best of luck to all the Giants fans in 2008. If you know one, be nice.

Your Turn

Popularity: 14% [?]