skyking162

Joe Sheehan addressed Jime Rice’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame based on being the most feared hitter in baseball over a twelve year stretch. Sheehan agrees that Rice was having a Hall of Fame career for six seasons (’75 through ‘80), but shows that any fear over the next six was a result of bloated RBI totals and a hangover effect from the earlier seasons. Rice only finished in the top ten in slugging twice after 1980 (no fear there), but seemed to always come to the plate with runners on base (ROB):

Year ROB Rank
1981 367 1st
1982 466 7th
1983 504 2nd
1984 545 1st
1985 496 2nd
1986 514 3rd

Jim Rice voters: are you trying to elect Rice, or are you just putting Wade Boggs in a second time?

Oh, snap.

For me, the Jim Rice kicker is the huge offensive benefit he received from playing home games at Fenway Park. Oh, and playing a mediocre left field doesn’t help, either.

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Joe Posnanski also mentioned the absurdity of cherry-picking stats over a 12-year stretch:

[W]hat if I told you there was a player who, over a 12-year period, led all of baseball in home runs and RBIs? I’m talking all of baseball. Even Rice did not do that. And what if I further told you this guy played center field for much of his career, he stole more than 200 bases (31 in his best season) and hit one of the three most famous home runs in baseball history. That guy would be a SURE Hall of Famer, wouldn’t he?

Joe Carter (1984-1995 — that’s 12 years for you)
Homers (327), 1st in baseball
RBIs (1172), 1st in baseball

[Sky’s note:] And a career .306 OBP.

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I’ve been looking at some historical pitching performances and I found it helpful to translate those stats into the modern run scoring environment. I mean, a 2.50 ERA sounds really really good, but it’s less impressive when the league ERA was 3.50. So, I took ERA+ (which adjusts ERA for ballpark and league scoring) and converted it to an ERA in today’s game (league-average 4.50 ERA). I then calculated runs saved compared to replacement level (using a 5.75 ERA.)

Here are the best pitchers of the 1980s:

Pitcher		Runs	ERA*	IP
Dave Stieb	571	3.54	2328.2
Jack Morris	440	4.13	2443.2
Bob Welch	409	3.98	2082.1
Charlie Hough	408	4.02	2121.2
Bert Blyleven	408	3.98	2078.1
Fernando Valenz	404	4.05	2144.2
Nolan Ryan	395	4.05	2094
John Tudor	382	3.63	1622.2
Orel Hershiser	379	3.41	1457
Roger Clemens	359	3.24	1284.2

Dave Stieb is the runaway winner, Jack Morris comes in second and Blyleven’s in the third place pack. Notice that Roger Clemens squeaks in tenth even though he pitched only four full seasons and two half seasons in the 80s.

Now, how about the best pitchers of the 1970s:

Pitcher		Runs	ERA*	IP
Jim Palmer	752	3.28	2745
Tom Seaver	733	3.26	2652.1
Gaylord Perry	694	3.60	2905
Bert Blyleven	667	3.46	2624.2
Phil Niekro	660	3.69	2881
Steve Carlton	591	3.81	2747
Fergie Jenkins	572	3.85	2706.2
Don Sutton	512	3.95	2557.1
Nolan Ryan	484	3.98	2465
Vida Blue	471	3.98	2398.2

Look at number four on that list — Bert Blyleven. This guy was the third most valuable pitcher of the 1980s and the fourth most valuable pitcher of the 1970s. I’ll let you decide how impressive that is.

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One more thing on the Jack Morris/Bert Blyleven debate. It’s been discussed in many other places, but blows my mind every time I see it. If you adjust both pitchers’ win totals to neutralize the effect of their teams’ offenses (Morris got way more run support than Blyleven, something outside their control), you see this happen:

Jack Morris drops to 224 wins from 259.
Bert Blyleven jumps to 325 wins from 287.

That’s right, with similar run support, Blyleven would be expected to win 100 more games than Morris. Which one looks like the Hall of Famer?

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Update: Another great summary of why Morris is extremely overrated and Blyleven is a Hall of Fame pitcher.

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