skyking162

Everyone has a theory why homeruns have steadily increased over the past twenty years, and I’m sure most of them are valid to some extent:

• smaller ballparks
• steroids
• the juiced ball
• expansion

But what if the increase in homeruns is also a product of itself? That is, whatever the initial reasons for the increase, it’s now snowballed into a bigger increase than any of those reasons can explain on their own.

Why? Because the equilibrium between hitting and fielding has shifted towards hitting. Homerun hitters tend to strike out more and, obviously, hit more homeruns. With those types of hitters, there are fewer balls in play that fielders have a chance to turn into outs. Therefore, the cost of putting a bad defender on the field is less than it used to be. And if that worse fielder can take advantage of the new, homerun-friendly conditions, he can make up the gap between himself and the better fielder who can’t.

How about a picture?

Now, there obviously is significant value in turning batted balls into outs, and that loop at the bottom of the diagram won’t continue forever. The equilibrium has definitely shifted more towards hitting than it used to be. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see homeruns continue to decrease over the next few years (they were down about 10% in 2007) as teams figure out the actual value of fielding and decide they’ve shifted too much away from it. Everyone will wonder why homeruns are suddenly decreasing, and the only reason might be that GMs are choosing to value things differently.

Note: The title of this post makes reference to a great book I’m reading about a mathematical model of consciousness, I Am a Strange Loop.

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