skyking162

I’ve been looking at some historical pitching performances and I found it helpful to translate those stats into the modern run scoring environment. I mean, a 2.50 ERA sounds really really good, but it’s less impressive when the league ERA was 3.50. So, I took ERA+ (which adjusts ERA for ballpark and league scoring) and converted it to an ERA in today’s game (league-average 4.50 ERA). I then calculated runs saved compared to replacement level (using a 5.75 ERA.)

Here are the best pitchers of the 1980s:

Pitcher		Runs	ERA*	IP
Dave Stieb	571	3.54	2328.2
Jack Morris	440	4.13	2443.2
Bob Welch	409	3.98	2082.1
Charlie Hough	408	4.02	2121.2
Bert Blyleven	408	3.98	2078.1
Fernando Valenz	404	4.05	2144.2
Nolan Ryan	395	4.05	2094
John Tudor	382	3.63	1622.2
Orel Hershiser	379	3.41	1457
Roger Clemens	359	3.24	1284.2

Dave Stieb is the runaway winner, Jack Morris comes in second and Blyleven’s in the third place pack. Notice that Roger Clemens squeaks in tenth even though he pitched only four full seasons and two half seasons in the 80s.

Now, how about the best pitchers of the 1970s:

Pitcher		Runs	ERA*	IP
Jim Palmer	752	3.28	2745
Tom Seaver	733	3.26	2652.1
Gaylord Perry	694	3.60	2905
Bert Blyleven	667	3.46	2624.2
Phil Niekro	660	3.69	2881
Steve Carlton	591	3.81	2747
Fergie Jenkins	572	3.85	2706.2
Don Sutton	512	3.95	2557.1
Nolan Ryan	484	3.98	2465
Vida Blue	471	3.98	2398.2

Look at number four on that list — Bert Blyleven. This guy was the third most valuable pitcher of the 1980s and the fourth most valuable pitcher of the 1970s. I’ll let you decide how impressive that is.

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One more thing on the Jack Morris/Bert Blyleven debate. It’s been discussed in many other places, but blows my mind every time I see it. If you adjust both pitchers’ win totals to neutralize the effect of their teams’ offenses (Morris got way more run support than Blyleven, something outside their control), you see this happen:

Jack Morris drops to 224 wins from 259.
Bert Blyleven jumps to 325 wins from 287.

That’s right, with similar run support, Blyleven would be expected to win 100 more games than Morris. Which one looks like the Hall of Famer?

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Update: Another great summary of why Morris is extremely overrated and Blyleven is a Hall of Fame pitcher.

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