skyking162

If you’re a Mariners’ fan, you’ve got to be excited about seeing Erik Bedard in your rotation. He’s one of my new favorite pitchers and probably one of the top ten starters in the majors. He’s definitely a better player than Adam Jones, but I’m not sure this trade makes Seattle that much better of a team over the next year or two, let alone once Bedard is eligible for free agency. USSMariner’s beaten this horse to death, but here are the bullet points:

• The Mariners will pay Bedard $4 million in 2008 and now will likely sign a Kenny Lofton/Brad Wilkerson type to play right field. That’s another $5 million or so. Think about what the team could have bought for $9 million if they’d kept Jones — Barry Bonds? Dump Sexson for someone who’s a good first basemen? Sign or trade for a league-average pitcher?
• Brandon Morrow’s not in the rotation. He’s the guy you refused to trade for Bedard and he’s not even going to be an important piece of the puzzle?
• George Sherrill is a good reliever. Sure, losing him is only a small loss, but small losses add up.
• The 2007 team wasn’t really an 88-win team, outperforming their Pythagorean record by quite a bit. It’s probably going to take more than Bedard to make the playoffs, but it seems as though Bavasi’s done with major tweaks. If you’re going to sell the farm, don’t half-ass it.
• Once 2010 arrives, you have to pay Bedard free agent money to keep him around. Free agents are already overpriced — there’s no advantage in also giving up players for a guy you’re going to overpay. Meanwhile, Jones will likely be an above-average player making not much money for three more years. And the other prospects may be contributing as well. In two years do you want Jones + prospects + big money free agent or just a big money free agent? Yes, that’s rhetorical.
• It’s unfair to expect Bedard’s 2007 ratios over 200+ innings. Sure, he took the next step last year, but players who have career seasons don’t tend to improve again the following year. And a pitcher with an injury history is no safe bet. In general, pitchers can be expected to lose 10% of their innings year over year. The M’s may get lucky with Bedard, but they could very well be unlucky. A reasonably positive expectation would be a 3.50 ERA over 180 IP not a 2.75 ERA over 200 IP as I’ve seen other places.

Adding Bedard makes the Mariners a few wins better this year and next. But over the next six or seven years, they’re probably netting 15 to 20 fewer wins. That trade-off is only worth it if you need the few wins to get over a hump. The 2008 Mariners, even with Bedard, are only within sight of the foothills of any playoff hump.

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