skyking162

There are many valid philosophies for picking an All-Star team. I’m picking the most valuable performances by position players from the first half of 2008, because that seems to be the most popular approach. Offense matters, defense matters, and playing time matters. Oh, and those other pesky things like park effects and league differences matter, too. This is not the team that has the best chance of winning the game. For that, I’d eschew 2008 numbers in favor of pre-season projections and pick a lot of great hitters to take all the pinch-hit at-bats. Starters are listed first at each position and are notated with an (S). Here’s my AL team.

Catcher

Brian McCann (S) — Honestly, it’s tough to tell these three apart. McCann has the highest OPS+ and isn’t any worse behind the plate so he gets the nod. I’m surprised I’m picking the guy with the lowest OBP, but the power is just crazy.
Geovanni Soto — He loses the tie-breaker to McCann based on home ballpark. It’s just a bit easier to hit in Wrigley.
Russell Martin — Maybe I’m just sour because he’s the new Paul LoDuca in LA — annoyingly overrated. Except that a .396 OBP from a catcher is tough to overrate. A thirty point edge in OBP doesn’t make up for a one hundred point edge in slugging, however.

First Base

Albert Pujols (S) — Surprise! Offensively, he and Berkman are at a dead heat, both with OPS+s in the high 180s. Berkman has the advantage of fifty more plate appearances, which is worth about five runs. But Pujols’ edge in the field is at least that.
Lance Berkman — Was it last year he went a few months with a SLG around .400? Yeah, he’s gotten his power back. Mark Teixeira, Derrek Lee, and Adrian Gonzalez are in the race for the third spot, except with the first two guys there’s no need to play a third guy.

Second Base

Chase Utley (S) — One of the best hitters in the league plays second base and is a sick fielder. Love this guy.
Dan Uggla — One of the best hitters in the league plays second base and actually doesn’t suck in the field this year!

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez (S) — There are at least five NL shortstops having better years than the best of the AL. The advanced metrics show Hanley to be league-average at short so far in 2008 — if that holds for the second half the Marlins might not lose ground to the Phillies.
Jose Reyes — He’s actually been two steps better offensively than in 2006 even though his slash stats are exactly the same, thanks to a drop in league-wide offense. Yunel Escobar deserves a mention here thanks to his excellent glove and competent bat — the Braves aren’t winning with pitching this year.

Third Base

Chipper Jones (S) — It’s amazing how one bad week shuts everybody up about the .400 thing — like it was ever a realistic possibility.
David Wright — He’s hit better than Aramis Ramirez in a tougher ballpark and played better defense. Is there a better trifecta of position players on one team than Wright, Reyes, and Carlos Beltran?

Outfield

I discussed the outfield a few days ago. The highlights are that Ryan Braun’s .320 OBP puts him about tenth on the list for most valuable NL outfielder, Brian Giles plays mad D and is underrated by PETCO, and Beltran and Ankiel deserve mad props for playing well in center field.
Pat Burrell (S) — Ranks second behind Holliday in OBP and is first in SLG. He’s played league-average defense in right. And hell, he’s even been clutch.
Carlos Beltran (S) — Compared to an average-fielding corner outfielder, Beltran’s almost three wins more valuable defensively over a full season. That makes up for his relative lack of power this year.
Matt Holliday (S) — No, he’s not as good as his raw stats. But you can’t judge his talent based on his road stats, either — everyone hits worse on the road, his road parks don’t include Coors, and there seems to be something to the whole Coors Hangover thing. Oh, and you’ve got to love a slugger who can also play the field.
Brian Giles — Most underrated player in the National League.
Rick Ankiel — I predicted 10-15 homeruns this year. Oops.
Jason Bay — He’s the best of all the corner outfield guys who aren’t defensive assets.

Designated Hitter

Ryan Ludwick (S) — Uh, how does this get picked for the National League? I guess I’m going with the best hitter yet to make the team, which would be Ryan Ludwick.

What do you think? Am I off my rocker?

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Not to pick on ESPN, because everyone out there choosing All-Stars has a similar list, but here are the outfield lineups their experts came up with for the Mid-Summer classic:

AL
Josh Hamilton
JD Drew
Carlos Quentin

NL
Ryan Braun
Pat Burrell
Ryan Ludwick

Granted, all six of those players are having great years, but there are clearly some better choices, especially in the National League. Let’s start with Ryan Braun, who I’m clearly not afraid to pick on. The good news is that he’s a much better fielder out in left (league average!) than he was at third base, but the bad news is that his .317 on-base percentage is lower than Bengie Molina’s. Even 20 homeruns won’t make up for that.

Instead of Braun, I’d go with Matt Holliday. Sure, his power is down (”only” 12 homeruns so far), but his slash line of .339/.425/.560 can only be touched by Pat Burrell. Adjusting for ballpark still leaves Holliday with a 150 OPS+, exactly the same as he posted in last year’s MVP campaign. Oh and he’s an above-average corner outfielder.

The other NL outfielder I have a problem with is Ryan Ludwick, who’s had about 50 PAs fewer than other full-timers, has an OBP of “only” .366, and hasn’t played well in the field. He’s definitely no Ryan Braun, but there are few more deserving options:

• Brian Giles — Yes, seriously. Sure, his slugging percentage is only .439, but thanks to a .399 OBP and playing home games in PETCO park he sports a 132 OPS+. Kosuke Fukudome, who has a very similar slash line but in a slight hitters’ park, has an OPS+ of 114. Giles has also flashed some sick leather, rating as a dozen runs better than average. He won’t win any homerun derbies, but Brian Giles is probably having the most underrated All-Star season of anyone at any position.
• Carlos Beltran — Sure, he’s got the same OBP as Ludwick and trails by .100 points of SLG. But he’s an excellent baserunner, has fifty more plate appearances, and plays Gold Glove center field. Compared to left, center is five runs more valuable over half a season. Then add in the fact that Beltran is ten runs better than the average center fielder and you’ve got a huge swing in value.
• Jason Bay — Start with Ryan Ludwick. Keep the OPS+. Add 60 plate appearances. Seems like you’ve now got something better, right? That’s Jason Bay.

The only reason I hope the starting NL outfield is Braun, Ludwick, and Burrell is that I would love to see one of them play center. And I usually root fo rthe American League.

Speaking of the American League, how about their starting outfield? I really don’t have any qualms about Josh Hamilton and JD Drew making the the cut, but Carlos Quentin is quite overrated. I’d take a few outfielders over him, but the one who clearly deserves the spot is Grady Sizemore. Like Carlos Beltran in the NL, Sizemore’s a superior center fielder whose offensive value is obscured by a low batting average. Quentin’s main claim to fame is his power, but Sizemore’s slugging percentage is actually sixteen points higher. With Sizemore’s OBP being only ten points lower, you’ve basically got the same hitter with strikingly better defensive value, since Quentin is a lousy corner outfielder

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Finally, here’s a totally unrelated thought. If Lance Berkman is voted the NL’s first baseman and Albert Pujols is voted the NL’s designated hitter, can they switch roles for the actual game? I can understand how the honor of being the starting first baseman should go to Berkman’s better 2008 performance, but if both guys are in the lineup anyway, shouldn’t you put Pujols’ glove in the field? I guess we’ll see how much these managers actually care about winning.

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