skyking162

I’ll admit it, this is a mail-it-in preview. We had no Orioles’ bloggers interested in a round table and I had an eight-hour fantasy auction yesterday where I tried my best not to bid on any Orioles not named Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, or George Sherrill (Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis were keepers). And I think I overbid on Sherrill. Here are some quick-hit Oriole thoughts before I turn this into an Around The Web column:

• Luke Scott isn’t being talked about enough. Yes, he’s old (already 30), but he’s hit 28 homeruns in 663 major league at-bats and sports a .273/.366/.516 career line. That’s better than Nick Markakis‘ .296/.357/.469 line. I know, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
• The starting rotation is overrated. Daniel Cabrera might still have the potential to be an ace, but a 10% shot isn’t worth much. He is who he is. Jeremie Guthrie was lucky with his BABIP last year and should regress to a league-average ERA. Adam Loewen is all potential, and the rest of the options are not pretty: John Leicester, Matt Albers (isn’t that a Studio 60 character?), and Hayden Penn who seems to be moving backwards, not forwards.
• The bullpen looks solid with Jamie Walker, George Sherrill, and Greg Aquino, but playing high-scoring games is a great way to unleverage the impact of a good bullpen. Just Baltimore being Baltimore.
• I actually like this team a little better than most people, but there’s no way they’re better than the Blue Jays or Rays, who are both at least .500 teams. Given that the under/over is 65 wins, I think I’ll take the over.

Around The Web

Bashing on ignorant sports writers who try to bash sabermetrics isn’t as fun as it used to be, but with Dusty Baker, a local hack, and FireJoeMorgan teaming up, there’s bound to be some hilarity. Even if you think FJM has gotten old, you should read this post. Here’s another good take on the Cincinnati issue, in the form of an open letter to Dusty Baker on behalf of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Joe Posnanski wrote a great article about the stupidity of the anti-stathead argument. Point one is that those folks often counter numbers-oriented arguments with… more numbers. They just stick with their own. Point two is that traditional numbers might seem simpler, but they’re actually anything but straight-forward. As Joe writes, “Sometimes, the anti-stathead crowd doesn’t realize something that’s worth realizing: The reason so many people keep working on new statistics is because the stats we grew up with are STUPID. And plenty confusing too.” Traditionalists are just choosing to stay inside their comfort zone.

The Brian Bannister statgeek story is getting a wider audience, this time over at Yahoo.

Brian, from my favorite NFL analysis website, offers an explanation as to why maximizing your score in betting pools doesn’t necessarily maximize your chances of winning. Think about that when filling out your March Madness brackets in a week.

Speaking of well-written explanations of sports-related statistics, check out Sal’s write-up of regression and why it’s important. (Hat tip: everyone on the web.)

The Cardinals are giving fans a chance to find their next big draft success. Power to the people!

Joe P. Sheehan has yet another great post using Pitch f/x data. He breaks the strike zone up into smaller pieces and found the linear weights value of the average pitch to each location, including balls and strikes.

Wow, there certainly is a theme to today’s links. Some teams continue to take the traditional route and think Dusty Baker is their savior. But some organizations have embraced changing the way things are done based on all the data now available.

Some fans look at the Rays and Pirates and think it’s the same-old plan (finish last, draft top players, repeat). But some fans notice the Rays’ fielding is much improved and smart contracts have been handed out to talented young players and cheap veterans, or that the Pirates are doing things differently.

Some sports writers continue to whine for the good old days and wonder why print media is going extinct. But some writers embrace the blog format and are reaching a wider audience than ever.

I apologize for the preaching, but I’d love for this level of ignorance not to be around in another ten years. I have no problem with your favorite player being David Eckstein. Just please realize he’s not that good.

Ok, how about some (mostly) non-baseball links…

From longtime reader and non-baseball fan Ari comes this story of the mathematical study of Joba Chamberlain’s arch-enemy: the midge.

This project might sound a bit anal, but it’s probably more productive than anything I’ve done since graduating from college.

Oh, and this article is amusing enough on its own, but reading the comments left by readers who couldn’t figure out that it’s satire is a whole afternoon’s worth of fun.

Your Turn

Popularity: 20% [?]

If you’re a Mariners’ fan, you’ve got to be excited about seeing Erik Bedard in your rotation. He’s one of my new favorite pitchers and probably one of the top ten starters in the majors. He’s definitely a better player than Adam Jones, but I’m not sure this trade makes Seattle that much better of a team over the next year or two, let alone once Bedard is eligible for free agency. USSMariner’s beaten this horse to death, but here are the bullet points:

• The Mariners will pay Bedard $4 million in 2008 and now will likely sign a Kenny Lofton/Brad Wilkerson type to play right field. That’s another $5 million or so. Think about what the team could have bought for $9 million if they’d kept Jones — Barry Bonds? Dump Sexson for someone who’s a good first basemen? Sign or trade for a league-average pitcher?
• Brandon Morrow’s not in the rotation. He’s the guy you refused to trade for Bedard and he’s not even going to be an important piece of the puzzle?
• George Sherrill is a good reliever. Sure, losing him is only a small loss, but small losses add up.
• The 2007 team wasn’t really an 88-win team, outperforming their Pythagorean record by quite a bit. It’s probably going to take more than Bedard to make the playoffs, but it seems as though Bavasi’s done with major tweaks. If you’re going to sell the farm, don’t half-ass it.
• Once 2010 arrives, you have to pay Bedard free agent money to keep him around. Free agents are already overpriced — there’s no advantage in also giving up players for a guy you’re going to overpay. Meanwhile, Jones will likely be an above-average player making not much money for three more years. And the other prospects may be contributing as well. In two years do you want Jones + prospects + big money free agent or just a big money free agent? Yes, that’s rhetorical.
• It’s unfair to expect Bedard’s 2007 ratios over 200+ innings. Sure, he took the next step last year, but players who have career seasons don’t tend to improve again the following year. And a pitcher with an injury history is no safe bet. In general, pitchers can be expected to lose 10% of their innings year over year. The M’s may get lucky with Bedard, but they could very well be unlucky. A reasonably positive expectation would be a 3.50 ERA over 180 IP not a 2.75 ERA over 200 IP as I’ve seen other places.

Adding Bedard makes the Mariners a few wins better this year and next. But over the next six or seven years, they’re probably netting 15 to 20 fewer wins. That trade-off is only worth it if you need the few wins to get over a hump. The 2008 Mariners, even with Bedard, are only within sight of the foothills of any playoff hump.

Popularity: 10% [?]