skyking162

More fun with the toy statistic. Here are the top pitchers of the 2000s, as measured by runs prevented. ERA+ (which adjusts for park and league) is converted to an actual ERA in today’s environment (4.50 average ERA) and compared to replacement level over the number of innings each pitcher has thrown.

For example, Pedro’s ERA+ of 166 means his adjusted ERA is 66% better than average, or 2.71. That’s 3.04 runs per nine innings better than replacement level (I’m using 5.75). Over 1314 innings, that’s 444 runs prevented by Pedro. Pedro is good. All these guys are good. Commentary follows.

Player		Runs	ERA*	IP
Randy Johnson	468	3.13	1605.1
Pedro Martinez	444	2.71	1314.1
Tim Hudson	415	3.60	1739
Curt Schilling	413	3.38	1569.1
Roy Oswalt	409	3.15	1413.1
Greg Maddux	388	3.75	1745.2
Roger Clemens	382	3.38	1454.1
Mark Buehrle	373	3.69	1629
Johan Santana	372	3.19	1308.2
Barry Zito	367	3.72	1627
Tom Glavine	351	3.88	1690.1
Roy Halladay	347	3.52	1398.1
Javier Vazquez	341	3.98	1735.1
Derek Lowe	322	3.72	1428
Andy Pettitte	319	3.81	1483.1
Mike Mussina	318	3.95	1590.1
Brandon Webb	318	3.13	1089
Carlos Zambrano	303	3.46	1193.1
C.C. Sabathia	292	3.88	1406.1
Bartolo Colon	277	4.05	1472.1
Livan Hernandez	273	4.41	1837.2
Jason Schmidt	272	3.78	1242.2
John Smoltz	271	3.19	952.2
Freddy Garcia	270	4.13	1500.1
Jarrod Washburn	263	4.05	1398.1
Brad Radke	263	4.02	1366
Tim Wakefield	259	4.13	1436.1
Kenny Rogers	257	4.13	1427.2
Jeff Suppan	257	4.33	1626.1
Jamie Moyer	256	4.33	1622
Kelvim Escobar	253	3.88	1217.1
Brad Penny	252	4.09	1365.2

Johan Santana’s the obvious favorite for pitcher of the decade come 2009, but Roy Oswalt is another quality bet.

For the record, Roger Clemens ranks 7th in the 2000s, 2nd in the 90s, and 10th in the 80s.

Speaking of the 80s, Dave Stieb led the decade with 571 runs prevented, but second place was Jack Morris with a pedestrian 440 total. We’ll probably see a dozen pitchers beat that mark this decade. Run scoring is up, but the pitchers are as talented as ever.

Surprises: Hudson in third, Halladay only 11th, Brandon Webbs stellar adjusted ERA, and Jarrod Washburn. Really, Jarrod Washburn?

Other decades: 70s & 80s, 90s

Popularity: 3% [?]

My method gives pitchers credit for preventing runs. A lower ERA and more innings both contribute. If you like math, the equation is (repERA - ERA) * IP

I use B-Ref’s ERA+ to adjust for both ballpark and run environment (a 3.00 ERA is much more impressive today than in the 60s, for example) and converted it into what a pitcher’s ERA would be in today’s environment of a 4.50 league-average ERA. Why? Because it’s the context I’m used to.

Player		Runs	ERA*	IP
Greg Maddux	791	2.78	2394.2
Roger Clemens	675	2.96	2177.2
Randy Johnson	581	3.21	2063.1
Tom Glavine	560	3.49	2228
Kevin Brown	549	3.52	2211.1
David Cone	536	3.36	2017
John Smoltz	505	3.63	2142.1
Kevin Appier	480	3.44	1867.2
Chuck Finley	476	3.75	2144
Mike Mussina	451	3.46	1772
Pedro Martinez	433	2.88	1359.1
Curt Schilling	398	3.60	1668.1
Andy Benes	364	4.17	2068.1
David Wells	350	4.09	1897
Alex Fernandez	349	3.91	1708
Dennis Martinez	347	3.69	1514.2
Scott Erickson	337	4.25	2013.2
Jimmy Key	333	3.72	1476.2
Jose Rijo	324	3.13	1111
Ken Hill	322	4.02	1673.1
Jack McDowell	321	4.05	1702.1
Charles Nagy	318	4.13	1766.1
Pat Hentgen	305	3.98	1555.2
Kenny Rogers	300	4.09	1627.2
Jeff Fassero	299	3.91	1465.1

Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens were just unbelievable. Their adjusted ERAs just obliterate what any of the top pitchers of the 80s achieved, and Maddux’s innings pitched total comes close to what Jim Palmer and Tom Seaver posted in the 70s, when starters need much fewer pitches per inning.

Jose Rijo and Pedro Martinez were each kings for half of the 90s.

Honestly, by comparing that list to the top pitchers of the 70s and 80s, I’m inclined to call the 90s a Golden Age of Pitching. And here’s the 2000’s.

Popularity: 6% [?]

I’m sick of reading about how the Twins rotation will be awful once they trade Santana. Sure, they’re losing Carlos Silva and they traded Matt Garza. But they do have the deepest crop of pitching prospects and they’re bound to receive one of the best (either Philip Hughes or Clay Buchholtz) in return for Santana. Plus, if they do trade Santana, there will be a bunch of free money they could spend on another league-average starter. There are many teams out there wishing they could go into 2007 with this rotation:

Philip Hughes
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Boof Bonser
Glen Perkins
Francisco Liriano
Average Veteran Guy

Every single one of those pitchers can be expected to post a league-average 4.50 ERA, and one or two should have breakout seasons. No, there’s not a lot of experience and the chance of injury is greater than with older guys. But come on. That’s a solidly above-average rotation for peanuts. So shut up about it.

Popularity: 4% [?]

Dave Pinto just started his series on 2007 fielding using his play-by-play system (Probabilistic Model of Range — PMR). Today he posted rating of the fielding behind every pitcher with at least 300 balls in play. This is a great opportunity to discuss another aspect of fielding that’s too often ignored: its ability to cloud our opinions of pitchers.

Here are the top ten most fortunate starting pitchers in 2007, as ranked by the actual percentage of balls in play turned into outs compared to what you’d expect an average defense to turn into outs given the spray of batted balls. A higher number represents a pitcher received better fielding.

Pitcher 	Team 	Ratio
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	108.0
Jeremy Guthrie	Bal	105.2
Dustin McGowan	Tor	104.8
Sean Marshall	ChC	104.5
Roger Clemens	NYY	104.4
Brian Bannister	KC	104.4
Jarrod Washburn	Sea	104.2
Mike Bacsik	Was	104.1
Tom Glavine	NYM	104.0

I’m not saying these numbers are perfect. After all, PMR ranks the Yankees as the best fielding team in 2007. I’m open to considering that possibility, but no other system thinks they were much better than average.

But doesn’t it make sense that the breakthrough performances from Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Bannister were aided by help from their fielders? Most of the pitchers on that list had better seasons than were expected. Just maybe they pitched similarly to their skills in the past, but enjoyed deflated ERAs thanks to the guys behind them.

As a reference point, Wang’s fielders turned 33 extra balls in play into outs than expected. At .8 runs each, that’s 26 fewer runs charged to Wang, vaulting him into undeserved Cy Young consideration.

How about the least fortunate starters of 2007? These are the guys who received the least help from their fielders, according to PMR:

Pitcher 	Team 	Ratio
Joe Kennedy	Oak	96.8
Scott Kazmir	TB	96.6
Chris Capuano	Mil	96.5
Robinson Tejeda	Tex	96.2
David Wells	SD	96.0
David Bush	Mil	95.7
Zach Duke	Pit	95.2
Jose Contreras	CWS	95.1
Kip Wells	StL	94.9
Scott Olsen	Fla	94.5

This is a pretty good list of pitchers who were considered disappointments in 2007. Chris Capuano, David Wells, David Bush, Jose Contreras, and Scott Olsen especially stick out. For Capuano and Bush, two Milwaukee hurlers, the awful fielding reputations of Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and Prince Fielder are certainly taking their toll.

I know I harp on it a lot (and I’ll continue to do so), but fielding isn’t just a footnote to a great season by a hitter or a pitcher. Not only do many position players deserve significant credit or blame for their fielding abilities, pitchers deserve to have the performance of their fielders separated from their own contributions.

Kansas City would be best served by exploring a trade for Brian Bannister, while his value is high. If teams are willling to pay $8 million per season for league-average starters, what would they be willing to give up for a guy making the minimum who appears to be a top of the rotation pitcher?

A smart team would ignore Bannister and instead make a move for Jose Contreras, a guy who’s shown solid talent in the past and is currently underrated thanks to an awful Chicago defense.

Popularity: 5% [?]