skyking162

Update: In this article I used $2.5 million per win for free agents. It’s actually more like $4 million, meaning Lowell was “worth” $14 million in 2007 and is “worth” about $10 million per season going forward. Of course, when you consider that overall teams spend $2 million per marginal win, free agents are a huge rip-off compared to slaves or arbitration-eligible players. If Lowell signs for $10-12 million a season, that’s not an awful free agent signing. But I’d rather have David Wright. (Hat tip to ekogan at BTF.)

Until last night, the biggest free agent name available to play third base was Mike Lowell. Boston wants him back, Philadalphia yearns for him, and now the Yankees may make him an offer. Lowell had a great offensive season, capped off by winning the World Series MVP. He has a reputation as a good fielder and is a popular guy in the clubhouse. But I’m still going to say it:

Signing Mike Lowell as a free agent this off-season will probably be a mistake. Why? Four reasons:

1. Lowell’s offensive performance in 2007 was well above his established level of performance and can fully be explained by a flukishly high batting average on balls in play. Mike Lowell’s highest batting average before 2007 was .293 in 2004. This year he hit .324. His career high BABIP was .299 in 2004. This year it was .337. Removing those 38 points yields rate stats exactly in line with his career levels:

   Season   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
   2007    .324  .378  .501  .879
   Career  .285  .343  .461  .804
   Diff    .039  .035  .040  .075

   Now, it’s perfectly possible that Dave Magadan, Mr. Cage-Rate, helped Lowell make a real improvement. But rather than think that improvement didn’t effect his isolated power, walk-rate, or anything other than his batting average on balls in play, the more straight forward assumption is that he got a little lucky. Smart teams don’t pay for luck.

   Oh, and if you think any teams might pay for his high RBI total, I’ll point out Lowell’s .358 AVG with runners in scoring position and the fact that he was able to hit behind Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez. Again, neither of those factors are evidence of a repeatable skill. Well, the second one’s repeatable if he stays in Boston, but you know what I mean.

2. Fenway park is a good place to hit and especially rewards hitters who can hit flyball doubles off the Green Monster in left field. If a non-Boston team signs Lowell, he won’t have that advantage any more. Lowell’s always been known as a doubles hitter, spanking at least 35 of them in seven of his eight full seasons. Fenway has a doubles park factor of 1.35, meaning it increases doubles by 35% overall. Yes, Lowell posted similar numbers in Florida, a pitcher’s park, but it’s likely Fenway is covering up some declining skills. (Then again, he does have more doubles on the road than at home during his two seasons with Boston.)
3. Lowell will be 34 years old during the 2008 season. Every free agent signing is a risk, but older players carry more risk. I’m worried about a small letdown in 2008, and then there’s 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 to worry about, too. The list of 37 year old players who hit like their 33 year old selves is a short one. Again, it’s perfectly possible for Lowell to maintain his current pace, but it’s not something to count on or pay for.
4. Fielding was not actually a strength of Lowell’s this past season and is a skill that clearly declines with age. Two fielding systems based on separate sets of fielding data peg him around average for a third baseman: one is at -6 runs and one is at +5 runs. UZR, the best publicly available fielding measure, puts him at -6, +9, +1, +20, and -7 runs from 2003 through the first half of 2007. You can’t be more solidly average defensively than an average-fielding third baseman.

All that being said, how much is Mike Lowell actually worth? Well, in 2007 he was 3.5 wins better than a replacement player, .337 batting average and all. Assuming free agents sign for about $2.5 million per win on top of the half million league minimum, that puts Lowell as a $9 million player, right at his 2007 Red Sox salary. If you adjust his offensive production down because of his fluky BABIP, he’s more like a $7 to $8 million player. From what’s been reported so far, it seems like two years at $12 million per season is the starting point for his services — definitely not a bargain. If negotiations move towards $13 to $14 million over four years, write your senator and urge him to start federal hearings.

Popularity: 10% [?]

No, I’m not going to celebrate players who used steroids and then lied to Congress. Rafael Palmeiro famously won the Gold Glove at first base in 1999 while only fielding the position in 28 games.

In Palmeiro’s honor, I give you the best defensive players in each league, with a minimum of 28 games played at their position.

Fielding runs are from Justin’s +/- system. The first number is runs saved pro-rated to 150 games, the second is actual runs saved.

1B — Doug Mientkiewicz NYY (+47, +11)
1B — Rich Aurilia SFG (+52, +8)
Dougie’s a no-hit first-baseman still worthy of a roster spot — he better be a good fielder. But why not carry a no-hit shortstop as a late-inning replacement? That’s what the Giants did.

2B — Alex Cora BOS (+27, +5)
2B — Chase Utley PHI (+27, +21)
Who doesn’t like Alex Cora? He should be a late-inning staple during Boston’s playoff run. Chase Utley’s the best second-baseman on a per-game basis and he managed to play 85% of a season. He’s my Phillies’ MVP.

SS — John McDonald TOR (+31, +18)
SS — Adam Everett HOU (+39, +15)
Toronto definitely knows something about fielding that other teams don’t, and I don’t just mean the fact that Johnny McD can flash some leather. Adam Everett is as close as we have to a 2007 Ozzie Smith. Losing him for over half a season killed the Astros.

3B — Troy Glaus TOR (+27, +16)
3B — Craig Counsell MIL (+42, +9)
Troy Glaus is a slick-fielding, power-hitting third-baseman in a hitter’s park. Nice move, Ricciardi. Craig Counsell also wins the Tim Tuefel award for best fielder with a ridiculous batting stance.

LF — Johnny Damon NYY (+49, +9)
LF — Matt Diaz ATL (+40, +18)
Sure, these fielding numbers don’t include the effects of throwing like a you-know-what, but there’s still some serious defensive value in having a good center-fielder playing left field. Honestly, I know nothing about Matt Diaz other than the fact that he obviously doesn’t let Andruw Jones cover for him.

CF — Ichiro Suzuki SEA (+35, +33)
CF — Andruw Jones ATL (+35, +31)
Now that’s impressive. Both of these guys played a full season and totally dominated the position. Ichiro deserves some MVP McLovin’ (can I make that a verb?).

RF — Marlon Byrd TEX (+22, +5)
RF — Jayson Werth PHI (+34, +10)
Evidently it helps to have a strangely-placed “Y” in your name if you play right field. The second-best right-fielder in the Nationanl League was also a Phillie (Philly? Fill-e?) — Shane Victorino.

Popularity: 3% [?]

I know I’ve mentioned Pat Neshek’s blog before, but I just officially added it to the list of links in the sidebar. Because I’ve seen him pitch a couple times at Rochester, his quick rise to the majors, and his quirky delivery, Neshek’s become a late-season addition to my man-crush team.

In 2006, Neshek pitched 60 innings for AAA Rochester, averaging about 2 innings per appearance as the Red Wings’ closer. He had a 1.90 ERA and a sick 87/14 K/BB ratio.

Since being called up to the Twins in early July, Neshek’s thrown 32.7 innings with a low 2.48 ERA and a whopping 47 strikeouts compared to only 6 walks. If he’s shown any weakness, it’s been allowing 6 HRs already, as compared with only 7 in his 60 minor league innings.

Many people credit Neshek’s quirky delivery for his success. I don’t know how true that is, but it’s certainly a quirky delivery. It reminds me of Jeff Nelson’s delivery in that they both have low release points, but aren’t throwing underhand. Neshek appears to the batter as if he’s going to release as a submarine pitcher, but throws a hitch in his delivery and ends up releasing the ball with his hand above his elbow.

Anyway, check out his blow. It’s by far the best I’ve seen by a major league and reveals a lot of details involved with breaking through into The Show. And if you’re into collecting signed hockey and baseball cards, you’ll be in heaven.

Popularity: 3% [?]

The Richmond Braves, Atlanta’s AAA team, have a secondbasemen named Jonathan Shuerholz. Who’s the Atlanta GM again? The most intriguing part of the story was watching Shuerholz lower his early season batting average to .050. I gotta figure he needs to hit at least .150 before he gets called up to the Show.

Popularity: 2% [?]

… is taking steroids. He’s not this good. Seven homeruns in a week and a half? Sure, buddy.

Popularity: 2% [?]