skyking162

AL EAST

Yankees 94 - The offense is awesome, the rotation is at least league-average, and the bullpen combo of Joba Chamberlain (anyone else enjoy pronouncing his first name Joe-Bay?) and Mariano Rivera is top-notch. It’s possible that a few injuries knock this team down into the high 80s in terms of wins, but 100 wins are just as likely.
Red Sox 89 - Manny will be better, but Lowell and Beckett should be worse. Everyone’s older, which isn’t a good thing for most of the team. And The Nation’s new favorite son, Jacoby Ellsbury, won’t be much better than Coco right away. This is a good team, but one that should turn over significantly in the next year or two.
Rays 85 - Yes, I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. I think Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs are just as good as their chances of finishing below .500. The reasons have been beaten to death, but more people need to pay attention. You’ll notice the biggest difference from 2007 in the team’s ERA, but the newly improved defense will deserve as much credit as the pitchers.
Blue Jays 82 - I love the fielding, Aaron Hill, and the rotation’s potential. But David Eckstein, the catching situation, and aging vets Frank Thomas, Matt Stairs, and Scott Rolen will likely disappoint.
Orioles 68 - This is a bad team, and will get worse when Brian Roberts is traded. Why they didn’t insist Adam Everett be included in the Tejada deal is beyond me. Putting this generation’s Ozzie Smith behind a young pitching staff would really help their growth. On the plus side, Luke Scott’s primed for a few very good offensive seasons.

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland 90 - Is anyone predicting them to win fewer than 90 games or more than 92? CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona didn’t exactly have flukey 2007 seasons, but expecting exact repeats in 2008 isn’t realistic. Travis Hafner needs to get back to this pre-2007 form to make this team a lock for the playoffs.
Tigers 89 - I promise I’m not overreacting to the first six games, but the Detroit offense just isn’t as good as people think. They won’t score 900 runs, let alone 1000. Why not? Because Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Placido Polanco performed way over their heads last year. And Jacque Jones (although I like him better than most) and Ivan Rodriguez are weak links. A mediocre pitching staff (this is the year Bonderman puts it all together, however) combined with a spectacular offense is a division winner. A mediocre pitching staff combined with a very good offense is not.
Royals 78 - I alluded to the Royals as a third-place team in my 30 in 30 preview, so I’ll stick to my guns here. Pitching and fielding were (relative) strengths in 2007, but I actually like the offense to be their main strength in 2008. Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon figure to rebound, and Billy Butler is a beast.
White Sox 77 - Adding Nick Swisher was the only significant move of the off-season (Alexei Ramirez may make me look foolish in six months), but the players already on the team are much better than they showed in 2007. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko lead the list of candidates likely to rebound according to PrOPS. Fielding is still a problem, and Javier Vazquez will return to his career levels.
Twins 70 - Yes, I love the young pitching and I think Francisco Liriano will be a Cy Young candidate. But the offense is poor, and some of the young pitchers will be busts. It’s an admitted rebuilding year, so no long term worries.

AL WEST

Angels 88 - This team will be the worst of any division winner in the AL or NL. Howie Kendrick is a great bet for a breakout season, and is also a very good fielder.
Mariners 83 - If they do make a run for the division, it will be because of an Anaheim collapse. The offense is stale, with Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, and Adrian Beltre leading the way — not exactly intimidating. The fielding is bad, although not horrible. And the starting rotation behind Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez is not good. But those two guys are why this team won’t post a win total in the mid 70s. Bedard is awesome and Felix has no ceiling. (I don’t have to mention anything about overrating the M’s based on 2007’s run differential, do I?)
A’s 78 - The A’s are my darkhorse candidate as a team winning their division out of nowhere. Rich Harden might stay healthy and they might have a handful of young guys bust onto the scene a year early. But I also like trying Duchscherer in the rotation and Billy Beane’s ability to find actually talent in the scrap heap of available veterans. For example, Emil Brown’s bat is a touch below average and he’s a good fielder. That being said, there aren’t a lot of bright spots expected for 2008.
Rangers 76 - Note to Tom Hicks: Seriously, you need to find some starters, we’re not kidding. However, trading Edinson Volquez for a guy who might end up being listed in the same category as Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore isn’t a bad thing. And I do like the bullpen, Ben Broussard, and Kason Gabbard.

Popularity: 6% [?]

I really don’t like trying to predict the World Series winner, because the playoffs really are huge a crapshoot. Even if you attempt to account for sh*t that does work in the playoffs (like a stud reliever, strikeout pitchers, and good fielders), you might as well still flip a coin. (I’ll eventually show that the Red Sox, my favorite, will only win 18% of the time, compared to an average of 12.5% for all playoff teams.)

Straight Pythagorean wins would rank the teams like this:
101 Boston
97 New York
92 Cleveland
90 Anaheim
90 Colorad0
87 Philadelphia
86 Chicago
79 Arizona

Yes, even without assuming the National League is less talented than the American League, there isn’t an NL team with a run differential better than an AL team. Of course, the NL automatically gets a team in the World Series (which is slightly more fair than the U.S. always qualifying for the Little League World Series.) It’s interesting that Colorado could be considered the NL favorite, even though they only had about a 10% chance of making the playoffs at one point last night. Can their team MVP be Trevor Hoffman?

Here’s how I see the first round going:

Red Sox over Angels — The Red Sox were the best AL team in preventing runs, yielding only 4.1 per game. The Angels scored 5.1 a game. Papelbon, Okajima, and the top three starters will pitch more frequently than during the regular season, so let’s say the Angels score 4.4 runs per game. On the flip side, Boston scored 5.4 runs per game while the Angels allowed 4.5 runs per game. I think the Angels get the same benefit as the Sox from being able to throw their stud closer more often and eliminating the bottom two starters from the rotation, so we’ll give the Red Sox 4.85 runs per game. A little Pythag shows Boston should win 55% of the games, giving them a 58% chance to win the series.

Yankees over Indians — With the Yankees on offense… a lot of runs will be scored. Ok, seriously, now — they scored 6.0 runs per game while the Indians gave up 4.3. I really like the Indians’ bullpen (even Borowski, whose peripherals were better than his ERA implies) and their CC-Fausto punch is the best in the playoffs, so I’ll split the difference with a slight weighting toward the Indians: 5.0. For the Indians, they scored 5.0 runs per game while the Yankees gave up 4.8. Wang and Pettitte aren’t totally dominant, and I’m not sure I like the Yankees bullpen outside of Joba. Let’s say the Indians score 4.9 runs per game. The algebra says the Yankees should win 51% of the games and take the series 53% of the time.

Cubs over Diamondbacks — The Cubs score 4.6 runs per game and the DBs give up 4.5. Let’s pretend Arizona does know a secret and they’ll hold the Cubs to 4.5 runs per game. With the Diamondbacks at the plate, they score 4.4 runs per game while the Cubs give up 4.3. Again, given the magic, I’ll say the DBs score 4.4 per game. The math says the Cubbies win 52% of the games and take the series 54% of the time (even accounting for Arizona’s old family recipe for clutchiness.)

Rockies over Phillies — Phillies score 5.5 and allow 5.1, while the Rockies score 5.3 and allow 4.7. Yes, these ballparks will produce some runs. I don’t see either team as having an especially strong front of the rotation or a knock-out bullpen, so I’m splitting the difference down the midde: 5.1 runs per game for the Phillies and 5.2 for the Rockies. Colorado’s expected to win 51% of the games and the series 52% of the time.

Assuming I’m right, I’ve got the next round winners as Colorado (58% over the Cubs) and Boston (52% over the Yankees). Between those teams, I’ve got the Sox winning winning it all 60% of the time. Of course, the probability of the Red Sox, to actually win all three rounds is only 18%.

Finally, it’s your turn. I’m pretty sure the last 17 paragraphs are considered statistical bias, but go ahead and pick one team to win the World Series. Leave a comment if you want bragging rights in a month. (Poll closes at noon on Wednesady.)

Popularity: 3% [?]

Mark it down. I’m now a bandwagon Tampa Bay Devil Rays fan. Looking back, all the signs were there — my pre-season predictions gave the Rays their best-ever record and I drafted seven DRays for my AL-only fantasy team* (Shields, Reyes, Niemann, Upton, Baldelli, Gomes, and Pena.) 2008’s only going to bring more success. Here’s how:

Improve the defense - In 2007 the starting rotation has a 5.18 ERA, but with a 4.21 FIP — that’s third-best in the AL. Tampa Bay fielders are costing the team almost a run per game. Ouch. In 2008 the outfielders will stay the same, with Crawford, Upton, and Young playing almost every day. There’s some hope that Upton will continue to improve, as he’s new to the outfield, but the real changes will have to come in the infield. Carlos Pena’s reputed to be a good fielder and he’s the starter at 1B until Scott Borus takes him on a fantastic free agent voyage. 2B and SS are the positions to look at. Here’s the plan for 2B, from DRaysBay:

[T]he Rays have asked third baseman Akinori Iwamura to work on playing second base this winter. The team had the move in mind from the time they acquired Iwamura who’s familiarity with the Nippon Pro League third base translates better to an American second base based on less reactionary more range play.

Iwamura has a reputation as a good fielder, but that hasn’t showed up in the advanced fielding metrics this year. If his skills do fit better with 2B, that’s great. Who will play third? Evan Longoria, a top prospect who hit .300/.400/.520 between AA and AAA this season.

At shortstop, Brendan Harris’ 102 OPS+ is good, but his fielding is atrocious. Here’s a place where the Rays need to seek help outside the organization. The free agent class is strong in the fielding department, but can’t hit: Eckstein, Uribe, Vizquel, Izturis, etc. I’d settle for Eckstein, although his price will likely be higher than his value. They have pieces to trade, either an extra OF/DH like Baldelli or Gomes, a starting pitcher prospect, or even Harris himself. Who could they possibly target as a replacement? Edgar Renteria, who the Braves might like to replace with Escobar? Ryan Theriot? Jack Wilson? Bill Hall?

With these changes, the fielding still doesn’t look great. But it’s better, and the offense actually improves a bit.

Find a bullpen - The 2007 DRays bullpen posted a 6.85 ERA, giving up almost 1.5 HRs per 9 innings. Yes, some blame goes to the fielders, but jeez. Part of the problem is that the relievers were asked to throw so many innings (35%). Joe Maddon had to dip into the dregs of the pen way too often. Better fielding should allow the starters to last a little longer. But the team also needs to take Earl Weaver’s advice and put the starting pitching prospects who don’t make the rotation in the bullpen. Even just bringing that bullpen ERA down to 5.00 would be worth five wins (and 4.50 isn’t out of the question).

Sign Barry Bonds - Would he take one year at $10 million to DH? It’s worth it. This move would really make trading Gomes or Baldelli (or DYoung) for a shortstop possible. Barry’s still a monster at the plate and would love hitting in Tampa Bay. Is Barry smart enough to realize that the DRays actually are close to contending for a playoff spot? If so, he might take this chance. Tampa Bay seems willing to spend the money on the right fit. Do it.

Put it all together - Move the pieces around to improve fielding. Enjoy better production at DH, 3B, 2B, and SS. Watch the natural improvement of young hitters. Let the young pitching prospects make the impact that the hitters had this year. Finally trust that the bullpen will only occasionally blow a game.

2007 RS/G: 4.85
2008 RS/G: 5.45

2007 RA/G: 5.80
2008 RA/G: 5.00

2007 Wins: 67
2008 Wins: 88

I don’t think any of those 2008 forecasts are hyperbolic wishcasting. I could even see the DRays giving up fewer than 5 runs per game if the young pitchers really take off. But ok, it’s your turn, go ahead and call me crazy.

———————-

*Buying 7 DRays evidently wasn’t a bad strategy as I finished in first and could potentially keep five of these guys for next year. Maybe I can work out a trade for three more DRays and have an all-Tampa Bay keeper list. That would definitely be baseball with a hint of lime.

Popularity: 4% [?]

MLB Trade Rumors has an excellent series of articles summarizing teams’ contractual obligations heading into 2007. The Giants’ outlook was just posted and it took me by surprise.

My opinion of Brian Sabean isn’t very high. To me, he’s chased past-prime veterans with expensive contract, eschewed first-round draft picks to save pocket change, and generally avoided any opportunity to make his team younger.

But today I realized that the franchise only has two significantly bad contracts on the books (Benitez at $7 mil and Matt Morris at $9 mil). If the team’s spending stays consistent, they’ve got $48 mil left to fill out the roster. Hot damn! Maybe Sabean was riding out Bonds’ good years with expensive veterans (although I would have done it differently) and purposely planned all along to purge significant contracts in 2007.

The Giants’ rotation is quite young and talented. If Sabean spends wisely (cringe), the Giants could challenge the Diamondbacks next year.

By the way, if you agree with me that the MLB Trade Rumors site is a pain to read, just add the RSS feed to your favorite feed reader.

Popularity: 3% [?]

Better late than never, right?

Keepers

Johan Santana - $21; Johan’s a steal at this price. But it hurts a little bit to know you traded a $6 Liriano to get him.
Alex Rodriguez - $40; Considering that Manny, Sheffield, and Ichiro went for about $40, keeping ARod was a good idea. Unfortunately, Tom’s really going to get nailed in 2006 by ARod’s decreased fan loyalty and his lack of being a True Yankee?. Yes, our league uses fan loyalty and True Yankee-ness as categories. Brady cleans up in that last one.
Coco Crisp - $10; I’m a big Coco believer. Let’s hope he doesn’t get injured.
Michael Young - $5; Too bad All-Star stats don’t count.
Joe Mauer - $5; At the end of last year I had the choice of keeping a $9 Victor Martinez or a $5 Joe mauer. I chose Victor — story of my season. Actually, no, the story of my season was buying Esteban Loiza, Jeff Weaver, Matt Clement, Bruce Chen, and Shawn Chacon to anchor my pitching staff. Isn’t it cool how “anchor” is its own antonym?
Jorge Cantu - $6; In my mind, Julio Lugo and Jorge Cantu are two manifestations of the same soul. Now that Lugo’s playing for the Dodgers I’m going to actually figure this thing out.
Chris Ray - $5; Yes, everyone saw this coming.
Bobby Jenks - $5; Gotta give Ozzie credit for trusting his young pitchers.

For what it’s worth, I had Tom’s keepers at about the third/fourth best list in the league.

The Auction

Milton Bradley - $22; Hey, I’ve got an Oakland fetish, too. Mine took the form of Loiaza and Crosby this year. Going forward, Bradley’s looking a lot better.
Reggie Sanders - $17; Can’t believe he wasn’t traded at the deadline.
Trot Nixon - $14; This guy just can’t stay healthy enough for 400 PAs, can he?
Aaron Hill - $9; I know nothing about Aaron Hill.
David Delluci - $7; I guess it was too much to hope that the Rangers would have been granted an exception to play five outfielders at once.
Jason Michaels - $5; He’s still taking walks.
Mark Teahen - $1; One of the really good keepers for next year.
Josh Bard - $1; Yup.
Andy Phillips - $1; Brady trade bait.

AJ Burnett - $22; I’m looking for a solid second half.
Jose Contreras - $15; Yay loss-less streaks! Yay inane “statistics”!
Paul Byrd - $10; He’s like Carlos Silva with a little more testosterone.
Scott Baker - $9; I thought all Twins pitching prospects are supposed to win Cy Youngs?
Neal Cotts - $3; Lighting it up.
Dan Miceli - $3; Let’s just forget this one.

Sure, hindsight’s 20/20, but I really see this team finishing in the middle of the pack, perhaps just slightly in the bottom half. It’s solid, but doesn’t have quite enough star power to make a run at the top of the leaderboard.

Popularity: 2% [?]