skyking162

Let’s call the recent lag in the HRBL team previews a “dramatic pause”. You were reading up on teams 4 through 10, right? And remember, I correctly predicted my team will win. Now, without further ado, third place!

The Keepers

BJ Ryan - $5; Should pitch more innings that the traditional closer and be in line for a few extra wins. Add in the fact that he’s a damn good pitcher, and Ryan could be the class of AL relievers this year.
Vlad Guerrero - $31; How can a player who’s so exciting to watch become boring fantasy-wise. We know the numbers he’s going to put up.
Paul Konerko - $10; How many teams has Konerko been a part of in this league?
Jeremy Bonderman - $3; I was re-reading my blog posts from a few years ago at the old site and noticed I was really high on Bonderman two years ago. I think he’s now overrated, but $3 for a guy with a lot of upside is a steal.
Mark Ellis - $1; Bo-ring. And good.
Bob Wickman - $5; There are some players who I give the same predictions for year after year. Wickman is done; he won’t last the season. Just like last year.
Erik Bedard - $5; Uh oh, Orioles pitcher. Actually, I know Bedard thanks to picking him for my Strat-O-Matic team last year after his crazy start to the season. Solid pitcher.
Daniel Cabrera - $5; I didn’t know much about this Orioles pitcher under his amazing 10BB/9K performance earlier this year. That about sums it up.

Frank spent $63 to keep $116 worth of value, according to PECOTA, a keeper list that put him middle of the pack heading into the auction. Rototimes liked the list a little better, pegging it at $270. Overall it’s not very exciting, but I have a feeling it will be effective.

The Auction

Vernon Wells - $31; Stealing Tom’s man-crush, eh?
Richie “Get My” Sexson - $30; I was big on Sexson going into this year and was pissed I didn’t go $31. Now, I consider myself fortunate.
Eric Chavez - $30; Another 3B I really wanted, along with Blalock and Glaus. All three are having big years. My 3B is Michael Cuddyer.
Jason Varitek - $23; Do you really deserve to be team captain when you can’t catch a knuckleball? I mean, Josh Bard was cut for the same offense.
Raul Ibanez - $20; Pass.
Magglio Ordonez - $15; Magglio was one of my favorite players about seven years ago when he first busted out. Yes, because I happened to pick him in the later rounds of my first fantasy draft. A resurgance is one of the reasons I picked the Tigers to finish second in their division this year.
Rocco Baldelli - $14; Oh, you’re a funny guy, Frank. I bet you can get him for under $10 next year…
Mark Grdzlnk - $6; Starter = plus. For Kansas City = negative. He once led the league in hits for Montreal.
Frank Thomas - $2; Mmm, I like Frank Thomas this year. Sure we all know his days of hitting for a decent average are gone, but the power’s still there. He’ll hobble around all year and miss some time, but who cares. It’s $2.
Yuniesky Betancourt - $1; Does fielding count for anything?
Kelly Stinnett - $1; He’s not in the NL?

Brad Radke - $8; He gone blown himself up. I’m not surprised.
Kenny Rogers. - $7; Here’s another guy I give the same prediction for every year. Kenny, you’re old. You’re not a good pitcher. Stop pretending you are.
Rafael Betancourt - $5; I almost went $6 on this one because of his precarious next-in-line position to Wickman.
Fernando Cabrera - $3; Wickman insurance policy number two.

Excellent draft for Frank. He spent big bucks on a few players, only overpaying by a few dollars. And then except for Balldelli, and to an extent Ibanez, he finished out his team with unexciting players that went for cheaper than they should have. Don’t expect many breakouts seasons from the hitters, but almost every player should outperform expectations. Pitching could be an issue.

The Outlook

PECOTA ($251) doesn’t like this team as much as Rototimes ($286), but Rototimes loves it. Spending 80% of your budget on hitting leaves work to be done on the pitching end of things, but that plays into one of Frank’s strengths. Well, one of his claimed strengths.

I’m going to side with Rototimes on this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if a renewed passion for fantasy baseball gets Frank to the top this year.

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Fourth! Only two more to go! (I already wrote up my first place finish.) For the rest, use the HRBL Predictions category.

The Keepers

Johnny Damon - $17; I traded Damon for Kotsay (and proceeded to cut Kotsay) solely because I thought Damon was the worse keeper option. That might turn out to be the wrong analysis, but if it does prove true, I’m going to have a lot of fun lording it over the Bradester.
Brian Roberts - $4; This is the guy I thought I could get for Damon. Love him.
Hideki Matsui - $12; I do like Matsui and he’s a very good player. He’s just not quite as good as Yankee-lovers think. Like 8 out of 10 instead of 9 out of 10. Now I dissed him.
John Lackey - $6; Can I take some credit for drafting Lackey two years ago at this price?
Chad Orvella - $5; Different people enjoy fantasy baseball for different reasons. Trying to predict when a crappy team will replace its crappy “proven” closer with a younger, better option is not one of those reasons for me. Hey Tampa, there’s a reason you could sign Dan Micel and it’s not because he really likes the beach.
Jason Giambi - $10; I have a lot of respect for the way Giambi has been able to turn his play around over the past year. He didn’t outplay Neifi Perez until August last year, and then suddenly he was vintage JG. Looks like he’s even added hitting for average back to his skill set this year.
Jake Westbrook - $4; Solid solid pitcher. His ERA will drop from last year.
Ben Molina - $5; Ugh, being the best Molina is like being the hottest octogenarian.

Brady’s keeper list was about as average as you can get. PECOTA pegs it at $257 of value and Rototimes says $261. With only two Yankees on the list, he’s got his work cut out for him in the auction in order to fill the requisite 8-Yankee quota.

The Auction

Gary Sheffield - $39; Solid price considering Manny went for a buck more. Sheffield’s more of a post-steroids injury risk, but the higher AVG and SB ten-spot kick up his value.
Derek Jeter - $30; This is wrong. There’s no way Jeter should go for a reasonable price in a fantasy draft, especially to the Yankee-lover. Tejada went for $39. WTF?
Ramon Hernandez - $24; Really the only truly dumb purchase on this whole team. I like Ramon Hernandez. I think he’ll rebound from a couple depressed years hitting in San Diego. But $24? Whoa.
Aaron F’n Boone - $11; Yes, Boone was sucking it up last year. But he hadn’t played in over a year and was dealing with a repaired knee. Considering his OPS rose from .450 pre-June15 to .750 after June 15, I like this guy. The only risk is if he gets off to a cold start and Cleveland decides to give Marte a chance.
Shannon Stewart - $9; Established ho-hum guys like Stewart have a much higher probability of earning over their mean value, but not much higher. They also have a higher probability of crashing and burning. Therefore, most of the time $9 will turn out to be a good deal. I’m hoping he crashes and burns.
Travis Lee - $7; If I can accept the theory that decreased mental pressure increases performance about anyone, Lee’s the guy. Let’s see if he can do it again.
Alex Gonzalez - $3; Three bucks for the starting Boston shortstop who’s got 20 HR power? Really? Just $3
Matt Lawton - $2; Oops.
Hee-Seop Choi - $1; Starting 1B against righties by June.

Randy Johnson - $33; He’s too brittle and old to have a full-blown classic Unit year, but I’m buying a 200 IP, 200 SO, 3.25 ERA performance.
Mike Mussina - $15; Rebound year. It’s going to be so good that looking back people will think the Moose was on steroids in 2006.
Rodrigo Lopez - $8: I need Frank to remind me which young Orioles pitcher Lopez is. Just based on them collectively, I think $8 is a little high, but there’s always a chance for a bustout year.
Ambriox Burgos - $5; Let’s say he closes half the year and the Royals produce save opportunities in 3/4 of their victories. That puts Burgos at what, 15 saves? If Burgos only pitched those 15 innings, this would be a steal. 50 additional IP at his ratios is NOT a good thing.
Ted Lilly - $3; Why does he make me think of Jimmy Key?
Jaret Wright - $1; Somebody took Debbie Clemens with their last pick a few years ago. I’ve been thinking about it and no, I don’t think Wright is quite that ridiculous.

Brady pulled out the wallet on a bunch of high profile guys while not overpaying for any of them (plus Ramon Hernandez) and also managed to find his fair share of underpriced filler. Additionally, five more Yankees and three more ex-Yankees found spots on his roster. Brady’s hit/pitch split was rather traditional he but ended up with a little extra pitching value. $254 spent to buy $268 worth of value overall.

The Outlook

Like Bobby Abreu, Brady’s team will be good not because he did anything amazingly well (besides bidding on Yankees), but because he did everything above-average. Solid keepers, didn’t overspend on big money players, found deals in the endgame, and left himself flexibility to add players at any position without cutting a significant name. There are a couple other very good teams in the league, but Brady should be right there. And it really hurts to write that. I may have to switch from bully-style older brother to overly-proud older brother. Bastard.

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We’re cracking the top half of the league, as projected by PECOTA and Rototimes. The rest of the reviews can be found in the HRBL Predictions category.

The Keepers

Grady Sizemore - $1; A young starting outfielder with big potential? Yeah, $1’s a good price.
Tadahito Iguchi - $13; Not a lot of value here, but Iguchi’s a solid player and turned out much better than the over-hyped Kaz Matsui.
Rich Harden - $9; He keeps improving, but at a very slow pace. I guess that’s better than hitting your peak early and then disappointing. Could this be his 3.25 ERA, 200 IP year?
Kevin Mench - $1; Big Head continues to overachieve. Hopefully he can get a full allotment of ABs in that crowded Texas outfield.
Robinson Cano - $2; I’m not a Cano fan. I know everybody loves his swing, including Don Mattingly, but to me he’s just blah with not a lot of upside. Perhaps Yankee fans are just trying to recreate the young 2B they had in the Soriano years.
Shea Hillenbrand - $16; Ugh, one of the worst keeper choice, I think. All of Shea’s value is locked up in his AVG. Without a good one all his stats will suffer and he could lose playing time in the crowded Toronto 1B/3B/DH/OF rotation.
Carlos Guillen - $3; Is this the same Carlos Guillen that had the Mariners thinking Pokey Reese really wasn’t so bad? Yes, I think it is. Boy have things changed.
Kelvim Escobar - $8; Everyone thinks this is his huge breakout year. Um, why? He’s solid right now. At age 30.

PECOTA puts Jeff’s keeper right about average — $263, but Rototimes is a much bigger fan, projecting a final team value of $279 after filling out the roster with inflated prices.

The Auction

Manny Ramirez - $40; He’d be worth this price if he hits .320, but those days are behind him. Given that everyone had to overspend at some point in the draft, Manny aint’ a bad point to do it.
Jim Thome - $25; Big risk here. Things are looking good so far, but with injury issues we’ll be holding our breath all year.
Mike Sweeney - $20; In my mind, Mike Sweeney doesn’t age. He’s always been 32 and will always be 32. He should have chosen to be frozen at age 27.
Placido Polanco - $18; Polanco with an everyday job? What a novel idea. Nobody was arguing for that five years ago. (Yes, that’s sarcastic.)
Jorge Posada - $17; Down down down the slippery slope of catcher decline.
Jason Kendall - $12; Jeff loves to fill both his catcher spots with solid catchers. The jury’s still deciding if Kendall qualifies.
Joey Gathright - $10; Steals. That’s what Gathright is good for. Will he play, though?
Juan Rivera - $2; Hey, nice price.

CC Sabathia - $23; $20 Pitcher Club. You know, the group of $20 pitchers that will be outperformed by the likes of Javier Vazquez and…
Curt Schilling - $18; This price seemed a lot riskier before the season. Now, I think everyone would have gone $30. Well done, Jeffrey.
Tim Wakefield - $11; Will Tim Wakefield be the Julio Franco of pitchers? No-hitter at age 47, perhaps?
Carlos Silva - $6; He can’t survive pitching like this, can he? Great article by David Appelman posted at Baseball Analysts about pitching styles. Silva is a freak! He throws everything in the strike zone and nobody misses anything. Fortunately, contact never seems to result in homeruns. Nobody else seems to be able to do that, except maybe…
Jamie Moyer - $2; Think Moyer understands pitching at all?
Joel Pineiro - $1; BOOM.
Jason Frasor - $1; A much better $1 option than any starting pitcher for this price.

Jeff spent the big bucks on Manny, threw $40 at two top pitchers, then was willing to fill out the lineup with a bunch of end-game fliers. Let’s call it a modified stars-and-scrubs. Above-average-and-scrubs, perhaps? This team has a pretty typical 180/80 hitting/pitching split, but I’m a much bigger fan of the offense. I just don’t see Schilling and Harden making up for the potentially disastrous Silva/Moyer/Pineiro. A lack of saves in this league isn’t deadly, but it’s not productive, either.

The Outlook

PECOTA puts this team sixth with $240 in value. And again, Rototimes loves the offensive firepower, and counters with $293 in value — the best of any team. The offense should do well in all non-SB categories, but the pitching needs to be at least league-average to put this team in the top 3. I don’t see that happening as is, but with some changes, it’s possible. I think this team’s a lock for the top half, but I’m not sure it can leap over enough of the teams I see ahead of it. I’ll stick with these projection systems and say fifth place.

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As always, you can find the rest of the HRBL previews by clicking here. That’s all the intro you get.

The Keepers

Mark Teixeira - $33; Money in the bank, but I don’t see him improving much over the past two years. Not that I’m complaining.
David Ortiz - $18; Two years ago I wondered if $18 was too much for a DH-only with part of a really good year under his belt. Um, no, it wasn’t.
Chone Figgins - $11; I hate players like Figgins — he’s not that good, but runs like crazy and manages to play enough to earn $30. Although, maybe I just hate Figgins because he’s not on my team.
Huston Street - $8; Absolutely love this guy. Part of the Top Four with Mo, KRod, and Nathan.
Felix Hernandez - $7; I don’t buy into the hype 100%, but as I tell my AP Stats students, 95% is still pretty significant.
Melvin Mora - $9; Remember the good old days when the Mets couldn’t decide if they wanted to use Mora’s weak bat and poor fielding at shortstop or centerfield? Evidently playing third base makes you an All-Star.
Jermaine Dye - $3; One of those guys who rides the over-/under-rated roller coaster year after year. I think his car’s just starting the downslope.
Mike McDougal - $2; Yes, Kansas City will let him close whenever he can pitch. But he’s never healthy, he’s a bad pitcher, and it’s not like the Royals have that many opportunities anyway. Then again, all he needs is like 6 saves to be worth $2.

The Girls had the fourth best keeper list according to PECOTA ($278) and the best according to power-loving Rototimes ($301). While Tex isn’t a stud at that price, the crazy inflation in our league would have pushed him well beyond $40, making him a relative bargain.

The Auction

Ivan Rodriguez - $24; Even with catcher inflation, this is a big price. Thanks to steroid testing we’re at least spared the annoying accusational chatter about IRod gaining twenty pounds this off-season.
Luis Castillo - $19; Just doesn’t run anymore on those bad knees. The turf in the Metrodome should help more of his grounders get through the infield, but he’ll also leg out fewer cheapies. We know he won’t knock anyone in, but do the Twins have anyone besides Mauer and Morneau that’ll knock Castillo home?
Emil Brown - $16; If I didn’t overspend for six outfielders I’d really make fun of this pick.
Orlando Cabrera - $15; Another of the all-around players, and evidence that having five tools doesn’t make you an uber-stud. Possibley underrated for the first time.
Mike Lowell - $11; He’s toast. Unless he only plays against lefties or befriends the Green Monster. Before the season started I had him projected to be the small half of a 3B platoon with Youkilis.
Kelly Shoppach - $3; Playing behind Victor doesn’t bode well, but Shoppach’s got nice upside. A trade would really help his value.
Jason Kubel - $1; Players come back from big injuries tend to disappoint at first, then surprise you when you’ve started focusing elsewhere. For a buck he’s a nice risk and great keeper candidate.
Jay Payton - $1; With the injury potential of the A’s outfielders, Payton should get 300 at-bats this year.
Nick Markakis - $1; Who? That’s what I said before I realized Markakis was a much better bet than Corey Patterson. Now I pretend that I’ve been a Markakis fan since his Little League days.

Freddy Garcia - $25; Whoa! See all my previous $20 pitcher comments.
Joe Blanton - $17; Yikes! I see potential for growth, but his luck on ball-in-play and converting events into runs last year will hide that growth.
Todd Jones - $15; Closers with porn mustaches just aren’t reliable. I ran the numbers, and Todd Jones has a .79 correlation with suckage.
John Garland - $15; Oh, you crazy girls. Is this the fantasy version of resigning the players that won you a championship at inflated prices just to keep the fans happy?
Brandon McCarthy - $3; I can’t believe I’m reminding people of this, but McCarthy was my Cy Young sleeper last year. Definitely like him.
Casey Fossum - $1; For a buck, why not. Way better than Jeremy Affeldt types. Or is there just one Jeremy Affeldt? (The world would be better off if there was.)

The Aftermath

PECOTA puts the Girls with the seventh most value ($237), but Rototimes comes back and says $283, good for third. While they need some good breaks from pseudo-closers and young players, that can be a good thing. You’ll know early if you’ve got a shot or need to re-load for next year, and if you do catch the breaks, it’ll be big time. My own guess is that the Girls will finish fifth.

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We’ve officially moved up into the middle of the pack. Click here for the rest of the reviews. This is Kevin’s first year in the league, so I’ll take it easy on him. (Until I mention that he left $26 on the table.)

The Keepers

Scott Podsednik - $28; The power outage and mediocre AVG prevent him from achieving uber-stud status, but $28 is right at value. Right-at-value is worthwhile with more valuable keepers.
Joe Nathan - $18; One of the best, if not the best AL fantasy closer. At a discount.
Travis Hafner - $2; One of the best keepers in the entire league. This is disgusting. At least it’s the last year of his contract.
Alexis Rios - $3; Perpetual prospect should get a shot at playing full time this year.
Brian Anderson - $1; At the other end of the spectrum from the Twins/Jason Bartlett we’ve got the Dubya-Sox/Brian Anderson. This is like giving the keys to the car to your 14-year old son. It should be fun, but might get ugly.
Dan Johnson - $1; I’m always wary of young guys who do better in their rookie year than anybody was expecting. They’re great stories, but so many seem to regress the next year. He’s an A, so I’m rooting for him.
Juan Uribe - $1; Ugly, ugly, ugly. I would have kep thim at this price, but I’m glad I didn’t have to.
Cliff Lee - $4; Overrated. And that’s a shame because he used to be underrated. Lee had a solid year last year, but the wins were flukey. Look for a 4.00 ERA this year and 13 wins.

Kevin had one of the best keeper lists thanks to his retired predecessor. $138 of value for $58 according to PECOTA, which translates into an expected team value of $286.

The Auction

Troy Glaus - $31; I wanted him. This price is expensive, but I wish I’d pulled the trigger.
Hank Blalock - $27; I wanted him. This price is expensive, but I wish I’d pulled the trigger. PECOTA thinks he’s going to become the star he was assumed to be three years ago.
Corey Patterson - $23; I wanted him. This price is expensive, and I’m glad I didn’t go any higher.
Kenji Johjima - $20; Ah, yes, another over-inflated catcher (price, not size). Don’t know why, but this might be one that earns his price.
Luis Matos - $7; If you’ve got 5 OFs, can they all play full time? Has there been a year in the past ten when Baltimore didn’t have this problem? And by problem I mean “lacking quality outfielders” not “havign too many good outfielders.”
Gerald Laird - $3; I’m a big fan and I bet he ends up at least splitting time with Barajas this season.
Ramon Vazquez - $1; This was part one of Kevin’s evil plan to…
Brandon Phillips - $1; …kill Ron Belliard and hope for the best.

Eddie Guardado - $24; I’m guessing he survives two-thirds of the season.
Kris Benson - $11; I’m sick of hearing about the Mazzone Magic. But should I feel guilty about also believing in it? Crazy prediction time: sub-3.75 ERA for Benson this year.
Chien-Ming Wang - $7; Um, no.
Jon Papelbon - $7; Ding ding ding! You just won the lottery.
Vicente Padilla - $6; One good year for Padilla about twelve years ago. And now he’s pitching in Texas? I feel bad for his family.
Dustin Hermanson - $5; Ok, really now. Let’s just chalk this one up to a brain fart. My first year playing fantasy baseball I drafted two catchers that were out for the season with injuries. We all have these moments.
Gil Meche - $3; Why? Because Glendon Rusch wasn’t available? Yikes.

Hmm, $26 more would have bought another solid pitcher, a stick in the middle infield, and a couple of upgrades. Saves don’t appear to be a problem, but the Meche/Wang/Padilla combo could permanently destroy the ratios by June. If that’s the case, then this team might as well go with more scrub starters and try to beat the pack in K’s and Wins. As it is, those categories aren’t looking so hot. The offense looks quite solid, with speed to spare and quality power. Lack of depth makes the Run and RBI categories questionable.

The Outlook

Kevin has a very strong foundation, but will need to fill in a bunch of cracks to finish in the top third. Those starters need to pull through and be joined by a second wave. The middle infield needs replacing (already underway). Can a key trade of a closer half-way through the year do enough? I’m thinking not and it’ll be a struggle to crack the top 5.

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