skyking162

AL EAST

Yankees 94 - The offense is awesome, the rotation is at least league-average, and the bullpen combo of Joba Chamberlain (anyone else enjoy pronouncing his first name Joe-Bay?) and Mariano Rivera is top-notch. It’s possible that a few injuries knock this team down into the high 80s in terms of wins, but 100 wins are just as likely.
Red Sox 89 - Manny will be better, but Lowell and Beckett should be worse. Everyone’s older, which isn’t a good thing for most of the team. And The Nation’s new favorite son, Jacoby Ellsbury, won’t be much better than Coco right away. This is a good team, but one that should turn over significantly in the next year or two.
Rays 85 - Yes, I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. I think Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs are just as good as their chances of finishing below .500. The reasons have been beaten to death, but more people need to pay attention. You’ll notice the biggest difference from 2007 in the team’s ERA, but the newly improved defense will deserve as much credit as the pitchers.
Blue Jays 82 - I love the fielding, Aaron Hill, and the rotation’s potential. But David Eckstein, the catching situation, and aging vets Frank Thomas, Matt Stairs, and Scott Rolen will likely disappoint.
Orioles 68 - This is a bad team, and will get worse when Brian Roberts is traded. Why they didn’t insist Adam Everett be included in the Tejada deal is beyond me. Putting this generation’s Ozzie Smith behind a young pitching staff would really help their growth. On the plus side, Luke Scott’s primed for a few very good offensive seasons.

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland 90 - Is anyone predicting them to win fewer than 90 games or more than 92? CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona didn’t exactly have flukey 2007 seasons, but expecting exact repeats in 2008 isn’t realistic. Travis Hafner needs to get back to this pre-2007 form to make this team a lock for the playoffs.
Tigers 89 - I promise I’m not overreacting to the first six games, but the Detroit offense just isn’t as good as people think. They won’t score 900 runs, let alone 1000. Why not? Because Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Placido Polanco performed way over their heads last year. And Jacque Jones (although I like him better than most) and Ivan Rodriguez are weak links. A mediocre pitching staff (this is the year Bonderman puts it all together, however) combined with a spectacular offense is a division winner. A mediocre pitching staff combined with a very good offense is not.
Royals 78 - I alluded to the Royals as a third-place team in my 30 in 30 preview, so I’ll stick to my guns here. Pitching and fielding were (relative) strengths in 2007, but I actually like the offense to be their main strength in 2008. Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon figure to rebound, and Billy Butler is a beast.
White Sox 77 - Adding Nick Swisher was the only significant move of the off-season (Alexei Ramirez may make me look foolish in six months), but the players already on the team are much better than they showed in 2007. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko lead the list of candidates likely to rebound according to PrOPS. Fielding is still a problem, and Javier Vazquez will return to his career levels.
Twins 70 - Yes, I love the young pitching and I think Francisco Liriano will be a Cy Young candidate. But the offense is poor, and some of the young pitchers will be busts. It’s an admitted rebuilding year, so no long term worries.

AL WEST

Angels 88 - This team will be the worst of any division winner in the AL or NL. Howie Kendrick is a great bet for a breakout season, and is also a very good fielder.
Mariners 83 - If they do make a run for the division, it will be because of an Anaheim collapse. The offense is stale, with Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, and Adrian Beltre leading the way — not exactly intimidating. The fielding is bad, although not horrible. And the starting rotation behind Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez is not good. But those two guys are why this team won’t post a win total in the mid 70s. Bedard is awesome and Felix has no ceiling. (I don’t have to mention anything about overrating the M’s based on 2007’s run differential, do I?)
A’s 78 - The A’s are my darkhorse candidate as a team winning their division out of nowhere. Rich Harden might stay healthy and they might have a handful of young guys bust onto the scene a year early. But I also like trying Duchscherer in the rotation and Billy Beane’s ability to find actually talent in the scrap heap of available veterans. For example, Emil Brown’s bat is a touch below average and he’s a good fielder. That being said, there aren’t a lot of bright spots expected for 2008.
Rangers 76 - Note to Tom Hicks: Seriously, you need to find some starters, we’re not kidding. However, trading Edinson Volquez for a guy who might end up being listed in the same category as Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore isn’t a bad thing. And I do like the bullpen, Ben Broussard, and Kason Gabbard.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Of all the teams that finished below .500 in 2007, which one do you think will increase its win total the most in 2008? As usual, we’re using approval voting, so you can vote for multiple teams, if you like. 2007 win totals are listed in parantheses.

Popularity: 12% [?]

Or, why ARod is worth $35 million to the Yankees and nobody else.

Update: This is a re-write of an earlier article, using correct numbers.

Most major league organizations wouldn’t do well if they spent their entire payroll on free agents. Free agents are overpriced and tend to be on the wrong side of the aging curve. For the fun of it, let’s see how good a team like the Cardinals would be if they spent their entire $90 million budget on free agents:

$90 Million Isn’t Close To Average; $200 Million Is Better
A team of replacement level players making the league minimum would cost about $14 million dollars, leaving $76 million dollars for improving beyond the 48 wins of a replacement level team. Free agents cost about $4 million per marginal win these days, which would give our team 19 additional wins (76/4). Obviously, 67 total wins for a $90 million payroll just won’t cut it. I think we can agree that building your team through free agency is a poor plan for most teams. Free agents are just pieces to fill holes.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ $200 million payroll would be expected to buy 47 marginal wins [(200-14)/4] via free agency for a total of 95 wins per season. That’s playoff caliber, and is pretty much what they’ve done recently.

Now, the Yankees don’t spend every dollar on free agents, so why haven’t they done better than 95 wins? Well, one reason is that they spend their free agent dollars poorly. In 2007, all of these guys cost more than $4 million per win: Mike Mussina, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano. Oh, and New York paid $9 million to players on other teams. Ouch. (For the record, ARod was 10 wins better than replacement, fully earning his contract. Considering the Yankees only paid two-thirds his salary, ARod was a steal.)

You Can’t Realistically Spend $200 Million On Free Agents
The other problem with buying 95 wins through free agency is that there’s a limited number of roster spots that contribute to the team. It’s nearly impossible to fill them all with adequately priced free agent talent. Assume that you need to sign nine position players, five starting pitchers, and three top relievers. That’s 17 players to pay with $186 million dollars, or $11 million each. For $11 million dollars, you’re expecting almost 3 wins per player. In 2007, there were about 100 position players at least 2.5 wins above replacement. However, just under half of those 100 have ever been eligible for free agency, meaning the Yankees would need to sign one out of every five top position player free agents (again, assuming they could properly identify them). The pitchers would be a similar ratio, I’m sure. I don’t see signing one out of every five players to reasonable contracts as a realistic plan. They need to do something else, too.

How The Yankees Should Handle It
Every off-season, the Yankees identify their holes and then either sign the best available free agents or make a deal for the best available high-priced trade-bait. The problem is that having the money to spend doesn’t mean that there are the right players to spend it on. Giving Barry Zito $150 million doesn’t make him perform like a $150 million player.

Therefore, like every other team, the Yankees need to develop some talent from within. They need to begin by building like a small-market team: accumulate draft picks, give bullpen roles and back-of-the-rotation spots to young pitchers, and consistently have guys like Robinson Cano available to step in when older players are wisely allowed to leave.

Only after the Yankeees spend their first $75 million intelligently and efficiently should the they do things other teams can’t afford. These other avenues are inefficient spending compared to the first $75 million, but if the Steinbrenners are willing to spend extra to win, this approach will get them the most wins, well above 95:

1. buy out their own players’ arbitration years — In return, those players will likely commit to a year or two of free agency at below-market value. This is an approach even smaller market teams can take, but the Yankees should do it with anybody of value — it’s cheaper than signing a free agent from another team.
2. international scouting and signings — I don’t mean large posting fees from Japan, as those guys really fall in the same category as MLB free agents. I’m talking about scouting Latin American countries and offering moderate contracts to young players with potential. Not everyone will work out, but throw enough spaghetti and… you know the rest.
3. trade cheap non-stars for more expensive talent — Melky Cabrera’s an issue for the Yankees. He’s slightly better than league-average and makes next-to-nothing, so obviously he’s a deal. But if the Yankees are aiming for 110 wins, that’s not good enough. They should trade him to another team in return for a better player earning a bit below the free-agent rate, Carl Crawford for example. Both players are bargains, but each fits better with the payroll of the other team. Robinson Cano, on the other hand, is as good as almost anyone the Yankees might look to sign, and thus is a definite keeper.
4. big-sticker draft picks — This approach is becoming known as the Detroit Tiger strategy (Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello are great examples). Some high school and college players fall in the draft because their demands for signing bonuses scare low-payroll teams. Most of them are still worth the price tag (expected return well under $4 million per win) and the Yankees should jump all over them. It’s like signing cheap free agents and the only downside is that you have to wait a few years to reap the benefits.
5. the best of the best free agents — The Yankees can’t sign an All-Star at every position, but they should sign future Hall Of Famers whenever possible, even though they cost $4 million per marginal win. You just can’t spend a full $200 million on small-market approaches. And for all the fiscal responsibility they’d be showing, the Steinbrenners wouldn’t be happy with a consistent 85-win, $125 million payroll. The last piece of the puzzle is shelling out $35 million per season to Arod and $25 million to Johan Santana. Whenever you can get one player who’s worth 8-10 wins on their own, you do it. Why? Because one BMW is better than five Jettas. If two-thirds of the team is built internally, there are a limited number of players you’ll be signing as free agents. In order to spend your entire free agent budget, you need to find players that are deserving of high salaries.

For the Yankees, the key is to build a foundation of reasonably priced players so that they’re only overspending on the best of the best, not on everybody. If the Yankees learn to develop stud young players to contribute alongside free agent stars, 110-win teams are not an unreasonable expectation. The first $75 million should create an 80-win team, and the additional $125 million tacks on 30 wins. George is right when he says his team should be better than 95 wins given a $200 million dollar payroll.

Popularity: 8% [?]

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot (and I agree), this year we may actually end up seeing the two best teams in the World Series (well, the best team from each league, that is.)

Colorado’s already made it, and posted the best run differential in the National League. For some reason they were lumped in with the Diamondbacks as a team that was lucky to make it to the NLCS. But other than a crazy run to end the season, the Rockies shouldn’t be seen as a fluke.

In the American League, both the Indians and Red Sox finished the season with 96 wins, so it’s appropriate that the ALCS is going to seven games. But based on run differential, Boston was the better team, out-Pythaging Cleveland 101 to 92.

So if Boston wins tonight, we really will have the best of the AL versus the best of the NL, which is exactly what the World Series was meant to measure. That’s not to say the best team will win the World Series, but at least we won’t have the fiasco of the ‘06 Cardinals again.

Popularity: 3% [?]

You know all those people who say they have to pick the Braves to win the NL East until they finally don’t. Well, they better start thinking now about who they’re picking in 2007.

Popularity: 2% [?]