skyking162

Dave Cameron sums it all up pretty well over at Fangraphs. But here’s what it boils down to — Rich Harden still has significant injury issues even though he’s made eleven straight starters. (Can you say, “selling high”?) In return, the A’s received three league-average players that are cost-controlled. I especially like Murton, who sports a career MLB OPS+ of 105 with good corner defense. With the A’s current stockpile of minor league arms and Beane’s obvious ability to look past ERAs and find quality players off the scrap heap, replacing Harden’s 5-7 starts in 2008 shouldn’t be tough, and the same thing goes for Chad Gaudin, who I’m not going to mention again.

Also, if you haven’t already, check out Dave’s series on the 50 most valuable commodities in baseball, where commodity is defined as a player’s production given his current contract. I agree 100% with his choice of Evan Longoria at number one. Why? I left this comment at FanGraphs:

Imagine it’s January, 2014. Gas costs $7.50 a gallon and 850 square-foot apartments in NYC cost $4800 per month. Longoria just became a free agent after his six years of slavery to the Rays, coming off two MVP seasons of 140 OPS+ offense and stellar defense at third. He’s set to sign a huge free agent contract — $25MM per year? $35MM per year? Nope, he signs for three more years at $11MM per season. That’s what Carlos Silva’s earning in 2008, when gas is only $4.25 per gallon. Yeah, that’s a good deal for the Rays.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Patrick Sullivan pointed out that while the Twins gave up the best player in any off-season trade, they didn’t receive the best package in return. I suppose I agree, if I’m forced to buy into the assumption that contracts and salaries don’t matter.

But what if we do consider money? Which side of all the major trades would you rather have for your team?

I’m only including prospects in the poll if they’re expected to be major players in 2008. As a reminder, young players are under club control for six years before they hit free agency, with the last three going to arbitration. Basically, players earn the league minimum their first three seasons in the majors, 40% of the free agent rate their fourth year, 60% their fifth year, and 80% their last year under team control. Unless they sign other contracts, of course. (Contract information is from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Johan Santana
The Mets, on one level, were trading for one year of Santana at about $15 million plus possible draft picks if he became a free agent. Of course, Santana wouldn’t have accepted the trade if he wasn’t signed to his huge $22 million per season, seven year deal. You can decide what it’s worth to trade for the right to sign Santana to a free agent contract.

Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett
Garza’s entering his first official year on the major league roster, while Bartlett’s entering his second.

Delmon Young & Brandon Harris
Both players are entering their second year in the majors.

Nick Swisher
Swisher is signed through 2011 ($3.5M, $5.3M, $6.75M, $9M) with a team option for 2012 ($10.25M with $1M buyout).

Miguel Tejada
Tejada’s signed for $13M per season for two more years.

Dan Haren
Haren’s signed through 2010 ($4M, $5.5M, $6.75M). The last year is technically a team option, but automatically kicks in by reaching an innings pitched threshold.

Ryan Church and Brian Schneider
Church is entering his third year of service time while Schneider has two more years at $4.9M per season left.

Lastings Milledge
Milledge is entering his second year in the majors.

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis
Cabrera’s entering his fifth year in the majors and Willis will earn $7M, $10M, and $12M over the next three years.

Edgar Renteria
Renteria’s cost to the Tigers is $3M in 2008 with a team option for $11M in 2009. Boston is paying $8M of his 2008 salary and would cover the $3M buyout of the option year.

Andrew Miller and Camerin Maybin
Miller has a crazy contract that, among other things, required he be called up in September of 2006. You can basically treat him as a player entering his first year of service, however. Maybin is also entering his first season, but without all the contract shenanigans.

Erik Bedard
Bedard’s entering his fifth year of service.

Adam Jones and George Sherrill
Jones is entering his first year in the majors and Sherrill his third.

Understanding that it took different levels of sacrifice to acquire each package mentioned above — and ignoring that fact — which contract(s) would you most like to have? You may, as usual, select multiple answers.

Popularity: 14% [?]

If you’re a Mariners’ fan, you’ve got to be excited about seeing Erik Bedard in your rotation. He’s one of my new favorite pitchers and probably one of the top ten starters in the majors. He’s definitely a better player than Adam Jones, but I’m not sure this trade makes Seattle that much better of a team over the next year or two, let alone once Bedard is eligible for free agency. USSMariner’s beaten this horse to death, but here are the bullet points:

• The Mariners will pay Bedard $4 million in 2008 and now will likely sign a Kenny Lofton/Brad Wilkerson type to play right field. That’s another $5 million or so. Think about what the team could have bought for $9 million if they’d kept Jones — Barry Bonds? Dump Sexson for someone who’s a good first basemen? Sign or trade for a league-average pitcher?
• Brandon Morrow’s not in the rotation. He’s the guy you refused to trade for Bedard and he’s not even going to be an important piece of the puzzle?
• George Sherrill is a good reliever. Sure, losing him is only a small loss, but small losses add up.
• The 2007 team wasn’t really an 88-win team, outperforming their Pythagorean record by quite a bit. It’s probably going to take more than Bedard to make the playoffs, but it seems as though Bavasi’s done with major tweaks. If you’re going to sell the farm, don’t half-ass it.
• Once 2010 arrives, you have to pay Bedard free agent money to keep him around. Free agents are already overpriced — there’s no advantage in also giving up players for a guy you’re going to overpay. Meanwhile, Jones will likely be an above-average player making not much money for three more years. And the other prospects may be contributing as well. In two years do you want Jones + prospects + big money free agent or just a big money free agent? Yes, that’s rhetorical.
• It’s unfair to expect Bedard’s 2007 ratios over 200+ innings. Sure, he took the next step last year, but players who have career seasons don’t tend to improve again the following year. And a pitcher with an injury history is no safe bet. In general, pitchers can be expected to lose 10% of their innings year over year. The M’s may get lucky with Bedard, but they could very well be unlucky. A reasonably positive expectation would be a 3.50 ERA over 180 IP not a 2.75 ERA over 200 IP as I’ve seen other places.

Adding Bedard makes the Mariners a few wins better this year and next. But over the next six or seven years, they’re probably netting 15 to 20 fewer wins. That trade-off is only worth it if you need the few wins to get over a hump. The 2008 Mariners, even with Bedard, are only within sight of the foothills of any playoff hump.

Popularity: 11% [?]

Nick Swisher was just traded to the White Sox for two excellent pitching prospects (one who’s almost ready for the big leagues and one who’s a couple years away) and a mediocre outfield prospect. Who won the trade? I’m going to say that the White Sox received more total value, but the A’s made the smarter trade.

Nick Swisher is really good (four wins in ‘07) and has five years left on an extremely reasonable contract:

08:$3.5M
09:$5.3M
10:$6.75M
11:$9M,
12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)

Four wins on the free agent market costs about $18 million dollars. Over five years the White Sox will save about $55 million bucks ($90 million in value minus the $35 million in contract costs.)

The return on the two pitching prospects is quite risky — both could be aces or both could get injured. But I don’t think a #2 and a #4 starter is an unreasonable assumption. Through their third arbitration years, that’s maybe $40 million in savings above contract cost for the A’s.

So, it appears the White Sox are getting more for their money than the Athletics. However, neither team will compete for a couple years. The A’s are fully admitting they can’t compete with the Angels and are counting on a run in 2010 or 2011. The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength. Neither team will make the playoffs with or without Nick Swisher, but only the Athletics realize that.

If we ignore the next two seasons, the picture is different. Swisher’s value in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is much less, because his salary is much higher. He’d cost $54 million on the free agent market and will cost the Sox $26 million, a savings of only $28 million. Compared to the $40 million in savings the A’s will get from the two prospect pitchers, that’s not going to cut it.

Swisher will help keep the White Sox above .500 for a few years, but won’t be enough to help them catch the Indians or Tigers. The A’s also won’t compete for a couple seasons, but when their farm system matures, they’ll be a playoff contender. Advantage, Oakland.

Popularity: 7% [?]

JC Bradbury made a great point about the Marlins trading Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers: Willis wouldn’t have been a Marlin in the first place if not for another Florida “salary dump” deal in 2002. Prior to that season, the Cubs decided they needed some top notch pitching, trading for Antonio Alfonseca and Matt Clement. The Marlins received Willis and Julian Tavarez in return. Not bad.

Nobody likes when big name players get traded away and nobody likes counting on unknown players producing down the road. But it usually works.

(In researching this post, I discovered that Florida once plucked Johan Santana from Houston in the Rule 5 draft, then immediately flipped him to Minnesota in a pre-arranged swap. Oops.)

Popularity: 9% [?]