skyking162

There’s a rumor floating around the internet that the White Sox might trade Paul Konerko to the Angels for Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana. Everybody seems to think this trade would be a major coup for the Angels. Are they stupid?

Where does Konerko play on the Angels? Some suggest first base, because he has a better stick than Casey Kotchman. However, Kotchman’s actually not that much worse offensively. In fact, he posted a higher OPS+ last year, 119 to 116. Over the past three seasons, Konerko’s OPS+ is 129, but Konerko will be 32 next year while Kotchman will be 25.

There’s also the issue of fielding, where Kotchman runs circles around Konerko. The Angels’ first baseman deserved the gold glove, saving his team 13 compared to average. Konerko was 4 runs below average. There’s no reason to replace Kotchman with a worse player who’s older and more expensive.

On the other hand, Konerko could DH, a role currently by Garret Anderson. Konerko’s a definite upgrade, and it’s unlikely both Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. will hold up for the whole season anyways. But is the cost of upgrading to Konerko worth the price?

Nope. Konerko makes $12 million per season through 2010. Based on 2007 numbers, Konerko is 15 runs better than replacement overall. (Poor fielding first baseman have to hit like crazy to be worth anything. Konerko is merely good.) If he can revert to 2005-06 form, he’s more like a 30 run player. At $4 million per 10 runs, Konerko’s worth between $6 and $12 million per season. It’s not even a good deal to pay the man under his current contract, let alone give up two young players for that right.

And how good are those two young players the Angels would have to trade to the White Sox? Howie Kendrick’s a huge talent, and Ervin Santana is a decent gamble.

Kendrick was near the top of most prospect lists before the 2006 season, and posted a 108 OPS+ as a 23 year old second baseman in 2007. He’s pretty similar to Dustin Pedroia offensively, although Pedroia takes more walks. Kendrick’s also a solid fielder, coming in 5 runs above average, all for a salary not measured in the millions. In half the playing time, Kendrick was as valuable as Konerko last season.

Ervin Santana appears to be inconsistent. He posted ERAs of 4.65 and 4.28 his first two years in the majors before seeing that number balloon into the high 5’s last year. Santana’s weakness is giving up the long-ball, a function of his high flyball rate. Assuming league-average defense and a league-average percentage of flyballs turning into homeruns, Santana’s actually been a very consistent pitcher, posting xFIPs of 4.98, 5.11, and 4.93. There’s still room for improvement, of course, but that seems to be who Santana is as a pitcher, which pegs him as a typical fourth starter.

So, is there any reason the White Sox wouldn’t be the team jumping at this trade? They’d unload an overrated first baseman who’s being paid more than he’s worth. In return they’d receive a better-than-average second baseman who makes no money and has the potential to be a star. Oh, and throw in a relatively cheap fourth starter.

Photo courtesy of MLB.com

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Nick Swisher was just traded to the White Sox for two excellent pitching prospects (one who’s almost ready for the big leagues and one who’s a couple years away) and a mediocre outfield prospect. Who won the trade? I’m going to say that the White Sox received more total value, but the A’s made the smarter trade.

Nick Swisher is really good (four wins in ‘07) and has five years left on an extremely reasonable contract:

08:$3.5M
09:$5.3M
10:$6.75M
11:$9M,
12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)

Four wins on the free agent market costs about $18 million dollars. Over five years the White Sox will save about $55 million bucks ($90 million in value minus the $35 million in contract costs.)

The return on the two pitching prospects is quite risky — both could be aces or both could get injured. But I don’t think a #2 and a #4 starter is an unreasonable assumption. Through their third arbitration years, that’s maybe $40 million in savings above contract cost for the A’s.

So, it appears the White Sox are getting more for their money than the Athletics. However, neither team will compete for a couple years. The A’s are fully admitting they can’t compete with the Angels and are counting on a run in 2010 or 2011. The White Sox seem to think they have a shot the next couple years, but they really don’t — the fielders are awful, the studs are aging, and the pitching is no longer a strength. Neither team will make the playoffs with or without Nick Swisher, but only the Athletics realize that.

If we ignore the next two seasons, the picture is different. Swisher’s value in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is much less, because his salary is much higher. He’d cost $54 million on the free agent market and will cost the Sox $26 million, a savings of only $28 million. Compared to the $40 million in savings the A’s will get from the two prospect pitchers, that’s not going to cut it.

Swisher will help keep the White Sox above .500 for a few years, but won’t be enough to help them catch the Indians or Tigers. The A’s also won’t compete for a couple seasons, but when their farm system matures, they’ll be a playoff contender. Advantage, Oakland.

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